Making the calls that the stats say will produce more points, but I think that works better in a sport like baseball where over 100+ games you can let those statistical averages play out and get the +games won out of them.
In a sport like football, those high variance “better” plays runs a risk of hitting a bad run and the short season means you aren’t picking up those games later.
You don’t have to call the game scared, but I think collecting easy points rather than going for the higher risk more points or bust play is probably best in most situations.