REALCHRISM
Super Forum Fanatic
- Joined
- Sep 6, 1997
- Messages
- 9,298
- Reaction score
- 12
- Age
- 46
Offline
I have been working hard trying to complete my evaluations of each team and player and, subsequently, put together a mock draft. Today, I decided to look exclusively at the top 10 and project some of the trades we might see occur happen on draft day. Of course, there is no way that anyone can say for certain what will happen on draft day. But I think it is possible that you might see a lot of jockeying for position by teams who are trying to secure an elite prospect in this draft. This draft has about 6 players that carry, in my opinion, an elite grade. They are Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston, Chris Long, and Jake Long. There are a few other plays who are super blue chip prospects such as Keith Rivers, Leodis McKelvin, Ryan Clady and, Matt Ryan, amongst a few others. Some of the RBs also factor into that group like Jonathan Stewart, Rashad Mendenhall, and Felix Jones. One of the more intriguing prospects in the entire draft is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. I said it a month ago and I stand by it, this guy has superb skills and a lot of talent. I think if he's coming out of a big-name school, there's no question that he is a top 15 pick. I think his play at the senior bowl has moved him up, although I am going to stop short of saying that he has solidified a first round grade. I definitely think he has solidified a second round grade. With a strong showing at the combine, he could catapult into the middle of the first round. That remains to be seen. I am on the borderline with Kenny Phillips. I think he's a terrific player and the best safety in this draft. I think he also falls into the category of being a blue chip prospect even though I have heard that he has fallen on some boards. I think once he goes out and runs at the combine and personal day, he will move back up. I am not ready, however, to call him an elite prospect. I think he's very good and will make an impact. But to call him elite at this stage would be a bit reaching. I think what teams are going to find in this draft is that there isn't much that separates a player in the first round from a player taken in the second round. This draft is not top heavy in terms of elite talent but has a solid number of prospects that carry nice grades. You will be able to get a solid player in the third, fourth and even fifth round and it'll be important for teams NOT to get rid of all their respective draft choices by trading up.
The following is an example, to me, of what we could see in terms of trading on draft day involving the top 10 picks.
***Cinncinatti trades Chad Johnson, their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick, and their fourth round pick to the Dolphins for their 1st pick and third round pick.***
1. Bengals--Vernon Gholston, LB/DE I truly believe that Gholston will have superior workout numbers that could catapult him to the top of the draft board. He may even be a consideration for Miami if they choose to stay put at #1. Gholston is solid off the edge and plays very fast. If he can run in the 4.5 or, even better, sub 4.5 range, he will likely move up and become the top prospect on a lot of draft boards. Teams love players with the ability to rush the passer and Gholston brings that to the table. I could see the Bengals making the move if the rumors of them moving to a 3-4 defense are true. With David Pollack possibly making a comeback, this would give them two solid rushers off the end. Mike Zimmer is the new DC and loves the 3-4 defense, so this a great possibility for them to make the move.
2. Rams--Jake Long, OT Orlando Pace is 32 and has missed a number of games over the last three seasons with injuries. The Rams' offense looked pedestrian at times last year and clearly suffered from not having solid play from its offensive line. Last year, Joe Thomas was taken 3rd by Cleveland and had a huge impact on the Browns offensive production. I think the Rams will flirt with the idea of taking Chris Long and will consider Dorsey and Ellis because of the talents that they each bring to the table, but in the end will choose a guy who can help open holes and protect the investment they have made in Marc Bulger.
***Dallas trades the Marion Barber, the #22 and #29 pick to the Raiders for the #3 pick.***
3. Cowboys--Darren McFadden, RB The Cowboys are looking to move up to grab McFadden. The speculation is that Miami will be the target but I cannot see Jerry Jones and Bill Parcells brokering a deal. In addition, I think that with the expected return of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins might not be interested in Barber despite his being coached by Parcells. This trade would make sense for the Raiders who have a RB in Fargas that is an URFA and two other RBs in Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes, who both are not expected back. The Raiders have a lot of needs at DE, DT, WR, and OL and this can give them the opportunity to address those needs while adding a top 10 RB. Pat Sims, Chris Williams, Limas Sweed, Phillip Merling and Early Doucet are some of the guys who could be available in the late first and early second for them.
