A look at the top 10...and the potential trading that could take place (1 Viewer)

REALCHRISM

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I have been working hard trying to complete my evaluations of each team and player and, subsequently, put together a mock draft. Today, I decided to look exclusively at the top 10 and project some of the trades we might see occur happen on draft day. Of course, there is no way that anyone can say for certain what will happen on draft day. But I think it is possible that you might see a lot of jockeying for position by teams who are trying to secure an elite prospect in this draft. This draft has about 6 players that carry, in my opinion, an elite grade. They are Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston, Chris Long, and Jake Long. There are a few other plays who are super blue chip prospects such as Keith Rivers, Leodis McKelvin, Ryan Clady and, Matt Ryan, amongst a few others. Some of the RBs also factor into that group like Jonathan Stewart, Rashad Mendenhall, and Felix Jones. One of the more intriguing prospects in the entire draft is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. I said it a month ago and I stand by it, this guy has superb skills and a lot of talent. I think if he's coming out of a big-name school, there's no question that he is a top 15 pick. I think his play at the senior bowl has moved him up, although I am going to stop short of saying that he has solidified a first round grade. I definitely think he has solidified a second round grade. With a strong showing at the combine, he could catapult into the middle of the first round. That remains to be seen. I am on the borderline with Kenny Phillips. I think he's a terrific player and the best safety in this draft. I think he also falls into the category of being a blue chip prospect even though I have heard that he has fallen on some boards. I think once he goes out and runs at the combine and personal day, he will move back up. I am not ready, however, to call him an elite prospect. I think he's very good and will make an impact. But to call him elite at this stage would be a bit reaching. I think what teams are going to find in this draft is that there isn't much that separates a player in the first round from a player taken in the second round. This draft is not top heavy in terms of elite talent but has a solid number of prospects that carry nice grades. You will be able to get a solid player in the third, fourth and even fifth round and it'll be important for teams NOT to get rid of all their respective draft choices by trading up.

The following is an example, to me, of what we could see in terms of trading on draft day involving the top 10 picks.

***Cinncinatti trades Chad Johnson, their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick, and their fourth round pick to the Dolphins for their 1st pick and third round pick.***

1. Bengals--Vernon Gholston, LB/DE I truly believe that Gholston will have superior workout numbers that could catapult him to the top of the draft board. He may even be a consideration for Miami if they choose to stay put at #1. Gholston is solid off the edge and plays very fast. If he can run in the 4.5 or, even better, sub 4.5 range, he will likely move up and become the top prospect on a lot of draft boards. Teams love players with the ability to rush the passer and Gholston brings that to the table. I could see the Bengals making the move if the rumors of them moving to a 3-4 defense are true. With David Pollack possibly making a comeback, this would give them two solid rushers off the end. Mike Zimmer is the new DC and loves the 3-4 defense, so this a great possibility for them to make the move.

2. Rams--Jake Long, OT Orlando Pace is 32 and has missed a number of games over the last three seasons with injuries. The Rams' offense looked pedestrian at times last year and clearly suffered from not having solid play from its offensive line. Last year, Joe Thomas was taken 3rd by Cleveland and had a huge impact on the Browns offensive production. I think the Rams will flirt with the idea of taking Chris Long and will consider Dorsey and Ellis because of the talents that they each bring to the table, but in the end will choose a guy who can help open holes and protect the investment they have made in Marc Bulger.

***Dallas trades the Marion Barber, the #22 and #29 pick to the Raiders for the #3 pick.***

3. Cowboys--Darren McFadden, RB The Cowboys are looking to move up to grab McFadden. The speculation is that Miami will be the target but I cannot see Jerry Jones and Bill Parcells brokering a deal. In addition, I think that with the expected return of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins might not be interested in Barber despite his being coached by Parcells. This trade would make sense for the Raiders who have a RB in Fargas that is an URFA and two other RBs in Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes, who both are not expected back. The Raiders have a lot of needs at DE, DT, WR, and OL and this can give them the opportunity to address those needs while adding a top 10 RB. Pat Sims, Chris Williams, Limas Sweed, Phillip Merling and Early Doucet are some of the guys who could be available in the late first and early second for them.

