2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (3 Viewers)

[Saint_Ward]

Euro has shifted more to the right/south. That path would zip across FL at a NE angle, vs going right up the coast.

 

[Tapxe]

 

[Saint_Ward]

That's kinda funny.

But man, Miami's got a big problem. This one isn't expected to bring much of anything their way either.

 

[superchuck500]

Still quite the spread past 24 hours.

UKMET can fork off

 

[superchuck500]

This is obviously just a visual track of the forecast on the Accuweather app but it’s sort of interesting to see how it moves through the various advisories.

Current:

Just comparing updates on this particular product, the 11 has a slightly greater bend into a landfall just above Tampa.

 

[superchuck500]

11pm, 105mph - very slight move east, especially after landfall (which I am watching for impact to CHS). And slowing at landfall.

 

[Bayouboy]

He's a monster now. Made landfall in Cuba with 125mph winds. Sure hope the projected weakening occurs before a Florida landfall. This is close to worst case for the Tampa area.

Hurricanes fascinate me. They are beautiful, natural monsters.

 

[bonnjer]

I hope @bclemms is doing okay in Cuba and is getting some good footage.

 

[superchuck500]

5am 125 mph, 952 mb.

Track again adjust with more pronounced bend into land near Tampa and more east after landfall. Setting up worse for Tampa with these slight adjustments.

 

[brandon8283]

Predicting 15-20" of rain in Tampa, in addition to the storm surge that's coming in.

This is going to be rough for Tampa.

 

[Bill]

It’ll be interesting to see how the evacuation procedures for the Bucs will affect the preparation for their game this weekend. I suppose it’s possible that they won’t even play the game and give their injured players an extra week to recoup. Saints fans know that these scenarios can disrupt a team for a while since the player’s families & property will also be affected.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[gboudx]

Sobering

A devastating hurricane event heading for the FL west coast

Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion including coastal evacuation.

Discussion:
Ian is now within range of the Key West radar and the storm is moving northward over western Cuba as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 125mph. Prior to landfall over western Cuba a USAF mission recorded peak flight level winds of 101kts and a pressure of 960mb. Ian has made the expected northward turn and this will bring the eye of the hurricane over the SE Gulf waters in the next few hours. NOAA and USAF aircraft will begin near constant missions into Ian once the system clears Cuba this morning up to landfall on the FL W/SW coast. Numerous rainbands are now moving northward and affecting the FL Keys and southern FL and this will continue today while activity spreads northward.

Track:
A dangerous hurricane capable for severe impacts will be approaching the W/SW FL coast tonight into Wednesday. Track guidance continues to converge that Ian will move north for the next 24 hours and then turn NNE as the hurricane begins to feel the trough along the US east coast. How sharp the turn to the right happens continues to cause track differences in the guidance with the ECWMF and UKMET along the eastern edge of the guidance cluster with a landfall south of Tampa and the GFS and hurricane models along the left side with a landfall near or just north of Tampa. The official track has been nudged slightly to the east with a landfall near the southern edge of Tampa Bay around the Sarasota and Bradenton area.

As this point only very small (miles) deviations in the track will have very large impacts on the storm surge impacted areas with areas to the right of the center of landfall experiencing catastrophic storm surge and areas to the north with strong offshore winds a blow out of the water. Sitting right at the edge of the current track is Tampa Bay with 3.5 million residents and an extremely vulnerable area to storm surge. A slight shift in the track only a few miles could bring a devastating surge into Tampa Bay and flood much of the Downtown area or blow the water entirely out of the bay.

Intensity:
Ian is in a favorable environment for intensification and the presentation from the Key West radar this morning shows little disruption of the inner core of the hurricane while crossing Cuba. With favorable upper level outflow and Ian moving toward the warm waters of the SE Gulf, intensification will resume this morning once Ian clears Cuba. It is likely Ian will become a category 4 hurricane later today and peak within the next 36 hours as the hurricane nears the FL coast. Given the adjustments in the track southward, this will help keep Ian out of increasing wind shear from the west a bit longer and allow the hurricane to impact the coast as a major hurricane.

Ian will slow near landfall to around 4-6 mph and impacts along the coast will be long lasting with 24 hours of damaging winds and several tide cycles of storm surge. Catastrophic storm surge is expected to the right of the landfall of the center with extensive damage to coastal infrastructure.

 

[ChrisinNOLA]

Holy Toledo I just stepped outside. It is cool! This front is the real deal. This cane in for fight of its life. Front likely buffers and takes steam out of cane. Im starting to agree it only goes in at a cat 1 or 2.

Its 70 degrees right now in New Orleans area

 

[faceman]

Holy Toledo I just stepped outside. It is cool! This front is the real deal. This cane in for fight of its life. Front likely buffers and takes steam out of cane. Im starting to agree it only goes in at a cat 1 or 2.

Its 70 degrees right now in New Orleans area

63 in Biloxi right now. low of 54 expected Thursday morning