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Camp Body
- Joined
- Sep 9, 1997
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1. Chiefs--Luke Joeckel, OT
2. Jaguars--Bjoern Werner, DE
3. Raiders--Damontre Moore, DE
4. Eagles--Geno Smith, QB
The first four picks are logical, maybe with Chiefs and Eagles swapping players.
5. