2008 NFL Draft Preview (Running Backs) (1 Viewer)

[LSSpam]

Running Backs

Darren McFadden - Top Ten
The next . . . Darren McFadden.
Teams who should be interested - Miami, Oakland, NY Jets, New England
* North/South homerun threat like Peterson was. That said, he's not the "next Adrian Peterson". He's smaller, doesn't have the injury concerns, but has character issues. I also doubt he has Peterson's drive (who does?). But effective North/South runners who are also homerun threats are rare and prized.

Rashard Mendenhall - Top Ten
The next . . . Joseph Addai +10 lbs
Teams who should be interested - Cincinnati, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit
* In my opinion, the most complete Running Back in the draft. I really, really like Mendenhall. He can catch the ball, run inside, run outside. His size/speed ratio is outstanding. He's going to be a super-productive NFL player, and even if his ceiling isn't as high as McFadden's I think the "risk" involved in him is significantly less. I would seriously consider Mendenhall over McFadden depending on my situation.

Jonathon Stewart - Late First
The next . . . T.J. Duckett
Teams who should be interested - Green Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh
* Not anywhere near as big a fan as everyone else seems to be. I don't think he's that fast on the football field. I don't see quick feet. I don't think he hits the hole as fast as you'd like a North-South runner. He's got a lot of power and puts a lot of weight behind his runs, so he's going to be effective, but not an elite RB in my opinion. He benefited, I think, from the spread which opened up holes and matched him up with defensive backs a lot of the time.

Matt Forte - Second round
The next . . . Steven Jackson
Teams who should be interested - New Orleans?, Miami, Carolina, Arizona
* "Steven Jackson" maybe a reach but I think he's potentially that good. He's both big and tall, runs tough, and appeared to have pretty good hands.

Jamaal Charles - Second round
The next . . . Clinton Portis (out of college, before he got beefy)
Teams who should be interested - Any zone-heavy team. Denver, Houston, etc
* If he has the discipline to stick with it, he could do extremely well in a place like Houston or Denver. Killer speed and good cutback ability, he doesn't run through contact and doesn't need to be in a North/South style run game (like Baltimore). I wouldn't take him above the 2nd round but he's big-time and could easily be the 3rd or even 2nd best back in this draft.

Felix Jones - Third round
The next . . . - Tiki Barber (before he got really good)
Teams who should be interested - Any team looking for a multi-dimensional backup. San Diego comes to mind.
* Lot of similarities in my mind to "young Tiki". You draft him with the hope that he becomes "franchise back Tiki" (minus the mouth) but you're ok with him as just a utility player. The big problem I have with Jones is that he wasn't leaned on to do any real "NFL" runs in Arkansas. He got to do a lot of pitches, stretches, etc which won't make up the bulk of any NFL running game. So there's a learning curve there and some projection involved (similiar to what Reggie's gone through). So "poor man's Bush" might be another way to phrase this.

Ray Rice - Third round
The next . . . Poor man's Maurice Jones-Drew
Teams who should be interested - Any team who needs a backup for a franchise back (San Francisco, Kansas City, etc)
* First, let's get this straight, he's not as good as MJD. I was struggling to think of any other short RBs that fit that profile. He's a north/south inside runner who is bigger then his weight suggests because of his low center of gravity (similar to MJD). But he's not as big as MJD and not as quick or explosive as MJD either.

Chris Johnson - Third/Fourth round
The next . . . Anywhere from Brian Calhoun to Justin Fargas
Teams who should be interested - Anyone obsessed with speed
* Honestly i've seen this guy play one football game, vs Boise St in the Hawaii bowl. That said, the only thing that even has this guy on anyones radar screen was the crazy speed he had at the combine, so I feel mildly justified in writing about him. He's not the first "too small to be a RB but has insane speed" guy to enter the draft. They all go in the 3rd or 4th rounds (Calhoun, Sproles, Fargas, etc) but there have been really mixed results. Sproles is a pretty good special teams player, Calhoun had a missing person report filed for him, and Fargas put on weight and turned out to be a solid RB for the Raiders. So go figure.

 

[Dre]

Thanks for taking the time to write that up....you just couldn't start us with DB, DT, or LB, could you, though?

