I see this debated often so I decided to do a bit of research.
In the last 10 Super Bowls out of a possible 20 starting QBs 11 were top 10 draft picks. Mahomes 5 times, stafford, burrow, Goff, Ryan, newton, and manning at 1 each. 9 were drafted outside of the top 10, in fact they weren’t drafted in the first round at all. Hurts twice, Brady 4 times, Purdy, Foles, and Garoppolo 1 each.
Last 10 QBs to win MVP.
5 drafted top 10 and 5 drafted outside top 10.
Newton, Ryan, Allen 1 each and Mahomes twice.
Brady once. Lamar and Rodger’s twice each.
Super Bowl appearances and mvps it’s basically 50/50.
Then I looked at every QB drafted top 10 the past 10 years.
2024: Williams, Daniels, Maye, penix, and McCarthy
2023: Stroud, young, Richardson
2022: none.
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert
2019: Murray, Jones
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes
2016: Goff, Wentz
2015: Winston, Mariota
26 total QBs drafted in the top 10. Two of them have made the Super Bowl. In the same time span 2 QBs drafted outside the top 10 have also made the SuperBowl.
It doesn’t appear that drafting inside the top 10 provides a better chance of hitting on QB that will take us to the SuperBowl. Admittedly the QBs drafted top 10 this past year could move the data in that direction in the coming years but at this point it hasn’t been proven yet.