2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (1 Viewer)

[bclemms]

Globals are going all in on the next wave behind Fione. For that reason I am skipping Bermuda.

 

[efil4stnias]

Globals are going all in on the next wave behind Fione. For that reason I am skipping Bermuda.

All in as in cat 5 fish storm ?

 

[bclemms]

All in as in cat 5 fish storm ?

Euro is showing a cat 4-5 in the gulf but its stupid far out and unlikely to materialize that way.

Fiona doest impact Bermuda until Friday so it would be Sunday/Monday before I could fly back and if I had to flip straight to a major US hurricane it would be brutal. Need a break becaus I was on West Coast dealing with flooding and wildfires last week. So even if unlikely I have to be ready.

 

[efil4stnias]

Euro is showing a cat 4-5 in the gulf but its stupid far out and unlikely to materialize that way.

Fiona doest impact Bermuda until Friday so it would be Sunday/Monday before I could fly back and if I had to flip straight to a major US hurricane it would be brutal. Need a break becaus I was on West Coast dealing with flooding and wildfires last week. So even if unlikely I have to be ready.

I only liked for last part.

That first sentence is bleh. Lol.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I'm trying to remeber previous forecasts, but I don't remember them predicting Fiona would get this strong. What happened

 

[brandon8283]

Euro is showing a cat 4-5 in the gulf but its stupid far out and unlikely to materialize that way.

GFS agrees.

 

[ChrisinNOLA]

GFS agrees.

Long range computer models are inaccurate. We have already seen this this year.

 

[bclemms]

Long range computer models are inaccurate. We have already seen this this year.

Yeah, I put no faith in that solution verifying. If it does, broken clock.

What is high confidence is that a wave will be moving into a favorable environment to intensify during peak hurricane season in an area of the carribean that tends to result in a lot of gulf tracks.

Worry about it next week.

 

[faceman]

Long range computer models are inaccurate. We have already seen this this year.

True, but that said we are about to nail a 5 day track.

The most reliable hurricane models, based on their 2021 performance » Yale Climate Connections

And why you should ignore them all in favor of the National Hurricane Center forecast.

yaleclimateconnections.org

 

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner:

Significant hurricane possible in the western Caribbean Sea in 7 days.

A tropical wave currently several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands is becoming better organized this morning. Convection has increased over the last 24 hours throughout the wave axis as it moves westward at 10-15mph. Development chances in the near term (next few days) are on the low side as the wave axis attempts to organize surface low pressure. NHC has increased the potential for development to 40% over the next 5 days.

Global model guidance is extremely bullish on this wave and nearly all models show development in the central and western Caribbean Sea along with several of the ensemble members, which is one of the first times this year there has been such model agreement. Given the strong model signal, it is likely that this tropical wave will develop into a tropical cyclone over the central or western Caribbean Sea this weekend into early next week. Conditions in the western Caribbean Sea appear extremely favorable for intensification as the tropical cyclone moves into that region with a building 200mb anti-cyclone aloft behind the departing hurricane Fiona over top of extreme oceanic heat content waters.

While there is no low level center yet, the high agreement in model guidance track into the western Caribbean Sea yields decent confidence at such a long range that a potentially significant hurricane will be located in the western Caribbean by early next week.

Long term track solutions begin to diverge and much of what happens post western Caribbean Sea will be controlled by a trough of low pressure over the NE US and ridge building westward behind the departing Fiona this weekend. I must say…that even at days 7-9 the GFS and ECWMF are in remarkable agreement with a significant hurricane into the southeast Gulf of Mexico turning NW and N. Ensemble spread becomes increasingly wide in the latter periods controlled by the intensity of the system and depth of the NE US trough dictating how sharp any turn over the Gulf of Mexico will be.

 

[faceman]

From Jeff Lindner:

Not the news I wanted to wake up too. If the GFS and Euro keep the current path,the northern gulf needs to pay
very close attention.

 

[efil4stnias]

Welp i guess ill just self-impose a hiatus on this thread until latter part of next week since i cannot begin to think of ramifications ( in my line of work )

im going to SSF to argue some more about Winston.

 

[perret318]

Why do I look at tropical stuff right when I wake up in the morning? Ugh.

Yeah, I'm not liking this thing at all.

 

[ChrisinNOLA]

If it even develops. The one that was supposed to hit us during Labor Day never developed. I know wishful thinking.

Again it’s a long term model. Often not reliable.

 

[faceman]

If it even develops. The one that was supposed to hit us during Labor Day never developed. I know wishful thinking.

I just hope my weather app is correct. It's showing a cold front coming in Monday night with a low of 60. If
that happens the cane won't run into that.