2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (1 Viewer)

[Bill]

The GFS long range has it sitting of the coast of Se. La..

If you mean 'sitting' as in stationary, that would be a very bad scenario.
As with most hurricanes the forward motion (track speed) can make an average storm become very devastating due to flooding.
But if you add favorable conditions for strengthening, then you turn it into a Cat 5 killer.

 

[gboudx]

Lindner

Strong tropical wave continues quickly westward in the extreme southern Caribbean Sea just north of South America.

There has been little change in the organization of 98L overnight with scattered strong convection to the west and east of the wave axis. Strong northeasterly shear from Fiona continues over the system. A USAF flight yesterday evening and passage of the wave axis through the southern Windward Islands did not show any sort of level low circulation, so the feature remains an open wave axis.

Track:
What was seemingly remarkable model consensus earlier this week as gradually decreased into less agreement and now significant model differences have developed. For the next 24-48 hours 98L will continue to track W or WNW…and this may have some impacts on the longer term track. Many of the models show a WNW movement beginning soon, but satellite images suggest the wave is continuing almost due west along the northern coast of South America. By Saturday the wave will be reaching the western Caribbean Sea and this is where now significant model differences begin to evolve tied to the western edge of the steering ridge over the central Atlantic which builds westward behind Fiona and the troughing along the US east coast. The ECWMF shows a stronger trough that pulls 98L northward sooner with a sharper turn out of the NW Caribbean across western Cuba and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS has a weaker and more transient trough that misses 98L and allows the system to move much further west into the west-central Gulf of Mexico before turning much slower northward toward Louisiana. The GFS and ECWMF models are now hundreds of miles apart over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of next week and also have significant timing differences. Much of the future track forecast post the western Caribbean Sea will come down to where the center of 98L eventually forms, how strong it becomes, and how strong and deep the trough on the US east coast is early next week.

The multi-model consensus has actually shifted little over the last 24 hours and continues with a track west of the Cayman Islands and then just west of western Cuba turning north over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The super-ensemble suite shows significant spread of possible solutions from the Bay of Campeche to off the North Carolina coast with the GFS ensemble mean having shifted west and the CMC and ECWMF having shifted east. I still think this will end up being a central and eastern US Gulf coast impact, as a threat to Texas this late in the season would be rare, but not completely impossible.

Intensity:
There will likely be little change in intensity of 98L over the next few days as strong NE wind shear as a result of Fiona’s outflow impacts the system. By later this weekend, 98L will find itself in nearly ideal conditions for intensification in the western Caribbean Sea with upper level outflow expanding in all directions and over deep warm waters. Much of the intensity guidance quickly develops the system from a tropical depression to a hurricane and then major hurricane. It is likely 98L enters the Gulf of Mexico as a quickly developing hurricane and conditions at least in the SE and central Gulf of Mexico continue to support intensification of a tropical system. Models also show a fairly large wind field potentially associated with 98L in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly a function of land interaction in the western Caribbean Sea with the Yucatan.

 

[faceman]

If you mean 'sitting' as in stationary, that would be a very bad scenario.
As with most hurricanes the forward motion (track speed) can make an average storm become very devastating due to flooding.
But if you add favorable conditions for strengthening, then you turn it into a Cat 5 killer.

I could have phrased it better. I should have said located off the coast. The e-mail from Linder to gboudx perfectly
explains the current scenario

 

[superchuck500]

Meanwhile, eastern Canada getting ready to get walloped by Fiona.

 

[ChrisinNOLA]

Keep in mind what Levi said. Until it forms these tracks are guesses. It could go as far west as Nicaragua as far as we know right now. Don’t trust any track right now.

 

[faceman]

Wxman,s latest

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

 

[Bill]

Wxman,s latest

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

Thanks! I’m canceling my hotel reservations as we speak!

 

[buzd]

HUGE UPDATE:

 

[Bill]

HUGE UPDATE:

That’s why they get paid the big bucks.

 

[superchuck500]

Wxman,s latest

Not a lot of time today. Working 6 active storms worldwide, but my focus is 98L. Just do not buy the GFS/ICON solution of moving it right into a WSW-ENE jet over northern Gulf. The center will always follow the convection, and the shear will drive the convection NE toward the FL Peninsula. Landfall next Thursday Florida peninsula is what I have to go with. I have it north of Tampa for now, but could easily go inland just north of Ft. Myers Wednesday night. Peak intensity will likely occur in the NW Caribbean, followed by some weakening in the Gulf due to increased shear. 00Z Euro looks pretty good for a start.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[ChrisinNOLA]

HUGE UPDATE:

That is the best one yet.

 

[ChrisinNOLA]

Maybe it’s just me but GFS tracks starting to slowly align with Euro?

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Saint_Ward]