Israel (now broader Mid East discussion)
I know that this thread has devolved into to a Baarbogast (pro-Israeli) v. Heathen Saint (pro-Palestinian) tweeting contest. Both sides tweets covered in propaganda. I’ve got just a few observations:
Hamas and Hezbollah (along with their sponsor, Iran) have no credible means of defeating Israel militarily and achieving their goal of Israeli extinction. The only way for them to achieve this goal is to isolate Israel from its sponsor, the United States and Western European allies.
Over the past few decades, Hamas has turned Gaza into an armed fortress. Their terror infrastructure is embedded in schools, hospitals, mosques, businesses, private homes, etc. The Palestinian people have allowed this to happen, either voluntarily or by coercion. There were no demonstrations against or condemnation of Hamas by the Palestinian people prior to 7 October.
The population of Gaza has been radicalized against Israel for decades and it is well-documented that children are taught at a very young age to hate Israel, Jewish people, and their supporters.
Knowing that the world is watching, what benefit does Israel gain from indiscriminately destroying Gaza and killing Palestinian children? On the flip side, what benefit does Hamas gain? Seems clear to me that if the only way to defeat Israel and for Hamas to achieve their aims is to drive a wedge between Israel and its Allies, illustrating the alleged genocide by Israel would be the way to go.
Is it not possible (more than likely, even) that many of these radicalized children have been martyred by Hamas? Older children as actual combatants and younger children put into harms way? It’s obvious by the way Hamas embedded itself throughout Gaza that they care not for the general population, so why would we think they wouldn’t use the death of children to further their goals.
Again, if the only way for Israel to lose this conflict is by losing its Allies and their financial and military support, why would the Israeli government tolerate indiscriminate killing of Palestinians and especially the children? I’m sure their have been unfortunate killings by some rogue members of the IDF…this happens in war and no nation can deny this has not happened before; however, it is in no way beneficial to Israel for this to happen. It is beneficial to Hamas for this to happen.
Is it not curious why Egypt, Jordan, or other Islamic countries won’t accept Palestinian refugees? They know that Hamas is embedded in this population and that the majority of the population is pro-Hamas and radicalized. They don’t want these people in their countries.
This appears to be a classic FAFO situation. The Palestinians in Gaza were supportive of Hamas, parents of Palestinian children allowed them to be radicalized in schools, and Palestinians celebrated the 7th of October attacks (and 9/11 as I clearly remember). I don’t know how we are now supposed to blame Israel for what is happening to them? It appears to be self-inflicted!
I generally hate the "both sides" argument that has become prevalent with moderates these days... but I really am sick of both sides here.
You set up a scenario that suggests Israel won't commit atrocities b/c it's the only way for it to lose American support. However, I don't think that's the way the approach the issue -- first, Israel correctly assumes that in general America will tolerate a brutal crackdown in response to terrorism. There are ample examples of human behavior that show we're willing to be brutal to others if we are scared -- and launching a terror attack that killed over a thousand people and raped dozens if not hundreds and kidnapped more, is frightening. There is very much a natural human reaction to want to hit back with everything no matter who gets in the way. Israel assumes America will side with them in that reaction. It doesn't mean it's a good reaction morally or even from a long term effectiveness. But it is understandable... even to the point of mass displacement of millions of non-combatants, women and children.
Second, Israel has spent decades influencing American political opinions. They have a high degree of confidence that they can lean on that no matter what they do in the short term. Especially when they have a precipitating event that is objectively horrific.
Finally, I think you might underestimate how much contempt some of the more extreme members of the Israeli population has for Americans, Christians, Arabs and Muslims. And that extreme wing has an outsized seat at the Israeli government's table. They are a definitive minority in Israel, but larger than you'd think and they wield outsized influence in the government. They really will push the bounds of what is acceptable, American opinion be damned. They also want from the river to the sea -- only all Israel.
As far as Palestinians being supportive of Hamas - that is not entirely true. They had elections decades ago, and Hamas got a plurality, but less than 50%, and they ran on economic issues at the time and criticized the very corrupt Palestinian Authority. Since that time they have squashed any opposition and about half of all Palestinians in Gaza were not even born when the last elections were held. It's really hard to say they support Hamas, when all you have is a police state there.
However, you are of course correct that there is tons of propaganda in the Palestinian population that begins from a young age, and anti-Semitism is virulent. You can say that it's a natural outcome of being conquered and then held under military occupation with limited rights for 70 years. Which is somewhat true -- in that, just as I can understand a brutal Israeli response to decades of terrorism, I can understand violent Palestinian reactions to brutal crackdowns and military occupation. It also doesn't make it moral or a sound long term strategy.
What all of the excuse making for both Israelis and Palestinians ignores is that people still have agency over themselves. I've been there, and they all have the internet, fairly open -- they have access to more information and books and so on. It is certainly harder for them, than for those of us who live in relative peace and security... but it is still all out there for them.
At this point, I'm ready to walk away from the whole mess -- basically say not a dollar or weapon more to anyone until they agree and make positive steps to enacting policies that affirm the right of every single person in that region to live in peace, security with a functional viable government that they believe represents them. At this point, I don't think we can dictate what that is -- they need to do that themselves, but we don't have to keep supporting this clusterfork.