The Cost to Move Up in the Draft This Year vs Next Year

In his exact scenario sure, but there are far too many variables to predict if that scenario, or anything close to it will happen. Beyond that, the cost being a bit higher is more or less irrelevant if you hit on the right QB and you can't guarantee that the team you need to deal with will want to deal in any one year even if the cost would be lower. I just don't think you can ever make a definitive statement that it is better, or even that it will cost less, to move up for a QB in a future year.

In the end, it comes down to how much the team likes Ward and if the price the Titans demand isn't crazy. Whether it might cost less to move up in future years shouldn't really factor into the decision because you can't know that there will be a QB you like as much or better the next year, much less that a team will make that deal or that it will cost significantly less.
I still have to disagree (amiably of course) since the OP describes a specific scenario and how it computationally could be perceived as better value.

I think you are talking far more generally, which doesn't really relate to, and therefore does not debunk, the OP point. I do agree that a narrowly defined eventuality isn't necessarily that valuable in terms of wider strategy and decisions, however.

But it's not that big a deal.