4. Falcons--Matt Ryan, QB I know that with the choice of Smith as HC, there will be some who think that the Falcons will go defense. And with Ellis and Dorsey on the board, why not? But I just believe that the Falcons are really going to try to get past the Michael Vick era and start anew. And what better way to do that than by drafting a QB that they can build the franchise around. Ryan has uncanny intangibles and a drive to win. While I do not see him as a definitive elite prospect, he's a solid blue chip talent and a guy who has the talent to be successful and win if you surround him with the right guys.
***Saints trade Jon Stinchcomb, OT, and their 4th round draft choice to the Chiefs in exchange for the 5th pick overall from the Chiefs.***
5. SAINTS--SEDRICK ELLIS, DT I know this will come as a shock to many, particularly with Glenn Dorsey on the board. I like Dorsey a lot and could very well see this pick being Dorsey. But given that Orgeron has some experience with Ellis, I could see Ellis getting the pick. You really can't go wrong either way. I like the leverage that Ellis plays with and the way he engages and, subsequently, disengages from offensive lineman. He uses his hands really well and has a non-stop motor. He moves the line of scrimmage and would do wonders for our defensive pressure up front. I think the trade would make sense for the Chiefs and Saints. Stinchcomb would give them the ability to address issues on their offensive line and, at the same time, still have a chance to draft another top flight player in the top 10. I think the trade makes sense for New Orleans, where there have been some rumors that Jammal Brown could be moved back to RT with Bushrod assuming the LT position. Even if Brown stays at LT, Bushrod and Strief could easily replace Stinchcomb. I think this trade would be smarter for the Saints than giving up too many early draft choices.
6. Jets--Chris Long, DE Long fits into the 3-4 system that the Jets run. He has a good motor and plays with a lot of intensity. He'll be a key piece in helping the Jets to continue to improve their defense.
7. Patriots--Leodis McKelvin, CB Should the Patriots lose Asante Samuel, they will be very weak at the CB position. Of course, they could look to FA to fill the void left by Samuel's departure. If not, they will certainly have to look to fill the hole in the draft. Right now, McKelvin is my highest rated CB and would be an excellent pick for the Patriots. He is very fluid, plays the ball really well in the air and has solid recovery speed. The pick makes sense from a need standpoint, HOWEVER, don't rule out the Patriots going with something totally out of the blue. Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers are two guys who might get consideration as well as Mike Jenkins.
8. Ravens--Mike Jenkins, CB The Ravens may look to trade down, but if they stay put, I can see Jenkins being the pick. They will like to upgrade their secondary and Jenkins is a very solid prospect. The Ravens will likely consider Brohm but with the emergence of Troy Smith and the fact that they still like Kyle Boller, I can see them holding off to maybe the second round before taking a QB. Chad Henne could be there in the second for them. I think that if Ryan falls to them, then they would definitely take him.
9. Dolphins--Ryan Clady, OT Surprise, surprise. There's something about the Dolphins picking at #9 and making surprise selections. The Dolphins really need to upgrade their offensive line and Clady makes sense. He's a massive tackle who moves surprisingly well for a man his size. He has great feet and would be a nice building block for the Parcells regime. I know some will be surprised that the Dolphins did not take Dorsey here, which would have been a coup to grab the guy they could have taken at #1. But I still do not believe that Dorsey to Miami makes much sense as he's a better fit for a 4-3 defense and the 3-tech position. He is not a NT and would lose some of his effectiveness in a 3-4 as a DE.
