superchuck500 said

I find these kinds of comments so interesting because statistically, homicide in New York City is about the same as it was between about 1915 and 1965 - and well, well below the spike years that started in the late 1960s and ended in the late 1990s. You're far less likely to be murdered in NYC now than any time since the Kennedy administration.

As of 12/1/2024, there have been 347 murders in NYC. Annualize for the extra month and you get 376. Take out a small spike during COVID (a trend that happened everywhere), and it has been fewer than 400 per year for about the last 15 years or so. There were more than 1,000 each year for 30 years - and it peaked at more than double that.

There's really only two explanations for thinking that homicide in NYC is out of control in 2024: (1) homicide to any degree is bad and should be condemned as out of control - which is certainly a valid take but it would also have to mean that homicide in NYC (and all places where rates are similar or worse - which is a very large number of areas) has been out of control for over 100 years.
OR
(2) the homicide in NYC in 2024 is being perceived differently. The mostly likely explanation for this would be the dramatically different volume of publicity of events (through so many different sources including social media). When you have 375 homicides in a year, and every one or most of them gets on your radar based on the information age we live in, it will certainly seem like it's happening all the time. Because it is, but also it's happening far less now than it did for most of our lives.

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