Kellen Moore most likely to be Saints coach; Saints meeting Moore again after Super Bowl, Kellen Moore has begun working on assembling staff

Sure, there aren't any that people are calling a sure thing, but that doesn't mean there are none. Now getting one at the spots you're picking becomes more difficult when there are so few. And it's never really a sure thing so there are risks to selecting one. Especially if you had to move up to get one. So I agree with your conclusion that it should change the draft strategy. But if Ward were to somehow fall to 9 (he won't) or Dart was there at 40 you would have to consider drafting one of them.
Trade down and get Dart and pick up an additional first.