I don't think door #2 is going to happen. Loomis has said he wants to get the cap closer to even and he has been working on it for two years. He's not suddenly going YOLO with a mid-level starting QB and an aging roster. He's going to bet on this roster as a .500 roster this year and not create/spend $40 million in free agency to get us right back into the hole that we started in.
They could choose to do it, but it would go against what Loomis has said, what he has mostly done for the last two years, and the information that Moore was promised the team would be patient with him. If that's the case there is no reason to go YOLO this year. Especially when you can field likely just as competitive a team and get under the cap without doing it.
Before the cap was projected to go up $5 to $10 million, I was pretty convinced they would keep Carr for another year. But this cap increase makes moving on from Carr more feasible and might even make it make sense to do this year. And if we do move on from Carr this year, Demario, Cam, Hill, and Tyrann will more than likely be on the roster this year. If we keep Carr, they may not be.