Not only are we sure that it will make those things more expensive, it will also make substitutes that aren't tariffed more expensive . . . that pesky thing called supply and demand.
and once you enter that cycle, you quickly learn its self-feeding.
Until you reach a breaking point where tariffs are removed and lower pricing from imports start to settle, or demand simply halts. The latter, putting additional pressure on the economy thru lower demand, job loss ( at those mfgs ) etc etc.