Ukraine
and if Urals oil pbl continues to decline in price, that will put even more pressure on the FOREX for the Ruble, devaluing it even further.
I think if it passes 110, then you see folks inside Russia begin to see hints of panic at the banks. They are losing purchasing power every, single, day.
Just 2 months ago, if you were Russian looking to go on vacation, a $350 airfare ( for instance- if in USD ) was 28,700 rubles. Today is 37,715. thats a pretty remarkable increase in a very short period of time. If you had a family of 4, thats 150,860 ( roughly 36,000 MORE. )
The AVERAGE income in Russia is around 100,000 rubles/mo ( Thats Moscow ) 80,000 for St Petersburg and as low as 45-60,000 in the East.
And thats just vacation. Everything will cost more - imports especially - and that will put more pressure on the financial system as a whole. Exports should go up, since the Ruble is devalued, but they dont produce a lot of exports. Top 3 is Oil, Gas and Coal. Next is Iron and fertilizer.
But remember, oil prices need to be around $65 or more...start getting below $65 and its no longer profitable.
ts the spiral down- if that is starting, its going to be damn near impossible to stop.
This tracks pretty well with Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee - two of their largest trading partners
So this is not a "decoupling" as some have speculated. This could be the beginnings of a collapse
and if Urals oil pbl continues to decline in price, that will put even more pressure on the FOREX for the Ruble, devaluing it even further.
I think if it passes 110, then you see folks inside Russia begin to see hints of panic at the banks. They are losing purchasing power every, single, day.
Just 2 months ago, if you were Russian looking to go on vacation, a $350 airfare ( for instance- if in USD ) was 28,700 rubles. Today is 37,715. thats a pretty remarkable increase in a very short period of time. If you had a family of 4, thats 150,860 ( roughly 36,000 MORE. )
The AVERAGE income in Russia is around 100,000 rubles/mo ( Thats Moscow ) 80,000 for St Petersburg and as low as 45-60,000 in the East.
And thats just vacation. Everything will cost more - imports especially - and that will put more pressure on the financial system as a whole. Exports should go up, since the Ruble is devalued, but they dont produce a lot of exports. Top 3 is Oil, Gas and Coal. Next is Iron and fertilizer.
But remember, oil prices need to be around $65 or more...start getting below $65 and its no longer profitable.
ts the spiral down- if that is starting, its going to be damn near impossible to stop.