 

[zorro37]

There really is a lot of RBs out there, you listed them all down to the 4th, but IMO all could easily go by the end of the second, Rice and Charles the doubts

 

[Scott B]

Spam, great breakdown. I would just like to add something about Forte. I've watched this kid play many games at Tulane, and while your comparison to Steven Jackson is fair, he has always reminded me of one Deuce McAllister. They are comparable in size, speed, and running style. Not saying Jackson is a wrong comparison, just my observation.

 

[papz]

Prior to the Julius Jones signing, I had Forte sneaking into the first round to the Seahawks. I think he's going to be a really good back in this league... good combo of power and speed. I think he'd be a great fit in Pittsburgh.

 

[LSSpam]

Spam, great breakdown. I would just like to add something about Forte. I've watched this kid play many games at Tulane, and while your comparison to Steven Jackson is fair, he has always reminded me of one Deuce McAllister. They are comparable in size, speed, and running style. Not saying Jackson is a wrong comparison, just my observation.

I thought about Deuce as well, though it'd be "later Deuce" and not "Deuce out of college". Out of college Deuce was more thin, more of a reciever/returner as well as running back.

But I agree, Deuce is another upright, tall, physical runner (or, at least, he became one).

Can you give me any insight into how good of a cutback runner he is?

 

[LSSpam]

Prior to the Julius Jones signing, I had Forte sneaking into the first round to the Seahawks. I think he's going to be a really good back in this league... good combo of power and speed. I think he'd be a great fit in Pittsburgh.

I don't think Julius Jones will affect someone like Forte. It would be Duckett that Forte would more or less match up against.

That said, I doubt Seattle goes RB in the first round unless someone like Stewart "falls" to them. I like Forte in Pittsburgh though, yeah. Good fit alongside Willie Parker and as a replacement for Najeh Davenport (who, if McAllister or Jackson is Forte's "ceiling", then Davenport would probably be his "floor").

 

[Nonreg]

I think the Matt Forte comparsion of Steven Jackson is a bit high. when jackson is healthly, hes right up there in the top 3 RB's.

I also believe Ray Rice should be held a bit higher, he was so consistent in college, I think if he ends up with a good offensive line he could be a all-pro RB.

Jonathan Stewart/TJ compasion dead on though, nice call.

 

[Scott B]

I thought about Deuce as well, though it'd be "later Deuce" and not "Deuce out of college". Out of college Deuce was more thin, more of a reciever/returner as well as running back.

But I agree, Deuce is another upright, tall, physical runner (or, at least, he became one).

Can you give me any insight into how good of a cutback runner he is?

I would agree with you that it is more of a "later" Deuce, but not any later than 2003. Cutback-wise, I'd say he's decent. I'd say he's more of a make-one-cut-and-go kind of back. He was able to get to the corner a few times, but for obvious reasons, the speed of Army's defense can't compare to the worst in the NFL

 

[DownWithDisease]

Good write-up Spam I always enjoy these.

I wish you had included Jacob Hester and Mike Hart in the piece though... I'll take the liberty to add my thoughts on them within the framework you presented.

Jacob Hester - 2nd Day pick
The next...John Riggins
Teams who should be interested - Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Chicago, Arizona
*Versatile, hard-nosed player that can play both RB positions. Very goods hands. Doesn't do anything great, but does everything good. Tough between the tackles runner, who is known for taking care of the ball and getting the tough yards. Some lucky team will get a steal in Hester.

Mike Hart - 2nd Day pick
The next...a poor man's Maurice Jones-Drew
Teams who should be interested - Any team in need of solid RB depth
*Hart is Michigan's All-Time rushing leader, and even though he is short, he is not small. He is a tough inside runner that does not shy away from contact. He does not possess homerun type speed and quickness, but he finds a way to gain yards. Has battled minor injuries. Poor combine hurt his draft stock.

 

[bobad]

I would take Mendenhall ahead of McFadden, if only by a skosh.

I think Rice is a sleeper, and someone will get great value in late 2nd or 3rd.

 

[JOElittleBIGhorn]

Spam, great breakdown. I would just like to add something about Forte. I've watched this kid play many games at Tulane, and while your comparison to Steven Jackson is fair, he has always reminded me of one Deuce McAllister. They are comparable in size, speed, and running style. Not saying Jackson is a wrong comparison, just my observation.

