State Of The NFC South Entering Week 13 - The Road To The Playoffs
Currently ATL leads the division and controls their own destiny. TB trails them by 1 game in 2nd place. The Saints are in 3rd place in the division. Realistically, the Saints have no chance to make the postseason as a Wildcard team. Not impossible but highly unlikely. It would take a drastic meltdown by several teams in front of them. However, they do have a slim chance of winning the NFL South Division. They currently trail ATL by 2 games and TB by 1 game with 6 games left to play. Ideally the Saints will win out and ATL will lose at least 3 of their remaining 6 and TB will lose at least 2 of their remaining 6 including their week 18 matchup with the Saints. Every loss by the Saints from this point forward increasingly reduces the odds of them making the playoffs but that doesn't make it impossible, just improbable. Both ATL and TB have the inside track on winning the division and both are still in contention for a Wildcard spot. Short of the Saints winning the division outright, let's take a look at what the Tiebreaker Rules are where the Division is concerned.
From NFL Football Operations as viewed at www.operations.nfl.com
Two Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after a third club or other clubs are eliminated during any step, the tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.)
Standings - Detailed View
Remaining NFC South Schedules:
(6-5) ATL: LAC, @MIN, @LV, NYG, @WAS, CAR
(5-6) TB: @CAR, LV, @LAC, @DAL, CAR, NO.
(4-7) NO: LAR, @NYG, WAS, @gb, LV, @TB
(3-8) CAR: TB, @PHI, DAL, ARZ, @TB, @atl
The Saints lose out on Tiebreakers whether it's a two-way tie or a three-way tie if ATL is involved. Assuming the Saints beat TB in week 18 they would have split the Head-to-Head matchups with each team in the division.
They would lose a two-way Tiebreaker to ATL based on win/loss games within the division. ATL is 4-1 in the division and can do no worse than 4-2 with a loss to CAR. The Saints are 2-3 in the division and can do no better than 3-3.
ATL needs to lose at least 3 of their remaining 6 games and the Saints would need to win enough games to win the division outright with the best overall record over both ATL and TB to make the playoffs.
TB is 1-2 in the division and could finish as low as 1-5 or as high as 4-2 in the division.
In a 2-way tie with TB the Saints would lose even if they beat TB in week 18 provided TB beats CAR in both of their remaining matchups. TB would have a 4-2 division record. Again, the Saints can do no better than a 3-3 division record. For the Saints and TB to finish in a 2-way tie, they would both have to finish ahead of ATL, and TB would have to lose a game to CAR and also to NO. The Saints can't lose another NFC game and win a Tiebreaker with TB due to conference records. It's unlikely that TB and NO finish in a 2-way tie that the Saints win the Tiebreaker. TB currently has a 5-3 conference record, and the Saints currently have a 3-4 conference record.
The Saints would lose out on the 3-way Tiebreaker no matter what due to their division record to ATL and possibly even TB. There's no scenario that the Saints win a 3-way Tiebreaker.
CAR winning out to go 9-8 and all other 3 division teams finish worse is their best chance of winning the division. The schedule makers didn't do them any favors with their final 2 games on the road against division opponents. They would need to win out to finish 9-8. That would give them a 4-2 division record and a 9-4 conference record. That could also put them in the Tiebreaker conversation. Their fans can still dream of this happening. Why Not? Dream Big!
As bleak as the outlook appears with the Saints currently having only a slight chance to win the division, it's not out of the question providing they keep winning. All 4 division teams have some tough matchups ahead down the stretch.
To improve the Saints odds, it could all start this week. The Saints have to win Sunday against the Lambs. A loss by the Dirty Birds to the Chargers would go a long way to closing the gap. A CAR upset over TB would be icing on the cake. If either of the first two don't happen the odds go from slim to grim with 5 weeks remaining afterwards. If either or both of the first 2 happen I'll return and give an update in this thread.
Who Dat!
Final Thoughts: I may have missed something in my analysis. If so, feel free to add or correct. I don't mind.
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Currently ATL leads the division and controls their own destiny. TB trails them by 1 game in 2nd place. The Saints are in 3rd place in the division. Realistically, the Saints have no chance to make the postseason as a Wildcard team. Not impossible but highly unlikely. It would take a drastic meltdown by several teams in front of them. However, they do have a slim chance of winning the NFL South Division. They currently trail ATL by 2 games and TB by 1 game with 6 games left to play. Ideally the Saints will win out and ATL will lose at least 3 of their remaining 6 and TB will lose at least 2 of their remaining 6 including their week 18 matchup with the Saints. Every loss by the Saints from this point forward increasingly reduces the odds of them making the playoffs but that doesn't make it impossible, just improbable. Both ATL and TB have the inside track on winning the division and both are still in contention for a Wildcard spot. Short of the Saints winning the division outright, let's take a look at what the Tiebreaker Rules are where the Division is concerned.
