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The 2022 offseason was huge--the front-office embrace of continuity in the wake of Payton's departure, the naming of Dennis Allen to replace Payton, the loss of Armstead and Williams in free agency, the massive trade with Philadelphia, two first-round selections. But I am going to suggest that this offseason, a 90-day period beginning with yesterday's transaction with Denver, will be just as telling as what happened last year.
With the end of the 2022 season, the organization had three paths it can take--same path, somewhat different path, dramatically different path. By keeping Allen, the organization has rejected taking a dramatically different path. As in 2022, when we lost Armstead and Marcus Williams, the NFL's business model with its hard salary-cap is going to require some difficult personnel decisions and a likely net free-agency loss--that is, our losses in free agency will outweigh our acquisitions. Because of salary cap, it has been years since we had a really major free-agent signing--was it Demario Davis five years ago--and we have seen the free agents teams like Philadelphia can sign because of a quarterback playing under his rookie contract and salary-cap space. Indeed, the Saints are in the worst of all positions--salary-cap hell and no young quarterback under a rookie contract.
Two incredible statistics are that the Saints have traded up 24 times since 2007 and that the Saints have not traded down since the 2007 draft. A consequence is far fewer draft picks than other teams, a roster with few quality players who were drafted in rounds four through seven, and many player needs.
If we continue the same path we are on, we will continue to do what we have been doing--pushing salary-cap dollars to future years and trading up in the draft using future draft picks--to try to win the NFL South, perhaps the worst division in football. And we will probably make a splash signing at quarterback, such as Derek Carr, a move that some on this board favor.
If we take a different path, we will begin to move "to the middle" regarding salary-cap positioning, as Loomis suggested at his press conference after the season, however painful; we will place greater emphasis on draft picks--perhaps even trading down; and we will continue with Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill at quarterback, looking for a young quarterback in the 2023 draft or 2024 draft. In short, we will finally end the Payton-Brees era and begin a transition to a new one, which will entail some short-term pain.
My belief is that with Dennis Allen pushing the organization to do whatever can be done to win in 2023 because his job is on the line, Loomis will largely continue to do what he has been doing, though hopefully we will not continue to trade away future draft picks. But the next 90 days will answer the question of how does the Saints organization view its team--a contending team or a team in transition. And that vision will have ramifications beyond 2023.
With the end of the 2022 season, the organization had three paths it can take--same path, somewhat different path, dramatically different path. By keeping Allen, the organization has rejected taking a dramatically different path. As in 2022, when we lost Armstead and Marcus Williams, the NFL's business model with its hard salary-cap is going to require some difficult personnel decisions and a likely net free-agency loss--that is, our losses in free agency will outweigh our acquisitions. Because of salary cap, it has been years since we had a really major free-agent signing--was it Demario Davis five years ago--and we have seen the free agents teams like Philadelphia can sign because of a quarterback playing under his rookie contract and salary-cap space. Indeed, the Saints are in the worst of all positions--salary-cap hell and no young quarterback under a rookie contract.
Two incredible statistics are that the Saints have traded up 24 times since 2007 and that the Saints have not traded down since the 2007 draft. A consequence is far fewer draft picks than other teams, a roster with few quality players who were drafted in rounds four through seven, and many player needs.
If we continue the same path we are on, we will continue to do what we have been doing--pushing salary-cap dollars to future years and trading up in the draft using future draft picks--to try to win the NFL South, perhaps the worst division in football. And we will probably make a splash signing at quarterback, such as Derek Carr, a move that some on this board favor.
If we take a different path, we will begin to move "to the middle" regarding salary-cap positioning, as Loomis suggested at his press conference after the season, however painful; we will place greater emphasis on draft picks--perhaps even trading down; and we will continue with Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill at quarterback, looking for a young quarterback in the 2023 draft or 2024 draft. In short, we will finally end the Payton-Brees era and begin a transition to a new one, which will entail some short-term pain.
My belief is that with Dennis Allen pushing the organization to do whatever can be done to win in 2023 because his job is on the line, Loomis will largely continue to do what he has been doing, though hopefully we will not continue to trade away future draft picks. But the next 90 days will answer the question of how does the Saints organization view its team--a contending team or a team in transition. And that vision will have ramifications beyond 2023.
