VolSaint said

I've been following the thread posted by SonOfNOLA discussing the possibility of cutting Carr due to the higher than expected cap increase in 2025. There's been some debate on whether or not we should go through with that and with that some confusion about the exact implications of each path. Because of this, I went to the OverTheCap calculator for the Saints and calculated the numbers for each possibility just to illustrate the two potential futures of the Saints.

I was originally going to make this a response in that thread but it grew rather long due to the screenshots. I also think it would be useful in general for people to see the numbers for themselves vs. going off what other people are saying. Also, I want to note that I don't have a full understanding of the cap, and that I'm mostly going off of what OTC tells me. There's a high chance I got something wrong, and if that's the case, please let me know.

Possibility 1: Saints Keep Derek Carr

Pre-June 1st Cap Compliance:


To become cap compliant, there is no possible scenario in which we don't restructure or cut Carr. Therefore, for possibility 1, we restructure Carr to save $30 million. This still has us $17 million over the cap. We can not save any money by cutting expensive vets pre-June 1st due to their dead money outweighing their current cap hit if cut. In order to become compliant then, we must restructure a few other contracts. In this example, I choose what I believe to be younger building blocks that we can expect to retain for a couple years to restructure. We could also restructure other guys liked Moreau, Werner, or Shaheed for lesser cap savings, or even choose a still productive vet like Demario to restructure.

In this model, we have around $6 million in cap space before June 1st. This will likely provide enough money to resign Adebo and maybe even MVS, which I believe to be the only talent departing that we couldn't replace with UDFAs. Guys like JJ or Willie Gay Jr. will leave unless we choose to restructure more players.

(This is not shown, but in this model I have already cut Jamaal Williams and Cedrick Wilson Jr. as these are expected to occur either way and provides around 3 million in cap savings. This will be the case for every model I present.)

Post-June 1st Cap Space:


After we are cap compliant, we can then designate post-June 1st cuts to create cap space to sign draft picks and free agents. In this model, I choose Cam Jordan and Taysom Hill as our post-June 1st cuts as they save the most amount of cap space and are the least likely to be productive in the 2025 season out of all the vets. This scenario will leave us with around 50 million in cap space in 2026. This is a fairly comfortable number compared to what we've dealt with in the past, but it's important to note that this is before we resign or sign new players, meaning it will most likely be significantly lower. While not in crazy cap debt, we will mostly likely be squeezed by the $70 million cap hit Carr will have in 2026. By 2027, with Carr's cap number returning to a much lower number, we will probably be out of the cap situation we've been in for the past decade.

Possibility 2: Saints Cut Derek Carr

Pre-June 1st Cap Compliance:




In this scenario, we do not restructure Carr's deal in favor of across the board restructures, including vets. I restructured every player I believe to be a young building block that isn't on a rookie deal, and the old, high cap hit vets, putting us just over cap compliance. If this is indeed the exact scenario the Saints choose, we would not be able to sign or resign anyone until after the post-June 1st cuts, likely when most free agents have already signed. However, additional restructures and/or extensions can be made to resign Adebo, MVS, etc. I choose not to put any extensions as I don't know what that would look like.

Post-June 1st Cap Space:


With the Saints reaching cap compliance, we can then designate Derek Carr as a post-June 1st cut. We have a comparable cap space as Scenario 1, with $30 million to sign draft picks and free agents. However, the main advantage of this scenario is the $100 million of cap space available in 2026. Even with resigning and future draft picks, we would still have a comfortable amount of cap space in 2026, and could begin operating as a traditional team.

My Opinion:
While Scenario 1 is reasonable, especially if you believe the Saints main issues were due to injury and coaching rather than the present roster, I definitely thinking Scenario 2 is the best option for the Saints moving forward. Even if we remove the cap from consideration, I would much rather see what we could get from Rattler or perhaps a reclamation vet (ala 2023 Bucs Baker vs. Kyle Trask) than try and compete with Carr. To Carr's credit, I do think he's underrated, and I do see his stats (10th in EPA, 5-5 when starting). Yet, he would at best go 10-7 and first round exit the playoffs, and at worst repeat the previous seasons due to his increasing fragility as an older player. Carr is 34, is a known commodity, and is only with us for at best 2 more years. This is not even to mention this locker room/cultural issues he may bring to the organization as a remnant of Dennis Allen. When presented with this, I'd much rather see what we have with Rattler. As a sicko who kept watching the Saints even during their horrible end of season, it's pretty clear to me that Rattler has something that I think can be brought out of him. I have much more confidence that our current staff with 3 former QBs could bring this out of him compared to Dennis Allen.

And then once we get to the cap, it becomes very obvious to me. While it's pretty clear to me guys like Cam and Taysom are done, spreading out there hits over a couple of years to get ride of Carr's future $80 million will make it infinitely easier for Kellen Moore to bring in the guys he wants to bring it and is the obvious decision to me. The mass amount of restructures to cut Carr is less like kicking the can down the road, and more kicking the can so much that it pulverizes into bits and pieces and then being on your way. Restructuring Carr would just be picking up an entirely new can to kick.

Notes:
1. I did not touch the Ramczyk contract as I'm not entirely sure how OverTheCap is interacting with it. I don't fully understand how medical retirement interacts with the cap, or how that would interact with post-June 1st cuts. Depending on how this is, it could alter the numbers to some degree. However, the general point I'm trying to illustrate still stands by not touching the Ramczyk contract. If you have a better understanding of this, please let me know so that I can get a more accurate picture of our real situation.
2. Carr currently has a no-trade clause. However, there's been talk of a contact renegotiation to make this possible, as it seems that both Carr and the Saints are souring on each other. The exact details on how this would work would depend on the exact nature of the renegotiation and trade, so we can't really speak too much on it right now.

Thank you for reading!

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