Saints to interview Mike McCarthy in middle of this week, 1/26-2/1 per Pelissero [Underhill: McCarthy would have to be the current favorite]

Could be. I do seem to recall that Payton didn't have as much influence early in his career, but I could be wrong.
What helped Payton most was that he had his quarterback early and it was apparent during the start of the 2006 season, even if Brees wasn’t lighting up the board with points. How Brees ran the offense gave everyone comfort.

Then there was the defense. It was an adept unit at playing with a lead but if the opposing defense kept the Saints out of the end zone and could counter with points of their own, things could get uncomfortable. This became apparent in the 2007-2008 seasons and Payton had to make a tough choice on a good friend, in the name of winning or going down with what was becoming a leaky ship.

Then 2009 happened and the Loomis-Payton relationship was permanently changed.