Exploring How the Saints Could Trade Up for Cam Ward

SystemShock said

You could do some research yourself... first search hit I got was an ESPN article from 2021, listing them all to that point in time (according to them).

Between 2000 and 2021, 1st round, top 1-10 picks:

Josh Rosen 10th overall - bust
Mitchell Trubisky 2nd overall - bust
Robert Griffin III 2nd overall (who wasn't a bust really, he got hurt, but still...)
Sam Darnold 3rd overall - bust for the Jets/Panthers/9ers (we'll see with the Seahawks)
Jared Goff 1st overall - Rams/Lions teams so good, they won a lot of games even with him at QB
Trey Lance 3rd overall - bust for the 9ers, on his 3rd team.
Carson Wentz 2nd overall - bust
Blaine Gabbert 10th overall - bust
Mark Sanchez 5th overall - el busto supremo
Michael Vick 1st overall - was doing well, until...

1st round:

Tim Tebow
Kyle Boller
DeShaun Watson
Paxton Lynch
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Paxton Lynch
Josh Freeman
Brady Quinn
Jay Cutler
Jason Campbell
J.P. Lossman

Before 2000, not pretty either... you got Ryan Leaf, Jeff George, Steve Fuller... Steve Bartkowski...

The only 4 successful QBs that have been part of a draft day trade for a pick in the draft are Josh Allen ( 7th overall, no SB yet), Jordan Love (26th overall, 1 season, got to see more), Lamar Jackson ( 32nd overall, regular season MVP, irrelevant in the playoffs), and Mahomes.

Click to expand...

this site lists the 1st rounders over the past 15 years: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...years-from-justin-fields-to-mark-sanchez/amp/

There have been 46 1st rounders. Of that group 15% were “home runs”, 6% were “solid”, with the rest being anywhere from “mixed results” to “busts”. So that is less than a 25% chance of one truly panning out. So your data on trade ups isn’t surprising considering the overall numbers. When looking at the “home run” and “solid” groups, here are the number per draft position:

#1- lllll
#5- l
#6- l
#7- l
#12- l
#32- l

So, eight of the eleven were top 10 picks. Five of the eleven were #1 overall. The probability of a “home run” and “solid” QB from a #1 overall pick is 5 out of 10 (50%). And the lists of disappointments included Bradford who wasn’t bad but career was derailed by injury, Winston who has managed to stay in the league a long time, Darnold who is a starting QB, Mayfield who is a starting QB, and Goff who is a starting QB. Certainly better odds than a random 1st rounder. And when you are looking beyond the 1st round, you might as well be playing lotto.

So, I think you’re looking at it wrong. Look at the players selected #1, which is where Ward is likely to be selected. You’ll see that it’s definitely the highest likelihood of returns. You have to play to win. Right now, Carr/Rattler is a losing hand. I’m not sure that Ward is a winning hand, but certainly the odds are better than Carr/Rattler, and better than anything we would have at #9.