Mike Garafolo: Saints are set to make a decision on Derek Carr within the next few weeks; likely to have multiple suitors if released

StudioSaint said
I get where your coming from, but the strategy of not paying for average to above average QB's and drafting rookie QB's until you find one that hits has failed at a high rate.

A team can pay for an average to above average QB and have winning records with them, while still also being able to get an above average to elite QB in the draft, without having a pick in the top 10 of the draft.

Compare the success rate of QB's taken in the top 10 to those taken outside of the top ten. The QB's in the top 10 have a much lower per capita success rate than those who are taken later.

Take it a step farther. Look at the successful QB's taken in the top 10 by the team that originally held that spot versus those taken by someone who traded up into that spot. For instance, Mahommes was drafted at number 10, but the Cheifs traded up to get him.

A team does not have to be have a top 10 draft spot to be able to draft a great QB. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaoron Rodgers were all taken outside the top 10. A lot of the most successful QB's were drafted somewhere from the 10th pick of the first round to the top of the second round. Jalen Hurts was drafted in the second round. Lamar Jackson was taken with the 32nd pick.

A team doesn't have to have a bad record to have a good chance at drafting a good QB. What they have to have is good scouting to identify good QB's in the draft and good coaching once they're drafted. And a front office willing to trade up to get their targeted player.

I'd argue that the success rate of teams with average to above average QBs is in the same range of failure rate as rookie QBs. In fact, I think there is really less failure for teams that go after the young vets that you hope just needed a fresh start. And I think that's because they have the money to build the rest of the team. And, they are ready to make a run if/when they do hit on a franchise QB. If you are paying someone like Carr or Cousins, you never have the money to build the team and you are never doing to have a franchise QB. It's really the worst of both worlds.

If you have your team built, the way the Saints thought they had the team built when Payton left, but you don't have a QB, then it makes sense to add the average to above average vet like Carr or Cousins. But, we you are at the point of a rebuild either because your guys got old or you decided to tear it down, guys like Carr and Cousins don't make sense because you don't have the money to rebuild the roster or, at least, jump start a rebuild.

Arguably, Carr was worth it for the first year when you thought your roster was ready to at least get in the playoffs and make some noise, but that's no longer the case. It's time to rebuild whether we like it or not and paying $40 million per year for an average QB hinders that rebuild. We might not have a choice this year, but next year it will definitely be time to move on.