A (controversial) opinion on how to attack the 2021 offseason (1 Viewer)

[guillermo]

As always, before starting let me say that it is too early in the process, that frankly we don't have much information on what may be happening at the saints complex. This is just an opinion. And I know it won't be popular.

Let's start with the good news. Even if we loose players I think we have depth to be competitive and make the playoffs. I am not sure we will be able to win again the division, but we will compete.

A week before free agency, we are facing three basic problems, and frankly, we will not be able to solve all of them.

For the first one, it is mandatory to find a solution. It is to accommodate the roster (including extensions, signings, rookies, etc) at a reduce cap number. Right now we are around over 40 million over. I read we will have around 4.5 million credit from previous years (good news). There are ways to do it, but once again we will be committing future resources, and reducing our flexibility on the future.

The second one is to find the best option available to replace Drew Brees. The better the option, the most expensive it will be (in money and possibly assets).

The third one is to keep most of the current roster, and figure out how we can accommodate future blue chip extensions for Lattimore, Armstead, and Ramczyk. We won't achieve this one if we indeed solve the first two problems.

Like it or not, the saints are currently making a difficult decision on what is more important: to go for the fences trying to get the best replacement for Drew or to keep the roster as tight as we can. We can't do both, and we have to face the reality of the problem.

Let's think on the obvious choice: Jameis. If he is the guy for next season, then we have to add at least around 16 million (current salary of Taysom) to accommodate his salary, or to present him a backloaded contract that may not be that attractive to him. So we would still need to cut around 60 million in order to be under the cap and add Winston's salary. And I am not including the rookie money yet.

I am sure Jameis wants to stay, but there will be other teams inquiring about him (I can think of Chicago at least calling to see if they can find a common deal with him). If we decide to go for Watson and Wilson, then we will need to purge more the cap and roster. Realistically I can't see how.

Right now we only have one quarterback signed, Taysom Hill at around 16-17 million. If he is not going to be the starter, then the guy who would may be getting around the same annual salary (if it's not a rookie). Taysom is not perfect but he gave us a winning record, and yes, a lot of headaches.

With the maturity of our roster, and the quality of our players, I am thinking short and long term, and I am not willing to mortgage even more the future on backloaded contracts, I am sure we learned from the experiences of Lofton and Byrd, and what it cost in years on the rebuilding process.

One thing is for sure, we are now better in our draft choices, so I will try to keep as many picks as I can to replace the players that we may be losing because fo the cap (like possibly Hendrickson, Williams, Sanders, Janoris Jenkins, etc).

The only exception I will make is to draft a quarterback. If we can find a player that we think we can start at least from the 2022 season, I will trade up and get him. That will give us 5 years of a rookie salary to clean our cap and retain most of our players. I am not sure how far we can go up to grab either Justin Fields or Mac Jones, but it is an interesting avenue to consider.

I know we all prefer to have a player like Jameis, but it comes with a cost, maybe going with Taysom and/or a rookie is not such a bad idea.

 

[Taker597]

I agree, but Saints have been Ice Cold on QB prospects since the Senior Bowl. They're been more leaks of them really liking certain DL or LB than of the projected QBs to be within our range.

I think they would even just flat out go with Hill if all options fall through and try drafting a QB next year from 11-15th range.

Another reason for them to drag their feet is simply to gage if they are going to get their QB1 option or not. If they strike out. They can probably audible and eat some of these cap hit and not be as aggressive.

 

[mr.t]

As always, before starting let me say that it is too early in the process, that frankly we don't have much information on what may be happening at the saints complex. This is just an opinion. And I know it won't be popular.

Let's start with the good news. Even if we loose players I think we have depth to be competitive and make the playoffs. I am not sure we will be able to win again the division, but we will compete.

A week before free agency, we are facing three basic problems, and frankly, we will not be able to solve all of them.

For the first one, it is mandatory to find a solution. It is to accommodate the roster (including extensions, signings, rookies, etc) at a reduce cap number. Right now we are around over 40 million over. I read we will have around 4.5 million credit from previous years (good news). There are ways to do it, but once again we will be committing future resources, and reducing our flexibility on the future.

The second one is to find the best option available to replace Drew Brees. The better the option, the most expensive it will be (in money and possibly assets).

The third one is to keep most of the current roster, and figure out how we can accommodate future blue chip extensions for Lattimore, Armstead, and Ramczyk. We won't achieve this one if we indeed solve the first two problems.

Like it or not, the saints are currently making a difficult decision on what is more important: to go for the fences trying to get the best replacement for Drew or to keep the roster as tight as we can. We can't do both, and we have to face the reality of the problem.

Let's think on the obvious choice: Jameis. If he is the guy for next season, then we have to add at least around 16 million (current salary of Taysom) to accommodate his salary, or to present him a backloaded contract that may not be that attractive to him. So we would still need to cut around 60 million in order to be under the cap and add Winston's salary. And I am not including the rookie money yet.

I am sure Jameis wants to stay, but there will be other teams inquiring about him (I can think of Chicago at least calling to see if they can find a common deal with him). If we decide to go for Watson and Wilson, then we will need to purge more the cap and roster. Realistically I can't see how.

