A new way to predict where top prospects will end up (1 Viewer)

GoldRush26

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Interesting read.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/andy_staples/01/23/recruiting.economics/?eref=mostpop

Jeannette, Pa., quarterback Terrelle Pryor will sign with Ohio State, Foley, Ala., receiver Julio Jones will choose Alabama and Ventura, Calif., running back Darrell Scott will pick Texas. This isn't my opinion, nor do I have any inside information.

It's economics.

Using equations that contain more Greek letters than your favorite school's fraternity row, three economists have devised a way to predict the college choices of top football prospects. In two recruiting seasons (2005 and 2007), the College Football Recruiting Prediction model developed by Mike DuMond, Allen Lynch and Jennifer Platania has correctly predicted the college choice of the members of the Rivals 100 with 72.5 percent accuracy.
 

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It's definitely an interesting article and concept, but in reading through the rough mechanics of the equation it really isn't that much different than one of us taking that info and simply processing it in our head. I think if given the information that the program was given, this board could have also gotten that type of percentage (once we threw out all the LSU homer selections :hihi:).
 

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It's definitely an interesting article and concept, but in reading through the rough mechanics of the equation it really isn't that much different than one of us taking that info and simply processing it in our head.

No ****. Basically all the "formula" predicts is that

The biggest, winningest BCS programs in any area will dominate their regional recruitment.

Really? Seriously? You're really suggesting USC gets its pick of South California, LSU gets it's pick of Louisiana, Texas it's pick of Texas, Florida its pick of Florida, etc? Honestly?

How earth shattering.

If they want to really break ground they need to find a way to predict not the top 100 or even top 250, which will without doubt be dominated by the winning BCS programs, but rather the middle 1,000 or so who tend to disperse far more wildly for far more varying reasons.
 
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71% is a huge number and I don't think this board could have gotten it from information that didn't include insider information.
 
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GoldRush26

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71% is a huge number and I don't think this board could have gotten it from information that didn't include insider information.


It is pretty remarkable to me.


"So what do recruits want? According to the model, they usually will pick the BCS-conference school nearest their hometown that has the biggest on-campus stadium and won the most games last season. Not the past five seasons, mind you."


Their formula makes sense when I think of why a Patrick Johnson would choose LSU over Florida, or why a DeAndre Brown would (presumably) choose LSU over UM.

I would actually like to see their findings first hand though.
 
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peytonknows

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71% is a huge number and I don't think this board could have gotten it from information that didn't include insider information.


Well I don't think it's really that hard. That's pretty much 3 of 4 and without "indider info" they could still look at the schools they are interested in and it's not very hard. Just following college football and what program has a chance for them to play early for example might make it pretty easy. Like Scott for example, now that Charles is leaving you could say there is a great chance he could do it.

I'm not sure it's as hard as it seems.
 
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GoldRush26

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Well I don't think it's really that hard. That's pretty much 3 of 4 and without "indider info" they could still look at the schools they are interested in and it's not very hard. Just following college football and what program has a chance for them to play early for example might make it pretty easy. Like Scott for example, now that Charles is leaving you could say there is a great chance he could do it.

I'm not sure it's as hard as it seems.


Well if you could pick the eventual landing spots of 3 out of every 4 top recruits, I'm sure someone would be willing to pay for your services.

I don't know if you read the article, but their formula says that early playing time for these recruits actually doesn't factor into their decision all that much.
 

peytonknows

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Well if you could pick the eventual landing spots of 3 out of every 4 top recruits, I'm sure someone would be willing to pay for your services.

I don't know if you read the article, but their formula says that early playing time for these recruits actually doesn't factor into their decision all that much.


Which is "their" formula and not how I would decide. It plays a fairly large role in the top prospects around the country. You think people are beating down the door to stand behind Bradford, Mallet (09), Perrilloux etc. You really think that Darrell Scott wants to come to LSU and compete with a list of 5 RB's. If you think that it doesn't play a factor I would suggest following football recruiting more closely.:9:
 
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GoldRush26

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Which is "their" formula and not how I would decide. It plays a fairly large role in the top prospects around the country. You think people are beating down the door to stand behind Bradford, Mallet (09), Perrilloux etc. You really think that Darrell Scott wants to come to LSU and compete with a list of 5 RB's. If you think that it doesn't play a factor I would suggest following football recruiting more closely.:9:


What are you talking about? You're trying to put words into my mouth? I never said that it doesn't play a factor in recruiting. I'm just quoting the article. Like I said before, 71% accuracy is impressive and I really don't think all of the "recruiting experts" here could come close to that, especially with no inside information.

