With the 9th Pick in the 2025 draft, who should the Saints select? (merged)

3ParStillDriver said
Regarding your statement around #9, I agree.

The first part, you're also correct, I don't "know". But I also know that it doesn't matter what he thinks of Carr. He's going to lean on the run game his first year to start. If you truly understood football you would know that. The players will have an entire new offensive scheme to learn and get synced with. Even if every offensive player returns, it will take time for them to learn the scheme and get in sync. Training camp is not enough. Pre-season is not enough. The running game is the quickest and easiest offensive scheme for players to execute successfully. The passing game is not. We will very, very likely be a running team to start.

And drafting for the future still requires us to start looking at RB. Kamara will be 31 after this coming season. Miller can't stay healthy. Clyde misses games and practices due to PTSD. Whether your drafting for some help this season or for the future, we will likely add a RB.

This stuff isn't hard. Any and all sports are swimming with patterns and the NFL is no different. There are patterns that consistently work and patterns that don't. Just like with Dennis Allen, anyone who watched him coach the Raiders for 3 years saw patterns and knew he was very likely going to be bad. Just like with every first year coach, they tend to lean on the running game far more then passing unless you have a Peyton Manning/Tom Brady, prime Aaron Rodgers or prime Drew Brees long after shoulder surgery, which we don't.

The probability of what's going to happen is quite literally right there staring at us.

If looking at patterns in sports consistently worked then gambling would be a legitimate form of investment and we all know it isn't.

And what you are doing has nothing to do with probability. The probability in this situation is 50/50. We will either be a passing team or a running team. In this situation, you are just guessing at what we will do based on what you think are the patterns. But patterns are broken all the time. Regardless, even if it is probable that a young coach would lean on a running game, and it really isn't always the case, it doesn't mean that in the long term that is what he is going to do. And the long term is what drafting is about.

Beyond that, you can still be a running team without taking a RB at #9. And you can still have an elite RB without taking one at #9. Many of the elite RBs in the NFL right now weren't even first round picks.