Exploring How the Saints Could Trade Up for Cam Ward

sammymvpknight said

Or it’s the sample size and the relatively low hit rate for ANY prospect. I see what you’re saying but I think that you’re painting with way too broad of a brush. I personally think it’ll be a moot point because the Titans are drafting Ward

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Everyone paints with a broad brush anytime they talk about draft success probability based on historical data. All of that data is just correlation, none of it actually points to causation which is a more important factor in determining probability of outcome.

I think the most important factor to drafting a good QB is being good at drafting and coaching. I don't think were a QB is picked is nearly as important as those two factors. I'm talking about drafting QB's early 2nd round or before. I'm not talking about late 2nd or after.

Rarely is the top rated QB so much better than the rest of the 1st round graded QB's that there's a net value gain in trading multiple picks to get the #1 versus getting one of the other 1st round graded QB's. Occassinally one QB is that much better than the others. Only time will tell if Ward will turn out to have been that QB in this draft.