2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (2 Viewers)

[gboudx]

The Bucs evacuated to Tampa (staying close I suppose). The NFL is watching it per Schefter.

With it slowing down at landfall, it's going to be hard for the NFL to wait. It might not be until Saturday before they can assess whether its even possible to have a game - including whether law enforcement and first responders can work the event.

That seems too late. They'll probably move it to Monday?

Last I heard they went to Miami. IMO, there's a serious risk to that game being played in Tampa. Power outages, damage, roads blocked are all likely to happen if the path remains current.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

Last I heard they went to Miami. IMO, there's a serious risk to that game being played in Tampa. Power outages, damage, roads blocked are all likely to happen if the path remains current.

Yeah that was a brain fart. They can't "evacuate" to Tampa.

 

[superchuck500]

11AM 115 mph 963 mb.

The intensity forecast has it peaking at 130mph, which is a better than before. But less deterioration before landfall on this advisory - so it's a mixed bag on intensity.

Track discussion (landfall moved south):

Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.

 

[superchuck500]

The 11AM track has the COC almost reaching the Atlantic on the east side of Florida below JAX.

 

[SWJJ]

Current Projections have the storm coming ashore further south of Tampa.

 

[superchuck500]

South of Sarasota now.

 

[efil4stnias]

South of Sarasota now.

Spares Tampa but now puts Ft Myers in bulls eye

Sigh.

 

[superchuck500]

Spares Tampa but now puts Ft Myers in bulls eye

Sigh.

And look at how near it gets to the Atlantic on the east side.

 

[Bill]

The NFL still expecting to play a game in Tampa on Sunday?

The issue for the league is whether the state of Florida could/should use resources after a major disaster to put on a football game in the state. As I understand they are making arrangements to play at a neutral site outside the state.

But really they ought to just play the game in Kansas City and call it a Bucs ‘home’ game just as they did for some team from New Orleans after a devastating hurricane in 2005.

 

[where yat brah]

I was supposed to fly into MCO Wed PM and out Thurs AM.
Spirit let me change the flights to FLL.
Now, I'm beginning to think that even that may be risky

 

[Bayouboy]

No way Tampa Bay is playing a home game this week. No forking way.

 

[efil4stnias]

And look at how near it gets to the Atlantic on the east side.

the lone bright spot to that is the w/sw and due s side will be over land.

My understanding of cane regeneration mechanism is that the west side ( from N to S ) is where the moisture/heat gets introduced, and as it spins up thru East side, is where the storms "power" is generated from.

But thats possibly quite wrong and my luck, reverse. meaning the "power generation" half will be over water.

way too close to Gulf Stream

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Eeyore]

Then

Yes. If the flooding models are accurate, you are talking damage that only Harvey can contend with. A real "worst case scenario" for the area. Hopefully those in harms way can get out. I know that area is not nearly as poor as New Orleans.....so most have the means to leave.

After Ida, I was just thinking in my head how long can insurance stay affordable for those of us along the Gulf coast? For many decades, these killer storms were rare....giving insurers time to recoup their losses. Currently, major hurricanes are hitting home at a much more frequent rate. I'm thinking in the next couple years, wind and hail will be too expensive for most homeowners. Then what, when one of these monsters comes visit???

Then corporations buy the land and turn it into resorts, hotels, etc., along with rental properties for the staff.