None of us know who is or isn’t going to be the answer, no matter how confident we feel about it. Even if a coach turns out to be a bust, it’s not quite the validation of a prediction some might want to make that out to be; the failure rate for coaches is really high. Predicting failure (in all the ways people measure that) - whether a coach, a player, a team - is about the safest call in sports.
But I get why McCarthy doesn’t excite some people. I’m one of those people. I feel the most confident about him, and the short term future of the team, because he’s achieved success to an extent that places him among the game’s all time best. Can he continue that success here if given the chance? History says yes but that’s not a given.
He’s been around a long time and people feel like they know all there is to know about him - good and bad. The unknown of an unproven coach can be a lot more exciting. The risk calculation changes with that unknown, too. Brady and Moore are the kinds of candidates that I can get a lot more excited about while also accepting that odds are heavily in favor of neither one of them working out long term. McCarthy has built a decades long career because he’s consistently found a level of success that has earned him trust and ongoing employment as a head coach.