2024 Tropical Weather Thread

18z GFS is now putting a hurricane in the gulf next week. It's been very consistent showing the development of this storm and it is now inside the 200 hour window. It has not been consistent with the placement or track direction. Most runs up until now have kept it in the Caribbean and then East of Florida. The ICON and Euro are showing very similar upper level air patterns but do not show a storm yet and will just now start getting inside that 10 day window over the next day or two.

Low likelihood of this becoming anything major for the northern gulf coast at this point. I'd say a 20-30% chance this could eventually be a Florida problem. I'd say at least 50% chance this will not be a US problem or a hurricane at any point but here is the early call of "worth watching" and "signal".