2022 Tropical Season thread MERGE (2 Viewers)

[Saint_Ward]

Got pretty soggy here. Spots in Miami, ft. Lauderdale , And Hollywood flooded. We had a little water in the porch. Two small trees by us fell. Think the ground got too wet and couldn't support the weight. Like, no wind.

 

[superchuck500]

1738 on TikTok

#miami #foryourpage #fypシ 👀😳

www.tiktok.com

 

[bclemms]

Some.people, Jim Cantore and others at the Weather Channel that means you, fall into that category of being "fear-mongerers", as well as despicable, smug, self-righteous priggish butt crevasses who always act like their pissing in their collective pants with glee whenever some TS or hurricane appears to be headed towards the Gulf Coast from June-November. Their sorry, sanctimonious arses can fly in their Weather Channel corporate planes to survey the damage, talk to locals who've nearly Lost their minds, as well as their homes, and livliehoods. Meanwhile, once their sorry-arse, put on photo-op, " destruction" tour is over, they can all hop back on their forking planes, drink free alcohol, and return to their air-conditioned, climate controlled homes and apartments in Atlanta, and never HAVE TO forkING WORRY ABOUT WHAT ITS LIKE TO LIVE IN TERROR WATCHING A CAT 4 HURRICANE SLOWLY CREEP TOWARDS THE CITY WHERE THEY LIVE AND wonder how much their going to lose this time once all hell breaks out.

Over the past several years, Ive come to view most of the TS and Hurricane experts as well as the on-location meteorologists as "the enemy", baseless, unethical, sensationalist butt crevasses who love to stoke up fear, worry, resentment, extreme concern because they act like every Tropical Wave, every 93L that forms off the west coast of Africa is coming straight to Central or Eastern Gulf Coasts. I make no apologies for how much I dislike or even worse, hate them right now, many long-time SR.com posters are well aware of my feelings towards Cantore, Mike Slidell, and Mike Bettis on the Weather Channel.

 

[Saintman2884]

Do you think Slidel, Bettis, or Cantore live in a city like Miami or any other East Coast or GOM city where residents lose power, homes, life insurance, are faced with the prospect of homelessness, social dislocation, depression, severe anxiety. The WC types fly down to cities like Miami, Lake Charles, LA or New Orleans after TS or hurricanes hit, pretend to care about the collective misery, suffering, and agony while coming across as smug, and condescending and after maybe a week at the most, they fly back to their climate-controlled homes, condominiums in a city that will never have to worry about staring down the barrel of a Cat 5 hurricane like residents in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach or even inner-city areas in Miami like Liberty Heights.

I don't what posting these videos are supposed to make me feel. Sympathy for the people living in South Florida who have to put up with this perennial bullshirt like we in Mobile, New Orleans, Biloxi or Gulfport, or Lake Charles or Houston/Galveston? Sure, their in the same collective boat as me. But don't expect to me to change my perceptions of some of the Weather Channel's "best and brightest" on-location metereologists/commentators who come across focusing on these hurricanes like their on some damn HS rollicking adventure.

 

[bclemms]

Do you think Slidel, Bettis, or Cantore live in a city like Miami or any other East Coast or GOM city where residents lose power, homes, life insurance, are faced with the prospect of homelessness, social dislocation, depression, severe anxiety. The WC types fly down to cities like Miami, Lake Charles, LA or New Orleans after TS or hurricanes hit, pretend to care about the collective misery, suffering, and agony while coming across as smug, and condescending and after maybe a week at the most, they fly back to their climate-controlled homes, condominiums in a city that will never have to worry about staring down the barrel of a Cat 5 hurricane like residents in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach or even inner-city areas in Miami like Liberty Heights.

I don't what posting these videos are supposed to make me feel. Sympathy for the people living in South Florida who have to put up with this perennial bullshirt like we in Mobile, New Orleans, Biloxi or Gulfport, or Lake Charles or Houston/Galveston? Sure, their in the same collective boat as me. But don't expect to me to change my perceptions of some of the Weather Channel's "best and brightest" on-location metereologists/commentators who come across focusing on these hurricanes like their on some damn HS rollicking adventure.

