Mike Garafolo: Saints are set to make a decision on Derek Carr within the next few weeks; likely to have multiple suitors if released
I'd argue that the success rate of teams with average to above average QBs is in the same range of failure rate as rookie QBs.
That argument is irrelevant to what I said.
I said that historically the per capita success rate of QB's drafted in the top 10 is not as good as the per capita success rate of QB's taken after the top 10 or taken in the top 10 by a team that traded up into the top 10.
I also said that history shows that QB's still on their rookie contracts are unlikely to make it to the Super Bowl and even fewer are able to win it. Burrows is one of the exceptions. He got to the Super Bowl and lost. He's not made it back since then.
The point I made is that a team can be competitive while paying and playing an average QB and still be able to get an above average to elite QB in the draft. They don't have to blow up their roster and let themselves suck for a year just to draft an above average to elite QB.
The Saints could have drafted Brees, Lamar and Hurts and others even though they were competitive in the seasons before each of those drafts.
In fact, I think there is really less failure for teams that go after the young vets...
I never said anything about the age of the free agent QB's that are average QB's. Young free agent QB's who are average cost just as much, and sometimes more, than the older ones.
Bottom line, over paying for an average QB to stay competitive does not keep a team from being able to draft a great QB. Great QB's are drafted outside of the top 10 draft picks amost every year. A team doesn't have to have the absolute best QB to win Super Bowls. If they did, the same team would win the Super Bowl every year unless their QB was injured or retired.