I thought about Deuce as well, though it'd be "later Deuce" and not "Deuce out of college". Out of college Deuce was more thin, more of a reciever/returner as well as running back.

But I agree, Deuce is another upright, tall, physical runner (or, at least, he became one).

Can you give me any insight into how good of a cutback runner he is?

I was going to say the same thing. From all the games I've watched him play, about two years worth of mostly home games, I'd peg Forte as the Deuce McAllister circa 2003-2004. He can slip a guy or two if needed with the same shoulder fake Deuce likes to use when he gets in open ground. He's like the '04ish, pre-injury Deuce in that he's still got enough speed and a little bit of burst, not elite burst by any means but enough that he can separate himself from defenders and get downfield. A lot of his big runs came from getting to the outside and running through arm tackles. I can tell you first hand that he's a pretty good cutback runner. If you watch his film and clips you can tell he's got the vision to cut it back and the speed and the strength to break through weak tackles to get to the next level. You could go as far as say that cutting back was his "Forte"(terrible joke, I know). He's also got the ability to make things happen after catching the ball. He routinely turned screens into big gains. The Deuce parallels are almost eerie. The only thing I would say is that Forte is slightly shiftier as a back compared to '04 Deuce. I've seen a Jamal Lewis comp, which doesn't seem too far offbase to me either, as far as his inside running goes at least. I think he's far and away the best running back prospect Tulane has put out, above Mewelde Moore. It would be a waste of talent to move him to fullback in my opinion with some of the talk I've heard.

 

[Scott B]

I was going to say the same thing. From all the games I've watched him play, about two years worth of mostly home games, I'd peg Forte as the Deuce McAllister circa 2003-2004. He can slip a guy or two if needed with the same shoulder fake Deuce likes to use when he gets in open ground. He's like the '04ish, pre-injury Deuce in that he's still got enough speed and a little bit of burst, not elite burst by any means but enough that he can separate himself from defenders and get downfield. A lot of his big runs came from getting to the outside and running through arm tackles. I can tell you first hand that he's a pretty good cutback runner. If you watch his film and clips you can tell he's got the vision to cut it back and the speed and the strength to break through weak tackles to get to the next level. You could go as far as say that cutting back was his "Forte"(terrible joke, I know). He's also got the ability to make things happen after catching the ball. He routinely turned screens into big gains. The Deuce parallels are almost eerie. The only thing I would say is that Forte is slightly shiftier as a back compared to '04 Deuce. I've seen a Jamal Lewis comp, which doesn't seem too far offbase to me either, as far as his inside running goes at least. I think he's far and away the best running back prospect Tulane has put out, above Mewelde Moore. It would be a waste of talent to move him to fullback in my opinion with some of the talk I've heard.

just to add something to your excellent post. In regards to comparing Forte to another great back from Tulane, Mewelde Moore, I will say that while I'm a bit disapointed Moore hasn't done bigger things so far in the NFL, you could kind of see him being more of a Kevin Faulk-type back opposed to Forte, who I think can definitely be the bell cow of an NFL offense. Both were head and shoulders above most of the talent they played with and against, but if things fall the way they played in college, Forte should have a better overall start barring injury, of course.

 

[JOElittleBIGhorn]

just to add something to your excellent post. In regards to comparing Forte to another great back from Tulane, Mewelde Moore, I will say that while I'm a bit disapointed Moore hasn't done bigger things so far in the NFL, you could kind of see him being more of a Kevin Faulk-type back opposed to Forte, who I think can definitely be the bell cow of an NFL offense. Both were head and shoulders above most of the talent they played with and against, but if things fall the way they played in college, Forte should have a better overall start barring injury, of course.

I agree. I think Mewelde could actually have a nice break out year this season with the Steelers. I think he'll have a much bigger role in the Steelers offense than he did with the Vikings. He should serve as a decent foil to Willie Parker instead of sitting behind the two-headed monster of Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson.

 

[DSchexnaydre]

Good preview...I'm really high on Mendenhall as well. Somebody is going to get a steal midway through the draft with him...