The point of those videos, maybe it was a little bit more than just hype and just rain? The fact that so many were out clubbing while an urban area was getting 13" of rain then driving through it one after the other like sheep being led to slaughter only needing to be rescued was just insane. Perhaps forecasters were not strong enough with their language. Ignoring rainfall totals from tropical systems, regardless if it has a name would be ignoring some of the costliest disasters the last couple of decades. Hell, you would think anyone in Louisiana would know that after 2016, Tropical Storm Allison and Tropical Storm Imelda.

You are just like everyone else I see griping about the media. You know who bitched more than anyone about the media? Lake Charles. The people in Lake Charles sounded exactly like you for a week leading up to Laura. Then Laura hit, the media covered it for a day or two while hearing people birch and scream about how horrible they are, having people sling nasty comments on them online and in person. Then you know what happened next? They left. After two days, they all had so much of it, they left. You know what happened after that? Everyone in Lake Charles started griping, "where is the media" "why are we being ignored" and on and on. You know what else happened? When the media quit talking about it and all the attention went away, the financial aid dried up really fast too.

While on one hand you have a point and I totally agree the hype around weather has reached hysteria in most cases you are also only seeing one angle. If you don't want sensational media then watch PBS but America has made it quite clear that they want hype, they want to be scared and they want sensationalism and if the media doesn't do it they don't survive. So as a result, all of your griping above is you just hating America for what it is. I don't do it. I don't post forecasts, just show what's happening in storms and the aftermath.

 

[Saintman2884]

The point of those videos, maybe it was a little bit more than just hype and just rain? The fact that so many were out clubbing while an urban area was getting 13" of rain then driving through it one after the other like sheep being led to slaughter only needing to be rescued was just insane. Perhaps forecasters were not strong enough with their language. Ignoring rainfall totals from tropical systems, regardless if it has a name would be ignoring some of the costliest disasters the last couple of decades. Hell, you would think anyone in Louisiana would know that after 2016, Tropical Storm Allison and Tropical Storm Imelda.

You are just like everyone else I see griping about the media. You know who bitched more than anyone about the media? Lake Charles. The people in Lake Charles sounded exactly like you for a week leading up to Laura. Then Laura hit, the media covered it for a day or two while hearing people birch and scream about how horrible they are, having people sling nasty comments on them online and in person. Then you know what happened next? They left. After two days, they all had so much of it, they left. You know what happened after that? Everyone in Lake Charles started griping, "where is the media" "why are we being ignored" and on and on. You know what else happened? When the media quit talking about it and all the attention went away, the financial aid dried up really fast too.

While on one hand you have a point and I totally agree the hype around weather has reached hysteria in most cases you are also only seeing one angle. If you don't want sensational media then watch PBS but America has made it quite clear that they want hype, they want to be scared and they want sensationalism and if the media doesn't do it they don't survive. So as a result, all of your griping above is you just hating America for what it is. I don't do it. I don't post forecasts, just show what's happening in storms and the aftermath.

And isn't it quite sad that I have to watch PBS for sober, sensationalist, fear hyping, scare-inducing stories because so many MSM outlets know extreme amounts of flash and hyperbole than substantiative, authentic news with substance resonates with so many in this country? I'm not hating on anyone, if anything, I'm criticizing a serious, collective character flaw, one among many. But if I really despised my country, I'd be complaining about a lot more then just this, trust me.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Awe Man, should have told me you were here. Would have gotten a beer.

 

[efil4stnias]

Awe Man, should have told me you were here. Would have gotten a beer.

Ward and bclemms.

 

[FL_Saint]

We didn't get nearly as much rain as you all did in SFL. I heard from some friends in Davie that the flooding was bad - as those videos show.

We tend make light of "rain with a name" type of storms, but I remember how bad it got in 1995 in Slidell and Denham Springs in 2016. Relentless rain can be devastating, even without high winds.

 

[bclemms]

Awe Man, should have told me you were here. Would have gotten a beer.

I would have loved to. Literally landed at 9pm and was on a flight out at 2:45 the next day.

 

[gboudx]

Jeff Lindner has been sending emails about this potential system in the GoM since late last week. I figured I'd start putting them here now. He's also addressing 2 potential systems in the Caribbean, but I won't post those until/unless they start to show impacts to the lower 48. One of them looks to go into Honduras/Nicaragua.

Potential for weak surface low to develop over the NW Gulf.

Surface observations from oil platforms, buoys, and ships in the northern Gulf of Mexico along with coastal radars at Lake Charles and Houston indicate that the surface trough of low pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico is potentially starting develop into a broad area of low pressure. Surface pressures at buoy 42002 have been falling overnight, but wind patterns over the NW Gulf are weak and do not show any defined surface low at this time. Radars show broad circulation centered in the 150-200 mile range SE of Galveston and south of Lake Charles. Scattered thunderstorms exist from off the southern LA coast to off of Matagorda Bay, but are disorganized.

Global models continue to show some potential for weak development with 95L as it moves slowly toward the west today and Wednesday and then turns northward along the lower and mid TX coast Thursday and Friday. Nearly all of the model guidance shows some form of closed low near the S TX coast later this week, but vary on the formation location of the system and the rainfall impacts along the TX coast. 95L will slowly move westward at 5-10mph for the next 48 hours and approach the lower and mid TX coast. Deep tropical moisture with associated PWS of 2.0-2.2 inches on the eastern side of the system will begin to move NW and N over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and start spreading inland over SE TX on Thursday into Friday.

Rainfall forecasts and amounts through the end of the week will be strongly dependent on how 95L evolves. If the system remains very weak and more of an open trough, rainfall will be spread out along the TX coast. If the system closes off into a more well defined surface low, rainfall will tend to contract toward the center of the low and to the east of the track of the surface center. There is some weak consensus in the model data that the weak system approaches the lower TX coast late Wednesday into early Thursday and then either opens into a trough or turns northward into a weakness over eastern TX and the moisture and any circulation is then brought northward over Matagorda Bay and the western portions of SE TX. This would bring periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms into SE TX and the Matagorda Bay region Thursday and Friday and some of this rainfall would likely be heavy. This general track of 95L would place much of SE TX on the “wet” eastern flank of the circulation.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible south of I-10 Thursday and Friday with totals of 1-2 inches north of I-10. These amounts may need to be increased some depending on how 95L evolves and tracks over the next 2-3 days.

Given the continued uncertainty in the evolution of 95L, keep updated with forecasts frequently as changes are likely.

 

[Saint_Ward]

For above.

 

[faceman]

We didn't get nearly as much rain as you all did in SFL. I heard from some friends in Davie that the flooding was bad - as those videos show.

We tend make light of "rain with a name" type of storms, but I remember how bad it got in 1995 in Slidell and Denham Springs in 2016. Relentless rain can be devastating, even without high winds.

I remember the 500 year flood on the Ms. coast in 95. It was an early season cold front that got stalled. Thunderstorms
began to train. We got something like 28 inches in 24 hours. It was not a tropical event. A friend of mine who had a home
on the Biloxi river had water over his roof. Hide from the wind. Run from the water is still great advice.

 

[bclemms]

I remember the 500 year flood on the Ms. coast in 95. It was an early season cold front that got stalled. Thunderstorms
began to train. We got something like 28 inches in 24 hours. It was not a tropical event. A friend of mine who had a home
on the Biloxi river had water over his roof. Hide from the wind. Run from the water is still great advice.

Yeah, that was a stalled front. Can't remember if it was May 3rd or May 8th. Northshore got slammed hard on that one too.

 

[Doug B]

Yeah, that was a stalled front. Can't remember if it was May 3rd or May 8th.

May 8th, 1995. The May 3rd one was 1979, I believe. (EDIT -- I shoulda looked it up -- it was May 3rd, 1978)

The 1995 flood, in Metairie:

I had driven to my friend's house late afternoon, during a light rain. We took a ride to ZM Video about an hour later, in a heavier but not terrible rain.

Around 8:00, we cracked open beers and started a game of chess in his carpeted front room. The rain kept getting harder and harder, but you know -- it rains hard in New Orleans all the time, no biggie.

About an hour into the game ... we noticed that the carpet was starting to float. We commenced to getting all electronics, valuables, and some furniture off the floor in the rest of the house pronto. The ended up with about eight inches of water in the house.

That week was the first time I ever saw a FEMA trailer -- my friend's neighbors had gotten one.