Right now we only have one quarterback signed, Taysom Hill at around 16-17 million. If he is not going to be the starter, then the guy who would may be getting around the same annual salary (if it's not a rookie). Taysom is not perfect but he gave us a winning record, and yes, a lot of headaches.

With the maturity of our roster, and the quality of our players, I am thinking short and long term, and I am not willing to mortgage even more the future on backloaded contracts, I am sure we learned from the experiences of Lofton and Byrd, and what it cost in years on the rebuilding process.

One thing is for sure, we are now better in our draft choices, so I will try to keep as many picks as I can to replace the players that we may be losing because fo the cap (like possibly Hendrickson, Williams, Sanders, Janoris Jenkins, etc).

The only exception I will make is to draft a quarterback. If we can find a player that we think we can start at least from the 2022 season, I will trade up and get him. That will give us 5 years of a rookie salary to clean our cap and retain most of our players. I am not sure how far we can go up to grab either Justin Fields or Mac Jones, but it is an interesting avenue to consider.

I know we all prefer to have a player like Jameis, but it comes with a cost, maybe going with Taysom and/or a rookie is not such a bad idea.

Makes sense, but I believe we are 48 million over as of now.

 

[guillermo]

Makes sense, but I believe we are 48 million over as of now.

We will have to add Jameis' money(in case he is the guy) plus the rookie pool money. Decisions won't be easy. It is not just some accounting magic this time.

 

[Saint Spud]

The third issue actually helps the first two: if/when we reach extensions with Lattimore and Ramczyk, it will lower their 2021 cap hit and give us more room, not less.

We’ll see how it plays out. I understand your position that you don’t want to spend future money now. Unfortunately (or fortunately for those of us who want the Saints to keep pushing to put the best team on the field now), that’s not how the Saints operate.

Maybe the bill will finally come due in 2022 when our cap situation will be even worse than now. Or maybe, like always, Loomis and Harley will find a way to squeeze under and take advantage of loopholes to put the best team humanly possible on the field while kicking the can in perpetuity.

 

[BreesHOF2024]

We desperately need a rookie contract at QB and offload some of the terrible contracts we've given out in recent years. Why we signed Taysom to that deal when we know we have Latt, Ram and Williams coming due is a complete mystery to me. Even CJGJ is going to come due in a couple years and he's not going to be cheap either.

 

[guillermo]

The third issue actually helps the first two: if/when we reach extensions with Lattimore and Ramczyk, it will lower their 2021 cap hit and give us more room, not less.

I am not sure about that, Lattimore's current cap hit is $10.224 million and Ramczyk's is $11.064 million, according to Over the Cap. I am not sure we can sign them long term and have even a lower amount.

 

[Saint Spud]

I am not sure about that, Lattimore's current cap hit is $10.224 million and Ramczyk's is $11.064 million, according to Over the Cap. I am not sure we can sign them long term and have even a lower amount.

You spread out the cap hit on the guarantees and make the first year base salary closr to the minimum.

For example, we gave Kamara a $15 million a year extension before last season. But his 2020 cap hit was only $5 million.

Here’s a good breakdown of what it could look like for Ram, depending on the final numbers:

 

[Saint Spud]

And here’s Rapoport discussing it as well.



This is part of the misconception from some National media about the Saints’ cap situation: there are nearly endless ways to manage it and the Saints always have a plan.

 

[Optimistic Ozzy]

Roll with Taysom and sign a vet, cheap. Trade Lattimore and extend Ram. Those are some big issues I can deal with right now.

 

[Stalwart385]

As always, before starting let me say that it is too early in the process, that frankly we don't have much information on what may be happening at the saints complex. This is just an opinion. And I know it won't be popular.

Let's start with the good news. Even if we loose players I think we have depth to be competitive and make the playoffs. I am not sure we will be able to win again the division, but we will compete.

A week before free agency, we are facing three basic problems, and frankly, we will not be able to solve all of them.

For the first one, it is mandatory to find a solution. It is to accommodate the roster (including extensions, signings, rookies, etc) at a reduce cap number. Right now we are around over 40 million over. I read we will have around 4.5 million credit from previous years (good news). There are ways to do it, but once again we will be committing future resources, and reducing our flexibility on the future.

The second one is to find the best option available to replace Drew Brees. The better the option, the most expensive it will be (in money and possibly assets).

The third one is to keep most of the current roster, and figure out how we can accommodate future blue chip extensions for Lattimore, Armstead, and Ramczyk. We won't achieve this one if we indeed solve the first two problems.

Like it or not, the saints are currently making a difficult decision on what is more important: to go for the fences trying to get the best replacement for Drew or to keep the roster as tight as we can. We can't do both, and we have to face the reality of the problem.

Let's think on the obvious choice: Jameis. If he is the guy for next season, then we have to add at least around 16 million (current salary of Taysom) to accommodate his salary, or to present him a backloaded contract that may not be that attractive to him. So we would still need to cut around 60 million in order to be under the cap and add Winston's salary. And I am not including the rookie money yet.

