Draft or Trade Down

3ParStillDriver said
Trading down value in part depends on how many players in this draft teams have marked with 1st round talent. Last I read, most teams had only about 12 players with 1st round talent. Teams aren't going to place value to trade to the top of 2nd round talent. It just doesn't happen as its horrible value for price. Forget about the "top 10 pick" talk. It's all about what teams grade.

So, we sit at 9. If there are only 12 players marked with first grade talent, just how many players actually have top 10 talent? I don't know the answer but I highly doubt its 9. So chances are, the amount of teams willing to trade up for 9 might be zero. And even if there are some, the chances they will give us a good value for the pick is incredibly diminished. Given the state of first round talent vs top 10 talent, its quite possible we have a team in the low 20's offer nothing but a 3rd or 4th.

At that point, trading down seems absolutely silly when comparing to who may be on the board still.

Given this state, I think its pretty much guaranteed that Graham, Adbul, Campbell and McMillan will be off the board. Likely even Warren, Jeanty and Grant as well unless a run on QB's occur, which may not because Ward and Sanders are the top two options and they both look terrible (Not Ward as much, he just doesn't look "good").

The more I think on it, the more I see an opportunity for Dart to be the 1st QB off the board if he puts up a strong combine compared to Sanders and Ward.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/...raft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps

Every yr the draft does not go like the mocks. And we sit here before the combine and the pro days. Some players that were not projected high will go high, some players will drop. Some teams will trade up for a player they love . If Carter , T-Mac and Graham are gone there will be a team that falls in love with a player that they think will be gone by the time they pick.

For us if those 3 players are gone I'd want Warren but not @ 9 I would no be opposed to Jeanty but also not @ 9, So if even if we just got a 3 from the Cowboys to move down to 12 so they could take Jeanty I'd do it and take Warren. If that were not available I'd try and get a 2nd and maybe a 3rd to move down to about 20 and take Grant.

The value in this draft is in the late 1st , 2nd and 3rd rnds not so much at the top . Picking up more day 2 picks will help the team more than sitting @ 9 if the 3 players I mentioned are gone