With the 9th Pick in the 2025 draft, who should the Saints select? (merged)
If looking at patterns in sports consistently worked then gambling would be a legitimate form of investment and we all know it isn't.
And what you are doing has nothing to do with probability. The probability in this situation is 50/50. We will either be a passing team or a running team. In this situation, you are just guessing at what we will do based on what you think are the patterns. But patterns are broken all the time. Regardless, even if it is probable that a young coach would lean on a running game, and it really isn't always the case, it doesn't mean that in the long term that is what he is going to do. And the long term is what drafting is about.
Beyond that, you can still be a running team without taking a RB at #9.
Theres so much incorrect with this philosophy I don't even know where to begin. I'm not even sure if I want to as your responses display a very large level of stubbornness mixed with lack of recognition of not knowing what you don't know.
First, around RB @9. Good offenses require an elite, franchise player at QB or RB. QB is preferable. RB is necessary if you don't have an elite QB. We don't have an elite QB. We have an elite RB. One, that could be on the decline, as the vast majority of elite RB's all through NFL history started declining at age 30 or 31. Kamara turns 30 before start of next season.
Finding elite RB's is easier then finding elite QB's. It would be a lot easier for the saints to continue the path of being a running team then not while searching for an elite QB. It's also a better recipe for success then forgoing having elite RB's while searching for elite QB's.
probability of the situation is not 50/50. If I know what information I've given you, the pros not only know it to, but know it better then I.
Patterns are not broken all the time. Patterns consist of trends. Trends are only broken when a new trend is formed. Thus saying a new pattern is formed. A new pattern as not been formed. First year coaches with top offenses who did not inherit an elite QB, are very often running offenses to start. That trend has not been broken. Sean Payton, Matt Lefleur, Sean McVay, even Kevin O Connells first year with Vikes still had over 1600 yards rushing.
I'm done with this. there's no reason for me to argue it with you. If you don't get it, you don't get it.
And just so we're clear, gambling is a legitimate form of investment (especially since investments in all forms are a gamble, some more then others, because there is no such thing as a "sure investment"), which is exactly why so many of the same players return to the finals of the world series poker tables year in and year out along with people who made their wealth gambling on sports, and even daily fantasy bets.