With these answers, keep in mind my eyes are on Super Bowls and Championship games. Making the playoffs is fun, but... I want to be one of the last 4 teams standing as consistently as possible.
What makes Brady special to me? - I recognize that franchise QB's are essential for repeat runs deep into the playoffs. In fact, if you look at the teams most likely to repeatedly making Championship appearances, the two things they have in common is a great head coach and a franchise QB. Brady, has a knack for QB's having their best year under him going back to college years. Even in Carolina, Bridgewater was having a career year. Theres one single season that didn't work well and that was with Sam Darnold, who mind you, also just cost the Vikings with his awful play with Kevin O'Connell at the helm and we know how good Kevin O'Connell is.
Burrow credits his growth to Brady. Bridgwater has a career year under him. Darnold tanks and was forced by Matt Rhule, and Brady then elevates Josh Allen to MVP and Allen very clearly wants to keep him in Buffalo. On top of that, no matter what defense Brady's offenses are up against, he finds ways for his offense to put up points. Usually a lot.
This gives reason to the idea that if Brady is head coach, at worst we will be similar to the 08 Saints. Putting up points but can't play defense. Given his success of elevating QB's, it also gives reason that he stands a decent shot at helping the franchise find a franchise QB, and grooming him even if Brady doesn't work out as HC. The next one in theory will have a franchise QB to open up our potential searches for coaches. Is that a risk to not work out? Absolutely. But a franchise QB is worth it imo. If Brady could not find us a top 10 QB, whether its by grooming Rattler or drafting or free agency (hopefully someone under 30), then that to me would be a bust. I like the odds though. And let me very clear about this. I don't believe for 1 minute that Mahomes would be Mahoming the way Mahomes does Mahomes if he had gone to the Raiders, or Browns or Patriots. Reid and Kelce had really, really, really big influences on his growth.
Having a guy who's never coached before tends to come with a big drive. So when I see a coach who has elevated offenses greatly wherever hes been and now wants a head coaching job, the odds seem in favor of success of at least being highly competitive. Throwing in the NFL becoming offensive driven more so then defense and franchise QB's becoming necessary, it all begins to add up.
Now, my question of wanting a new first time head coach over a guy who's won a SuperBowl. No. The NFL changes drastically, usually around every 5-7 years. The game keeps evolving. For that reason, I like to look back the past 5-7 years. McCarthy has not won a superbowl in around 15 years. That's double the lifespan of evolution in the NFL. So to me, I immediately throw out everything going back that far. The most impressive times for someone like McCarthy was around 2010. After 2014, Green Bay started as a struggling team, especially in post-seasons. Now some people want to blame that on Rodgers. But we saw it in Dallas also. 1-3 in post-seasons.
Another point, who can work with average to below average QB's? that question was somewhat answered with Joe Brady when Teddy Bridgewater was QB for Carolina and having a career year. The Panthers offense put up 350 pts. But Carolina finished 5-11, because the defense allowed 402. So we know Brady can work with average to below average QB's. Can McCarthy? Well. Going back 10 years. McCarthy also has an unknown. All of his successes have occurred with a top 10 QB. The moment that went away, so did his offense. He struggled entirely. Look at Cooper Rush. The injury to Prescott couldn't be helped and is unfortunate. If that hadn't happened, its very possible MM wouldn't even be a candidate and a deal would've gotten worked out. But he couldn't make Cooper Rush relevant. Brady made Bridgewater relevant. And soon, whether its this year or the next or even the one after that, our selected coach is either going to need to make Rattler relevant or find someone else. We can even go back to 2017 when Rodgers missed half the season. Hundley super struggled and McCarthy had loads of troubles getting the offense to work with Hundley. So maybe McCarthy isn't an unknown when it comes to not having top 10 QBs.
I know people love to compare Payton and McCarthy. And someone will say "But Payton didn't win a superbowl even longer, would you turn him down?" and the answer is no. Because in 2020 Payton still made the playoffs with Brees injured, then in 2021 nearly got us to the playoffs with a 9-8 record playing QB carousel which is impressive. Then he just took the leagues ranked least talented NFL team and made the playoffs with a rookie QB. The two, despite what many say looking at career wins and losses, are not remote close to the same.
There are currently 4 teams who need head coaches. We're the only ones considering McCarthy, while Brady is now supposedly being pursued by the Jags after Coen resigning with Tampa. Why is that? If McCarthy is so proven don't you think at least 4 out of the 7 teams who needed a head coach would look to him? Only none did except Saints and Bears. What do the two have in common? Their last head coaching decisions were absolutely atrocious. So ya, I'm basically saying I don't trust Loomis in this process. I find it extremely unlikely that anyone thinking Dennis Allen as a head coach was a good idea most assuredly wouldn't make the similair mistake again.
All of this makes Brady the obvious choice for me. And that's not even getting into when front office officials for Green Bay criticized what his play calling and game planning has turned into which only raises my concern for MM. And Dallas had a pretty stacked team in terms of talent. In fact you could argue that the only position we were better in was RB because of Kamara vs Rico.