10. Chiefs--Glenn Dorsey, DT The Chiefs lose out on the opportunity to select Clady here and totally rebuild their offensive line, but end up getting a guy who may be the top prospect in the entire draft. He is on my board along with Sedrick Ellis. They are tied right now. Anyway, Saints fans will be p'ed off if Dorsey falls to 10 and we have traded up to get Ellis. Sometimes, that's how the cookie crumbles. The draft is full of a lot of drama and storylines. Dorsey falling to 10 is not likely, but with teams trading up and down to get the prospect they covet, it could very well happen. I would love for the Saints to stay put at #10 and take Dorsey or Ellis but they cannot guarantee he'll be there so the move by the Saints, given this scenario, would be right even if it gets criticized. Dorsey will give the Chiefs a presence up front and will have two solid DTs in Dorsey and last year's pick Tank Tyler. They will still have to address the offensive line, cornerback, and, perhaps, even QB position. Brohm might get consideration here for that very reason but Dorsey would be too good to pass up here.
Okay, rip away. Remember, this is not a mock as much as it is conjecture.
The following is an example, to me, of what we could see in terms of trading on draft day involving the top 10 picks.
***Cinncinatti trades Chad Johnson, their 1st round pick, their 2nd round pick, and their fourth round pick to the Dolphins for their 1st pick and third round pick.***
1. Bengals--Vernon Gholston, LB/DE I truly believe that Gholston will have superior workout numbers that could catapult him to the top of the draft board. He may even be a consideration for Miami if they choose to stay put at #1. Gholston is solid off the edge and plays very fast. If he can run in the 4.5 or, even better, sub 4.5 range, he will likely move up and become the top prospect on a lot of draft boards. Teams love players with the ability to rush the passer and Gholston brings that to the table. I could see the Bengals making the move if the rumors of them moving to a 3-4 defense are true. With David Pollack possibly making a comeback, this would give them two solid rushers off the end. Mike Zimmer is the new DC and loves the 3-4 defense, so this a great possibility for them to make the move.
2. Rams--Jake Long, OT Orlando Pace is 32 and has missed a number of games over the last three seasons with injuries. The Rams' offense looked pedestrian at times last year and clearly suffered from not having solid play from its offensive line. Last year, Joe Thomas was taken 3rd by Cleveland and had a huge impact on the Browns offensive production. I think the Rams will flirt with the idea of taking Chris Long and will consider Dorsey and Ellis because of the talents that they each bring to the table, but in the end will choose a guy who can help open holes and protect the investment they have made in Marc Bulger.
***Dallas trades the Marion Barber, the #22 and #29 pick to the Raiders for the #3 pick.***
3. Cowboys--Darren McFadden, RB The Cowboys are looking to move up to grab McFadden. The speculation is that Miami will be the target but I cannot see Jerry Jones and Bill Parcells brokering a deal. In addition, I think that with the expected return of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins might not be interested in Barber despite his being coached by Parcells. This trade would make sense for the Raiders who have a RB in Fargas that is an URFA and two other RBs in Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes, who both are not expected back. The Raiders have a lot of needs at DE, DT, WR, and OL and this can give them the opportunity to address those needs while adding a top 10 RB. Pat Sims, Chris Williams, Limas Sweed, Phillip Merling and Early Doucet are some of the guys who could be available in the late first and early second for them.
4. Falcons--Matt Ryan, QB I know that with the choice of Smith as HC, there will be some who think that the Falcons will go defense. And with Ellis and Dorsey on the board, why not? But I just believe that the Falcons are really going to try to get past the Michael Vick era and start anew. And what better way to do that than by drafting a QB that they can build the franchise around. Ryan has uncanny intangibles and a drive to win. While I do not see him as a definitive elite prospect, he's a solid blue chip talent and a guy who has the talent to be successful and win if you surround him with the right guys.
