Basically, root for Ws by the Raiders vs Chargers and Chicago vs Seattle to get to #8. The other 4-12 teams have SOS so low that a win doesn't move the needle.
This is correct. Although the Jets play the Bills. If they win that could move the needle. It appears right now that #8 is about the best we could expect with a loss to the Bucs but #9/10 is the most realistic.