Like I said if anyone could match their results they would be making money off of it and have a story written about them in Sports Illustrated. Just like people that say they can pick NFL games. If they could they would be in Vegas.
 

peytonknows

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What are you talking about? You're trying to put words into my mouth? I never said that it doesn't play a factor in recruiting. I'm just quoting the article. Like I said before, 71% accuracy is impressive and I really don't think all of the "recruiting experts" here could come close to that, especially with no inside information.

Like I said if anyone could match their results they would be making money off of it and have a story written about them in Sports Illustrated. Just like people that say they can pick NFL games. If they could they would be in Vegas.


I'm telling you that their "formula" is garbage and the concept is so stupid. By inside information what does it consist of? You can read articles all day long of recruits saying "I would love to go to __________". They tell you everything you need to know and don't tell me they don't look at that.

How much $$$$$ are you willing to put up, give me a list of kids (top 100 at that, since it is soooo hard) and I could probably almost guarantee around 70 percent. Of course I'm not sure it can be done this late as a lot of them are already committed. The comparison of picking football games is a WHIFF tmSaintRub... you are talking about a 50% probability which my grandma could probably do after never watching football.
 
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GoldRush26

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I'm telling you that their "formula" is garbage and the concept is so stupid. By inside information what does it consist of? You can read articles all day long of recruits saying "I would love to go to __________". They tell you everything you need to know and don't tell me they don't look at that.

How much $$$$$ are you willing to put up, give me a list of kids (top 100 at that, since it is soooo hard) and I could probably almost guarantee around 70 percent. Of course I'm not sure it can be done this late as a lot of them are already committed. The comparison of picking football games is a WHIFF tmSaintRub... you are talking about a 50% probability which my grandma could probably do after never watching football.


Well since you're such a good expert, maybe you should open one of these recruiting websites like Scout.com has. Trust me dude if you can nail 71% accuracy consistently
a lot of college football fanatics would pay you handsomely for your subscription service,

Dude I wouldn't even have to get the top 100. I could give you the remaining uncommited high school football players and you wouldn't get 71%.
 

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I could give you the remaining uncommited high school football players and you wouldn't get 71%.


That article says nothing about "commited" versus "uncommited". It just predicts where they end up.

Since they don't reveal their picks until the 25th of January, you can probably take all of the recruits that commited at their words that they will go where they pledged they would and, even though you would tank on Joe McKnight for instance, you can probably get close to 70% accuracy on that alone.

If they were making these superaccurate predictions in early December, that would be an eye opener. But a week before signing day? Not so much.

Peytonknows was right. I would wager that, if this board collectively made predictions on January 24th (a day before those economists make theirs), the collective wisdom would get within 5 percentage points of theirs...and would probably even edge them out.
 
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atceagle

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It is pretty remarkable to me.


"So what do recruits want? According to the model, they usually will pick the BCS-conference school nearest their hometown that has the biggest on-campus stadium and won the most games last season. Not the past five seasons, mind you."


Their formula makes sense when I think of why a Patrick Johnson would choose LSU over Florida, or why a DeAndre Brown would (presumably) choose LSU over UM.

I would actually like to see their findings first hand though.


UM is not even in the running for DeAndre Brown anymore.
 

peytonknows

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That article says nothing about "commited" versus "uncommited". It just predicts where they end up.

Since they don't reveal their picks until the 25th of January, you can probably take all of the recruits that commited at their words that they will go where they pledged they would and, even though you would tank on Joe McKnight for instance, you can probably get close to 70% accuracy on that alone.

If they were making these superaccurate predictions in early December, that would be an eye opener. But a week before signing day? Not so much.

Peytonknows was right. I would wager that, if this board collectively made predictions on January 24th (a day before those economists make theirs), the collective wisdom would get within 5 percentage points of theirs...and would probably even edge them out.


Thanks, that's basically what I was trying to get across.:9:
 
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It would be interesting to see how close they are on the players who as of yet are not committed.
 

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