***Saints trade Jon Stinchcomb, OT, and their 4th round draft choice to the Chiefs in exchange for the 5th pick overall from the Chiefs.***
5. SAINTS--SEDRICK ELLIS, DT I know this will come as a shock to many, particularly with Glenn Dorsey on the board. I like Dorsey a lot and could very well see this pick being Dorsey. But given that Orgeron has some experience with Ellis, I could see Ellis getting the pick. You really can't go wrong either way. I like the leverage that Ellis plays with and the way he engages and, subsequently, disengages from offensive lineman. He uses his hands really well and has a non-stop motor. He moves the line of scrimmage and would do wonders for our defensive pressure up front. I think the trade would make sense for the Chiefs and Saints. Stinchcomb would give them the ability to address issues on their offensive line and, at the same time, still have a chance to draft another top flight player in the top 10. I think the trade makes sense for New Orleans, where there have been some rumors that Jammal Brown could be moved back to RT with Bushrod assuming the LT position. Even if Brown stays at LT, Bushrod and Strief could easily replace Stinchcomb. I think this trade would be smarter for the Saints than giving up too many early draft choices.
6. Jets--Chris Long, DE Long fits into the 3-4 system that the Jets run. He has a good motor and plays with a lot of intensity. He'll be a key piece in helping the Jets to continue to improve their defense.
7. Patriots--Leodis McKelvin, CB Should the Patriots lose Asante Samuel, they will be very weak at the CB position. Of course, they could look to FA to fill the void left by Samuel's departure. If not, they will certainly have to look to fill the hole in the draft. Right now, McKelvin is my highest rated CB and would be an excellent pick for the Patriots. He is very fluid, plays the ball really well in the air and has solid recovery speed. The pick makes sense from a need standpoint, HOWEVER, don't rule out the Patriots going with something totally out of the blue. Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers are two guys who might get consideration as well as Mike Jenkins.
8. Ravens--Mike Jenkins, CB The Ravens may look to trade down, but if they stay put, I can see Jenkins being the pick. They will like to upgrade their secondary and Jenkins is a very solid prospect. The Ravens will likely consider Brohm but with the emergence of Troy Smith and the fact that they still like Kyle Boller, I can see them holding off to maybe the second round before taking a QB. Chad Henne could be there in the second for them. I think that if Ryan falls to them, then they would definitely take him.
9. Dolphins--Ryan Clady, OT Surprise, surprise. There's something about the Dolphins picking at #9 and making surprise selections. The Dolphins really need to upgrade their offensive line and Clady makes sense. He's a massive tackle who moves surprisingly well for a man his size. He has great feet and would be a nice building block for the Parcells regime. I know some will be surprised that the Dolphins did not take Dorsey here, which would have been a coup to grab the guy they could have taken at #1. But I still do not believe that Dorsey to Miami makes much sense as he's a better fit for a 4-3 defense and the 3-tech position. He is not a NT and would lose some of his effectiveness in a 3-4 as a DE.
10. Chiefs--Glenn Dorsey, DT The Chiefs lose out on the opportunity to select Clady here and totally rebuild their offensive line, but end up getting a guy who may be the top prospect in the entire draft. He is on my board along with Sedrick Ellis. They are tied right now. Anyway, Saints fans will be p'ed off if Dorsey falls to 10 and we have traded up to get Ellis. Sometimes, that's how the cookie crumbles. The draft is full of a lot of drama and storylines. Dorsey falling to 10 is not likely, but with teams trading up and down to get the prospect they covet, it could very well happen. I would love for the Saints to stay put at #10 and take Dorsey or Ellis but they cannot guarantee he'll be there so the move by the Saints, given this scenario, would be right even if it gets criticized. Dorsey will give the Chiefs a presence up front and will have two solid DTs in Dorsey and last year's pick Tank Tyler. They will still have to address the offensive line, cornerback, and, perhaps, even QB position. Brohm might get consideration here for that very reason but Dorsey would be too good to pass up here.
Okay, rip away. Remember, this is not a mock as much as it is conjecture.