4. Falcons--Matt Ryan, QB I know that with the choice of Smith as HC, there will be some who think that the Falcons will go defense. And with Ellis and Dorsey on the board, why not? But I just believe that the Falcons are really going to try to get past the Michael Vick era and start anew. And what better way to do that than by drafting a QB that they can build the franchise around. Ryan has uncanny intangibles and a drive to win. While I do not see him as a definitive elite prospect, he's a solid blue chip talent and a guy who has the talent to be successful and win if you surround him with the right guys.

***Saints trade Jon Stinchcomb, OT, and their 4th round draft choice to the Chiefs in exchange for the 5th pick overall from the Chiefs.***

5. SAINTS--SEDRICK ELLIS, DT I know this will come as a shock to many, particularly with Glenn Dorsey on the board. I like Dorsey a lot and could very well see this pick being Dorsey. But given that Orgeron has some experience with Ellis, I could see Ellis getting the pick. You really can't go wrong either way. I like the leverage that Ellis plays with and the way he engages and, subsequently, disengages from offensive lineman. He uses his hands really well and has a non-stop motor. He moves the line of scrimmage and would do wonders for our defensive pressure up front. I think the trade would make sense for the Chiefs and Saints. Stinchcomb would give them the ability to address issues on their offensive line and, at the same time, still have a chance to draft another top flight player in the top 10. I think the trade makes sense for New Orleans, where there have been some rumors that Jammal Brown could be moved back to RT with Bushrod assuming the LT position. Even if Brown stays at LT, Bushrod and Strief could easily replace Stinchcomb. I think this trade would be smarter for the Saints than giving up too many early draft choices.

6. Jets--Chris Long, DE Long fits into the 3-4 system that the Jets run. He has a good motor and plays with a lot of intensity. He'll be a key piece in helping the Jets to continue to improve their defense.

7. Patriots--Leodis McKelvin, CB Should the Patriots lose Asante Samuel, they will be very weak at the CB position. Of course, they could look to FA to fill the void left by Samuel's departure. If not, they will certainly have to look to fill the hole in the draft. Right now, McKelvin is my highest rated CB and would be an excellent pick for the Patriots. He is very fluid, plays the ball really well in the air and has solid recovery speed. The pick makes sense from a need standpoint, HOWEVER, don't rule out the Patriots going with something totally out of the blue. Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers are two guys who might get consideration as well as Mike Jenkins.

8. Ravens--Mike Jenkins, CB The Ravens may look to trade down, but if they stay put, I can see Jenkins being the pick. They will like to upgrade their secondary and Jenkins is a very solid prospect. The Ravens will likely consider Brohm but with the emergence of Troy Smith and the fact that they still like Kyle Boller, I can see them holding off to maybe the second round before taking a QB. Chad Henne could be there in the second for them. I think that if Ryan falls to them, then they would definitely take him.

9. Dolphins--Ryan Clady, OT Surprise, surprise. There's something about the Dolphins picking at #9 and making surprise selections. The Dolphins really need to upgrade their offensive line and Clady makes sense. He's a massive tackle who moves surprisingly well for a man his size. He has great feet and would be a nice building block for the Parcells regime. I know some will be surprised that the Dolphins did not take Dorsey here, which would have been a coup to grab the guy they could have taken at #1. But I still do not believe that Dorsey to Miami makes much sense as he's a better fit for a 4-3 defense and the 3-tech position. He is not a NT and would lose some of his effectiveness in a 3-4 as a DE.