I am sure Jameis wants to stay, but there will be other teams inquiring about him (I can think of Chicago at least calling to see if they can find a common deal with him). If we decide to go for Watson and Wilson, then we will need to purge more the cap and roster. Realistically I can't see how.

Right now we only have one quarterback signed, Taysom Hill at around 16-17 million. If he is not going to be the starter, then the guy who would may be getting around the same annual salary (if it's not a rookie). Taysom is not perfect but he gave us a winning record, and yes, a lot of headaches.

With the maturity of our roster, and the quality of our players, I am thinking short and long term, and I am not willing to mortgage even more the future on backloaded contracts, I am sure we learned from the experiences of Lofton and Byrd, and what it cost in years on the rebuilding process.

One thing is for sure, we are now better in our draft choices, so I will try to keep as many picks as I can to replace the players that we may be losing because fo the cap (like possibly Hendrickson, Williams, Sanders, Janoris Jenkins, etc).

The only exception I will make is to draft a quarterback. If we can find a player that we think we can start at least from the 2022 season, I will trade up and get him. That will give us 5 years of a rookie salary to clean our cap and retain most of our players. I am not sure how far we can go up to grab either Justin Fields or Mac Jones, but it is an interesting avenue to consider.

I know we all prefer to have a player like Jameis, but it comes with a cost, maybe going with Taysom and/or a rookie is not such a bad idea.

I've always prefered Taysom (and a rookie) for this very reason. I would only want to risk altering the roster for a QB if he's a known commodity. I'm not against signing Jameis but I don't think we are in a position for risky moves if they are expensive.

I'm perfectly fine rolling the dice for one year with what we got. Keep the roster together, let our cap (and the league's cap) rebound, then attack the QB market in 2022. The best-case scenario for me would be drafting a rookie to get a year in the system to add to our choices on the cheap.

 

[Stalwart385]

You spread out the cap hit on the guarantees and make the first year base salary closr to the minimum.

For example, we gave Kamara a $15 million a year extension before last season. But his 2020 cap hit was only $5 million.

Here’s a good breakdown of what it could look like for Ram, depending on the final numbers:

Those moves aren't the issue for me. It's what happens after you settle the negative cap issue. Can we compete for Williams, Hendrickson, Rankins, etc and our FA's next year? When will we be able to rebound the middle class that made our roster strong? It certainly seems we are losing more than we are gaining this year. It looks like we will be pushing younger guys at positions to go cheaper. In the past we would have a young guy and a vet to keep that position secure. Now it looks like they may just roll the dice (TE, P, DT?, LB?).

 

[Saint Spud]

Those moves aren't the issue for me. It's what happens after you settle the negative cap issue. Can we compete for Williams, Hendrickson, Rankins, etc and our FA's next year? When will we be able to rebound the middle class that made our roster strong? It looks like we will be pushing younger guys at positions to go cheaper. In the past we would have a young guy and a vet to keep that position secure. Now it looks like they may just roll the dice (TE, P, DT?, LB?).

Thats why you draft well.

You don’t build the middle of your roster by going out and signing other free agents. That’s how you overpay and get yourself in real cap trouble.

Which free agents are you concerned about losing next year?

 

[Stalwart385]

Thats why you draft well.

You don’t build the middle of your roster by going out and signing other free agents. That’s how you overlay and get yourself in real cap trouble.

Which free agents are you concerned about losing next year?

I'm talking middle class FA's. The moves we always make. Not the roster busters. The Malcolm Browns and Demario Davis (when he first signed).

Off the top of my head, DE is a growing problem. Hendrickson is likely to walk. Say Davenport has a healthy year, you might have a big contract there. If not you are looking for an answer still.

I agree you need to draft well for a good team, but you also shouldn't go into the draft with needs. You need to be active enough in free agency to solve that. I'm sure they figure out something, but the answers get weaker and riskier.

 

[Saint Spud]

I'm talking middle class FA's. The moves we always make. Not the roster busters. The Malcolm Browns and Demario Davis (when he first signed).

Off the top of my head, DE is a growing problem. Hendrickson is likely to walk. Say Davenport has a healthy year, you might have a big contract there. If not you are looking for an answer still.

I agree you need to draft well for a good team, but you also shouldn't go into the draft with needs. You need to be active enough in free agency to solve that. I'm sure they figure out something, but the answers get weaker and riskier.

Ironically, the level of free agents you’re talking about will likely have to take low, prove-it, one-year deals this offseason. That’s a big discussion with the cap dropping.

It’s pretty clear the Saints feel good about the DL players theyre working with. Roach and Tuttle have both flashed and should get better with more reps and time with Nielsen. Same with Granderson. And if they genuinely don’t think they have enough good DEs on the roster, there are a ton available, although there are rarely many quality DEs who get to free agency at the price level you’re talking about anyway.

The bigger issue is this: you can’t just waste 2021. And I’m sorry, but going into the season with Taysom as your presumptive starting QB is a waste. This roster is too good and, by the time you can go out and sign 2-3 Malcom Brown or Coby Fleeners, your Michael Thomases, Alvin Kamaras, Marshon Lattimores, Ryan Ramczyks, Demario Davises and Cam Jordans are all 2-3 years older and closer to the end.