So, IF Arch plays like everyone thinks he will, and he does decide to come out, we would need to be 0 and 17 to guarantee that #1 slot. And with a new coach, I don't see it. Unless next year you make Ricky Williams type trade to move up to get him. And who is to say they wouldn't pull a Eli and not go to a place he's drafted. Too hard to say you will get a certain player.