You're narrowing it to the last five seasons to fit your narrative without considering Sean Payton had to coach three of the last five seasons with below-average QBs or with a rookie, and he still managed only one losing season (eight wins) in that stretch. Payton is a next-level coach.
Those Dallas teams were loaded and Dak played his best football under Kellen Moore. We aren't a comparable situation. We will be in a much worse position and I don't think McCarthy is like Payton in his ability to take bad teams and elevate them. I think he's a sunny-day coach who does well when everything is going right.