From NFL Football Operations as viewed at www.operations.nfl.com
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.Two Clubs
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best net points in common games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after a third club or other clubs are eliminated during any step, the tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format.)
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
- Best net points in common games
- Best net points in all games
- Best net touchdowns in all games
- Coin toss
Standings - Detailed View
| NFC SOUTH | W | L | T | PCT | PF | PA | Net Pts | Home | Road | Div | Pct | Conf | Pct | Non-Conf | Strk | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0.545 | 244 | 274 | -30 | 3 - 3 - 0 | 3 - 2 - 0 | 4 - 1 - 0 | 0.800 | 6 - 2 - 0 | 0.750 | 0 - 3 - 0 | 2L | 2 - 3 - 0 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0.455 | 309 | 273 | 36 | 2 - 4 - 0 | 3 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 | 0.333 | 5 - 3 - 0 | 0.625 | 0 - 3 - 0 | 1W | 1 - 4 - 0 |
 New Orleans Saints | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0.364 | 262 | 260 | 2 | 3 - 3 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 3 - 0 | 0.400 | 3 - 4 - 0 | 0.429 | 1 - 3 - 0 | 2W | 2 - 3 - 0 |
 Carolina Panthers | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0.273 | 194 | 340 | -146 | 2 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 | 0.333 | 2 - 4 - 0 | 0.333 | 1 - 4 - 0 | 1L | 2 - 3 - 0 |
Remaining NFC South Schedules:
(6-5) ATL: LAC, @MIN, @LV, NYG, @WAS, CAR
(5-6) TB: @CAR, LV, @LAC, @DAL, CAR, NO.
(4-7) NO: LAR, @NYG, WAS, @gb, LV, @TB
(3-8) CAR: TB, @PHI, DAL, ARZ, @TB, @atl
The Saints lose out on Tiebreakers whether it's a two-way tie or a three-way tie if ATL is involved. Assuming the Saints beat TB in week 18 they would have split the Head-to-Head matchups with each team in the division.
They would lose a two-way Tiebreaker to ATL based on win/loss games within the division. ATL is 4-1 in the division and can do no worse than 4-2 with a loss to CAR. The Saints are 2-3 in the division and can do no better than 3-3.
ATL needs to lose at least 3 of their remaining 6 games and the Saints would need to win enough games to win the division outright with the best overall record over both ATL and TB to make the playoffs.
TB is 1-2 in the division and could finish as low as 1-5 or as high as 4-2 in the division.
In a 2-way tie with TB the Saints would lose even if they beat TB in week 18 provided TB beats CAR in both of their remaining matchups. TB would have a 4-2 division record. Again, the Saints can do no better than a 3-3 division record. For the Saints and TB to finish in a 2-way tie, they would both have to finish ahead of ATL, and TB would have to lose a game to CAR and also to NO. The Saints can't lose another NFC game and win a Tiebreaker with TB due to conference records. It's unlikely that TB and NO finish in a 2-way tie that the Saints win the Tiebreaker. TB currently has a 5-3 conference record, and the Saints currently have a 3-4 conference record.
The Saints would lose out on the 3-way Tiebreaker no matter what due to their division record to ATL and possibly even TB. There's no scenario that the Saints win a 3-way Tiebreaker.
CAR winning out to go 9-8 and all other 3 division teams finish worse is their best chance of winning the division. The schedule makers didn't do them any favors with their final 2 games on the road against division opponents. They would need to win out to finish 9-8. That would give them a 4-2 division record and a 9-4 conference record. That could also put them in the Tiebreaker conversation. Their fans can still dream of this happening. Why Not? Dream Big!
As bleak as the outlook appears with the Saints currently having only a slight chance to win the division, it's not out of the question providing they keep winning. All 4 division teams have some tough matchups ahead down the stretch.
To improve the Saints odds, it could all start this week. The Saints have to win Sunday against the Lambs. A loss by the Dirty Birds to the Chargers would go a long way to closing the gap. A CAR upset over TB would be icing on the cake. If either of the first two don't happen the odds go from slim to grim with 5 weeks remaining afterwards. If either or both of the first 2 happen I'll return and give an update in this thread.
Who Dat!
Final Thoughts: I may have missed something in my analysis. If so, feel free to add or correct. I don't mind.
.