2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (6 Viewers)

superchuck500

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Is there a rough timeline? Say for entering gulf and hitting the coast (if it goes that way)

The screenshot of the model run that Faceman posted showed 18z hours, Monday Oct. 3, sitting just off the FL panhandle.

But there’s so much variable between now and then.

Dr. Cowan reminding us to keep it simple.

 

faceman

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The screenshot of the model run that Faceman posted showed 18z hours, Monday Oct. 3, sitting just off the FL panhandle.

But there’s so much variable between now and then.

Dr. Cowan reminding us to keep it simple.


The shear is coming from outflow from Fiona. When it's out of the way we will know a lot more. Don't panic, but keep
an eye out is the best advice right now
 

L7465SSS

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I think I said a lot earlier in this thread I was glad it was so short at that time of the year. Not making me happy. By a long shot! But do appreciate y'all professionals keeping us in the loop. Just bring some good news for pete's sake. :( Y'all guys really know your stuff and help us out. Please keep it up. Really appreciate it. The local weather kinda lacks.
 

faceman

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Waxman 57 is a well respected meteorologist on storm 2k. He's expecting a central to south Florida hit. We'll know
soon
 

Saint_Ward

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The screenshot of the model run that Faceman posted showed 18z hours, Monday Oct. 3, sitting just off the FL panhandle.

But there’s so much variable between now and then.

Dr. Cowan reminding us to keep it simple.


I was just going to post this and his other tweet. Dont' listen to fake Dr. Ward.. listen to the real doctors of Meteorology.

1663730408665.png
 
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I was just going to post this and his other tweet. Dont' listen to fake Dr. Ward.. listen to the real doctors of Meteorology.

1663730408665.png
Yes Levi does a good job with his explanations. Still way to early in the game. I think you do a good job Ward too. You don’t mind I call you Professor?
 
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The screenshot of the model run that Faceman posted showed 18z hours, Monday Oct. 3, sitting just off the FL panhandle.

But there’s so much variable between now and then.

Dr. Cowan reminding us to keep it simple.


Ok. Just missed that one. I know it’s way to early. I’m going to be in the panhandle from the 26th to 30th. Today is our 100% cancellation day for the AB&B. I think we are good.
 

Super44

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No center, no reliable track. Plain and simple FACT! Everything now is conjecture. No respectable met that I follow, is even remotely forecasting a landfall in the US. Some internet mets are providing the long term model data, EURO and GFS graphics, but are NOT themselves making a landfall forecast. They would be considered lunatics. Even at this point without a DEFINED center, an accurate 5 day projected path is with potential great error. However, most reliable mets are confident whatever forms will be taking a track towards the western Caribbean over the next 5 days. It could be southern Caribbean, mid Caribbean or northern Caribbean. That track will have a significant impact on the latter track (beyond 5 days).

As of now, not a lot to be concerned about. Just awareness. One thing is pretty certain. If it should become a major and affect the SE US, it will change the weather pattern to more of a fall pattern for the south.
 
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Super44

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Waxman? He a real person or screen name? I think we need to wait till it forms before judging where it goes.
He is a real pro met., with a professional forecasting business for a ton of clients. Particularly, O&G clients. Once a system really gets kicking, he pulls back from the internet forum, because he gets tied up with his service commitment to his many clients. He is one of the best I have come to know and have followed.
 

faceman

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He is a real pro met., with a professional forecasting business for a ton of clients. Particularly, O&G clients. Once a system really gets kicking, he pulls back from the internet forum, because he gets tied up with his service commitment to his many clients. He is one of the best I have come to know and have followed.
He did make one bad call I remember. He kept saying hurricane Michael would not continue to strengthen as
it approached the shore. The reason he kept giving was it was approaching shallow waters. We all know now it
hit as a cat 5. That said nobody is perfect and I still respect his opinion.
 
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He did make one bad call I remember. He kept saying hurricane Michael would not continue to strengthen as
it approached the shore. The reason he kept giving was it was approaching shallow waters. We all know now it
hit as a cat 5. That said nobody is perfect and I still respect his opinion.
His Vinovich moment

5d14c8a4bedae.image.jpg
 

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