2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (2 Viewers)

Yeah I think he means it crossing Florida, then getting over the Gulf Stream and increasing.

Right but it would then have to bend back to the west to make a Carolinas landfall or scrape. Not sure how the steering is setting up for that yet.
 
Yeah, the possible track and impact on Carolinas has my interest for sure. Interesting that it could be stronger after Florida - I suppose he’s referring to possible entry into the Atlantic? Strengthening over land is rare, correct?
My guess once it exits Florida it will hit the gulf stream. Those waters can support a tropical system every day of
the year. It's going to depend on upper atmospheric conditions.
 
I can't post the 12z Euro track because the file is too large. It has it hitting Fort Meyers . It then enters the Atlantic
and makes a 2nd landfall on the NC/SC border. This what Wxman57 has been saying since yesterday.
 
Right but it would then have to bend back to the west to make a Carolinas landfall or scrape. Not sure how the steering is setting up for that yet.
It wouldn't need to turn west to threaten the Carolinas. Just moving straight NNE would do it.
FdS68uRaIAAr_Zr.png
 


That's really interesting tonight - the Euro and GFS are quite divergent, largely due to how they treat the trough over the US. GFS with much more western possibilities. Seems way to be early to be confidently calling Ft. Myers.
 

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