‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached (1 Viewer)

DavidM

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Allan Lichtman's prediction of a Trump win (good call) is rooted in some analysis, so the guess at impeachment is a different animal, but it's an interesting bit of speculation. Trump has positioned himself as the outsider and the backlash he has received from members of his own party has been on display throughout the election.


‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached

By Peter W. Stevenson November 11 at 11:29 AM

[...]

At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call: That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.

“I'm going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system, it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...r-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/?tid=sm_fb
 
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DavidM

DavidM

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I just hope we can make it through the next four years without Trump doing something really stupid that seriously hurts this country.
Certainly.

Probability of this happening aside, Trump does assume the office under pretty unusual circumstances, having received a lot of public criticism from his own party. Politics is very much about the friends and enemies you make.

CajunSaint, no doubt. I'd find no comfort in Pence assuming the office. To be clear, though, the theory being floated isn't about liberals pushing for impeachment, but members of his own party, in an effort to have a president that falls in line.
 

SuperMatt

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Allan Lichtman's prediction of a Trump win (good call) is rooted in some analysis, so the guess at impeachment is a different animal, but it's an interesting bit of speculation. Trump has positioned himself as the outsider and the backlash he has received from members of his own party has been on display throughout the election.
Was he also in charge of most polls? We know how that ended!!!
 
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DavidM

DavidM

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Was he also in charge of most polls? We know how that ended!!!
You could take a couple of minutes and read the article. (He addresses polling.)
 

not2rich

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Democrats and Liberals better be careful pushing for impeachment. The grass may not be greener when Mike Pence is in charge.
That reminds me, wasn't Trump wanting the VP to be in charge of domestic and foreign policy? So Trump could focus on Making America Great Again?
 

FatCitySaint

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Was he also in charge of most polls? We know how that ended!!!
From the article....

It's worth noting that Lichtman's predictions use very different methods than pollsters and data-based prognosticators. Some statisticians take issue with the structure of his system, a set of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary nature of his keys leads to what's called “overfitting,” which is basically creating a system that fits the data but has little statistical significance. But Lichtman counters by saying that the system has correctly predicted every election since 1984 (specifically, his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based predictions.

“Polls are not predictors,” he said Friday in an email. “They are snapshots that simulate an election. They are abused and misused as predictors. Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 percent to 99 percent certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls.”
 

not2rich

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Certainly.

Probability of this happening aside, Trump does assume the office under pretty unusual circumstances, having received a lot of public criticism from his own party. Politics is very much about the friends and enemies you make.

CajunSaint, no doubt. I'd find no comfort in Pence assuming the office. To be clear, though, the theory being floated isn't about liberals pushing for impeachment, but members of his own party, in an effort to have a president that falls in line.
If that happens, it could only be because Trump actually tried to fulfill his promise to "fight the establishment" and "drain the swamp." Or whatever the slogan was for ending corruption and reforming D.C.

Maybe Trump will prove me wrong, but I fully expect him to sell out to the Republican establishment and D.C. lobbyists, who oddly enough are quite optimistic about great things to come for their industry.

Here's a Politico article saying that the majority of GOP insiders want Trump to leave policy to Ryan so that Trump can be the TV figurehead, which conveniently enough is the one part of the job he actually has the experience for.

GOP insiders to Trump: Leave the policy to Paul Ryan - POLITICO

Someone's getting sold out. If it's not the GOP establishment, Trump voters are going to realize they basically elected Paul Ryan.
 
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DavidM

DavidM

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I think it's an interesting consideration in pondering the dynamics of a Trump White House working with Congress, and especially Paul Ryan. Whether or not we support Trump, I think a lot of us have envisioned an outsider going to DC and challenging the status quo. Lichtman is the wet blanket, reminding us that politics is absolutely cutthroat and about self-promotion and preservation.
 
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DavidM

DavidM

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Maybe Trump will prove me wrong, but I fully expect him to sell out to the Republican establishment and D.C. lobbyists, who oddly enough are quite optimistic about great things to come for their industry.

Here's a Politico article saying that the majority of GOP insiders want Trump to leave policy to Ryan so that Trump can be the TV figurehead, which conveniently enough is the one part of the job he actually has the experience for.

GOP insiders to Trump: Leave the policy to Paul Ryan - POLITICO

Someone's getting sold out. If it's not the GOP establishment, Trump voters are going to realize they basically elected Paul Ryan.

This is my expectation, as well. For all the bluster, I think Trump ends up mostly falling in line with his party. What leverage does he really have against them? But I also don't think Trump is an 'outsider' in any genuine sense.
 
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DavidM

DavidM

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This speaks to one of the reservations I had about Sanders. It takes a coalition to get anything done in Washington.

If Trump doesn't agree to toe the party line, then it's more likely that the things that get pushed through are just the policy points where his agenda and the congressional agenda overlap already. Effectively, the result becomes the same, there is no revolution against the status quo, and we coast to the midterms.
 

SuperMatt

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You could take a couple of minutes and read the article. (He addresses polling.)


I stand corrected, guilty for not reading. Just commenting on predictions, no one knows the future. I'd sure take the powerball numbers if they can be predicted.
 

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