There's no easy way out of this

Waymer said
I don't necessarily disagree with you on two things -- that you can get a franchise QB without tanking, and that success rate is low (since 1999 -- not counting this season -- only 28 of 74 have been "franchise" QBs). Both can be true. But it is also true that we shouldn't discount that most QBs in the NFL that find success end up being high picks.

Just look at the breakdown of current NFL QBs:

1st round picks: L. Jackson, J. Allen, J. Burrow, J. Winson (D. Watson), B. Nix, A. Richardson (J. Flacco), T. Lawerence, P. Mahomes, J. Herbert, D. Maye, A. Rodgers, W. Levis, K. Murray, C. Williams, J. Goff, J. Love, M. Stafford, S. Darnold (JJ McCarthy), D. Jones, B. Mayfield, J. Daniels (Mariota 1st), CJ Stroud, T. Tagovailoa (potentially back next week according to sources).

23 of 32 teams have starting 1st round QBs.

2nd round picks: J. Hurts, G. Smith, A. Dalton (B. Young was 1st), Derek Carr (Rattler 5th)

27 of 32 teams have 1st/2nd round starting QBs.

3rd round picks: R. Wilson (J. Fields was 1st)

4th round picks: K. Cousins (Penix is 1st) , D. Prescott

30 of 32 teams have 1st-4th round stating QBs.

6th: G. Minshew

7th: B. Purdy

...There are a number of high draft picks in there as well as backups beyond the ones I listed in parentheses. You can call it user bias that all these guys are still in the league, but it's a reality -- most starting QBs in the NFL have to come from the 1st round. Rare is the Tom Brady.

I don't disagree. Although some of that is because teams rightly value QBs so highly they will force guys into the first round that might not on talent and production alone belong there. It's also because 1st round pick have talent so other teams keep giving them a shot. Lots of those first round guys aren't with the first team that drafted them and many are guys on their first contract. Guys not with the team that drafted them in the first: iWinston, D. Watson, J. Flacco, J. Goff, M. Stafford, S. Darnold, B. Mayfield, Mariota. So it's a bit of a chicken and egg thing sometimes.

But my point was that "tanking" wasn't necessary, not that you shouldn't draft a QB in the 1st round. As in tanking to get a top 5 or top 10 pick. First because there isn't a QB worth that high of a pick in every draft. Second because there is no guarantee of success just because you take a QB in the first round. And frankly one of the main reason 1st round QBs fail is because they go to bad teams, go to teams that run a scheme that is a bad fit , and/or that don't put a good team around them. More of these 1st round QBs would probably succeed if they went to better teams that put them in the right system. It's why guys like Mayfield and Darnold have done well in Tampa and Minny. They finally got to teams that used them right.

Anyway, I not at all saying that you don't take a QB in the first round. I'm saying you don't purposely tank to get a higher pick 1st round pick for a QB because that sets your first round QB up for failure and there is not guarantee that the guy you tanked for is a franchise QB. So, if you tank you end up with a good QB with nobody around him or you end up with a bad QB with no good players where teams often sit for many, many years like the Jets, Cleveland, and Carolina. Either way, you're not winning many games.

But sure, if you see a QB that is only going to be available in the upper part of round 1 that the team is convinced will be a franchise QB then go up and get him with future assets. I don't think that guy is there this year, but the college season isn't over yet.