2020 Hurricane Season is upon us (1 Viewer)

superchuck500

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It's still May, so technically the 2020 hurricane season hasn't begun yet. But Tropical Storm Bertha has formed off the South Carolina coast, one week after Tropical Storm Arthur passed just off of Cape Hatteras.

NOAA has predicted higher than usual storm activity in 2020:

The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995.

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bclemms

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GFS and Canadian models have a storm in the gulf next week. Euro doesn't have it yet and it is coming from an area that tends to produce a lot of false storms on the models in the past. If it does happen looks to be a huge, slow moving but relatively weak storm that will drop a lot of rain. Something to watch.
 

efil4stnias

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GFS and Canadian models have a storm in the gulf next week. Euro doesn't have it yet and it is coming from an area that tends to produce a lot of false storms on the models in the past. If it does happen looks to be a huge, slow moving but relatively weak storm that will drop a lot of rain. Something to watch.
After May 14, i dont need any more rain for some time.
 

efil4stnias

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For now it's showing the rain over Florida but odds of those models being right this far out are quite slim.
ill go with your former prediction that the models tend to get false storms from this area this time of year. lolol
 

bclemms

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ill go with your former prediction that the models tend to get false storms from this area this time of year. lolol
Then don't look at how it's trending. GFS and Canadian now are printing a major hurricane in the gulf and the Euro is now showing a weak storm. Globals showing consensus of a storm in the Gulf is usually not good. Thankfully it's still a long ways out.
 

efil4stnias

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Then don't look at how it's trending. GFS and Canadian now are printing a major hurricane in the gulf and the Euro is now showing a weak storm. Globals showing consensus of a storm in the Gulf is usually not good. Thankfully it's still a long ways out.
Well, 2020 is not good soooo.....lol

meh it b what it b.
 

bclemms

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don't they always predict an above average hurricane season?
No. They've actually gotten quite accurate over the last decade with hurricane predictions.

There are certain things that they look at when doing the forecast. The SST's of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. The ENSO pattern, whether it is El Nino, La Nina or Neutral. The worst hurricane seasons tend to be when we transition from El Nino to a weak La Nina or neutral conditions. El Nino increases water temps over the Caribbean but it also signfiicantly increases shear making it less likely for hurricanes to develop. La Nina produces very low shear environment over the Caribbean. Then you have the amount of rainfall over Africa in the winter, the more rainfall, the less dust is created during cane season. Dust is bad for canes because when it blows off the coast then makes cyclone formation quite difficult.

Can they be wrong? Sure. Could they be predict a very active hurricane season but not get any storms that make landfall? Sure. For the most part though, the seasonal forecast has become really quite accurate.
 
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gboudx

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The ENSO pattern, whether it is El Nino, La Nina or Neutral. The worst hurricane seasons tend to be when we transition from El Nino to a weak La Nina or neutral conditions.
For those wondering about ENSO, the latest update(May 14th) from the CPC(Climate Prediction Center) is:
ENSO-neutral is most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with increasing chances of La Niña through the rest of the year.
Sounds like ripe Atlantic Basin conditions.
 

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