10. Chiefs--Glenn Dorsey, DT The Chiefs lose out on the opportunity to select Clady here and totally rebuild their offensive line, but end up getting a guy who may be the top prospect in the entire draft. He is on my board along with Sedrick Ellis. They are tied right now. Anyway, Saints fans will be p'ed off if Dorsey falls to 10 and we have traded up to get Ellis. Sometimes, that's how the cookie crumbles. The draft is full of a lot of drama and storylines. Dorsey falling to 10 is not likely, but with teams trading up and down to get the prospect they covet, it could very well happen. I would love for the Saints to stay put at #10 and take Dorsey or Ellis but they cannot guarantee he'll be there so the move by the Saints, given this scenario, would be right even if it gets criticized. Dorsey will give the Chiefs a presence up front and will have two solid DTs in Dorsey and last year's pick Tank Tyler. They will still have to address the offensive line, cornerback, and, perhaps, even QB position. Brohm might get consideration here for that very reason but Dorsey would be too good to pass up here.

Okay, rip away. Remember, this is not a mock as much as it is conjecture.
 

geauxboy

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I'm not much on mocks or anything, but strictly from a Saints stance, this DOES seem like a very good possiblility. I do wonder about the move to RT for Brown though. Will he actually do it?

I don't mind Ellis over Dorsey, especially because of the coach/player relationship.

Even though I think most of your mock is good, I do have to wonder why a WR for Miami? I know they are depleted at the position, but you're more depleted at the position that gets the WR the ball. The Barber rumor seems more realistic IMO.
 

joel morgan

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If Dorsey goes 10 , then the Chiefs get the steal of the century
 

CitySaint

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Wow you see Dorsey dropping all the way to 10? The bengals offering the farm almost to get the top pick. That makes for one interesting day in the draft. The Saints offer seems a little low for the Chiefs to reasonably accept too.
 

Scott B

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Glenn Dorsey will not fall to 10 unless he gets caught smoking crack
 

Slaw

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this would be an ideal scenario for the saints.

Col3sl4w's projected defense for 2008:

DE Will Smith
DT Sedrick Ellis
DT Hollis Thomas
DE Charles Grant
OLB 2nd Round Draft Pick (Highsmith?)
MLB Jonathan Vilma
OLB Scott Fujita
CB Best Possible FA (Asomuagh?)
FS Kevin Kaesviharn
SS Roman Harper
CB Mike Mckenzie
 

DeuceMVP

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I'm sorry to be so blunt, but there's no way Glenn Dorsey will fall to 10 unless he has a major freak injury or just some extraordinary unforeseen situation. There's just no way he falls to 10 other than that.
 

john markins

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If this scenario plays out, I would rather stay at 10, draft dorsey, and keep my picks and starting right tackle.
 
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REALCHRISM

REALCHRISM

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Spam, I am not about go through all the threads on here and NFL Draft Countdown to find it. But I started stating a while ago--may not be a full month--it was sometime in late December/early January that two prospects that I liked and thought were intriguing were McKelvin and Rodgers-Cromartie. Of course, I was hoping that Malcolm Jenkins would be in the draft, as I thought he was the absolute best cornerback prospect and still believe he would be if he entered. I have said that I thought Mike Jenkins was solid, but needs to improve his tackling and toughness. I have also said that I am not as high on Talib. While he's a decent looking prospect, I think he lacks the sort of speed needed to be an elite prospect.
 

longtime lurker

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If the Saints end up with Ellis.....good gracious it's allmost too much for me to even consider. I like reading all the different scenarios that posters like you REALCHRISM, and others have come up with. I believe that we will see all kinds of wheeling and dealing on draft day.

Ellis very well could be the top player taken, but I guess it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he could drop....but my reason wont let me believe that!

Cromartie, IMHO, is indeed the big "what if" in this years draft. I have him allready as a top 20 pick. My guess is a good showing at the combine pushes him even further...and I have no problem with DRC in the Black & Gold next season. He looks to be every bit as real a player as his cousin, I've read that he was a pretty good punt returner in College too. So DRC could fill two holes for the Saints. Neon Deion Sanders is saying this guy is legit, & I respect Primetime's opinion.

