Not looking good for Dorsey/Ellis @ 10

Let's do some math.

The Saints pick at #10. There are two very good DT prospects. That means for the Saints to get one or the other, eight of the top ten picks have to go in another direction.

By my accounting, there are 5 players who almost everyone thinks is top 10 material besides Dorsey and Ellis: Jake Long, Chris Long, McFadden, Gholston, and Matt Ryan. That leaves three players that need to be non-DTs for either Ellis or Dorsey to fall to the Saints.

Most people agree that KC would like to take a DT, but are so hurting for OLs that they may reach for one even if Jake Long is gone. Many people think NE and and the Jets could pass on Dorsey, needing CBs instead. Then Cincinnati would have to pass at 9.

That's too many ifs. I think KC might pass, but Cincy probably takes one of them. Then there's Atlanta, who needs everything. If they don't go QB they will probably go DL.

The Saint's best chance is to trade up to #7 or #8, if Dorsey falls that far. Otherwise, we'll be taking a CB.