I beg everyone not to forget about Curtis Lofton...he makes game changing plays on defense & how many years as it been since the Saints have had a game changer on Defense?!? He may well move into the first round too.

I say carry on to everyone with your well thought out and creative mock drafts...I love reading them! Nice work Chris!

:beerchug:
 
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REALCHRISM

REALCHRISM

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I'm sorry to be so blunt, but there's no way Glenn Dorsey will fall to 10 unless he has a major freak injury or just some extraordinary unforeseen situation. There's just no way he falls to 10 other than that.

I respect your opinion. I stated in my initial thread that it is all conjecture on my part anyway. It's difficult to believe that you will have as many trades in the top 10 as I project here. One of the things that teams hate to do is give up the house to get one player. But given that the talent pool is about even once you get passed the first 6 to 10 top prospects in this draft, you could see teams trying to make a move to get into the top 10 and grab a guy they feel would put them over.

I will say this to the point you made about Dorsey that you can never said never. It's difficult for me to believe that Dorsey will fall to #10. However, it would not surprise me. Little ever does. Each year, someone falls. I remember the year that Derrick Johnson was in the draft and everyone kept saying that there was no way he would fall out of the top 10 and definitely not be there when the Saints selected. I continued to say that he would go somewhere between #12 and #16, and that I could definitely see him there at #16. He was taken #15, only after the Saints moved up and took Brown, which forced the Panthers to take Thomas Davis who the Chiefs were said to have been targeting. I am not saying that my word is law. I have been wrong on many occasions. But being the skeptic that I am, I find it troubling when people say that there's "no way" for a player to fall. There was no way that Donte Stallworth would fall and he did. There was no way that Tommie Harris would fall and he did. There was no way that Edgerrin James would be taken before Ricky Willams and he was. It happens. And the mere fact that there are some individuals out there who believe that Sedrick Ellis has moved ahead of Dorsey tells you that scouts may be reconsidering Dorsey as the top prospect in this draft. There are also those who believe that teams will be wary of investing top 5 money into Dorsey if they feel that his health is concern. There are also some who feel that Dorsey was just nost as explosive as he was before the injury even in the BCS championship game. I STILL believe that Dorsey, along with Ellis, is the top defensive prospect in the entire draft. I also like the fact that he's a leader and a high character guy. I do not see him falling to #10 but if he does fall some, I won't be shocked one bit.
 

Archie_4_HOF

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No way we will see three trades in the top five picks of the draft. I also have to agree with the fact that Dorsey will not fall that far unless he dies.
 
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REALCHRISM

REALCHRISM

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If this scenario plays out, I would rather stay at 10, draft dorsey, and keep my picks and starting right tackle.

If this scenario played out this way up until pick 5, there would still be no way for the Saints to gaurantee that Dorsey would be there at #10. Thus, making a move would make sense for the Saints even if the move proves to be a show of impatience in hindsight for the team.

CitySaint, you are probably right in your suggestion that the offer to the Chiefs on the part of the Saints might not be enough.

crogers, it's hard for me to see that many trades happening as well. Again, it's just conjecture for the mere purpose of discussing what we might at draft time and also what players each team might be leaning toward taking. I try to prevent different scenarios to show the different things that could happen. Now, this is not the same as Mel Kiper, Jr. having 50 drafts with different top ten results. The players in my scenario usually remain the same but I try to show how a player might slide or go higher than expected based upon one or two moves or surprise picks.

longtime lurker, you're right. Lofton is a beast and a guy who plays snap-to-whistle. He's a tremendous prospect and a guy to consider should we trade down to the late first or in the early second.

Scott B, it may not be crack but concern over his injuries that could cause him to fall. Nothing is etched in stone either way.
 

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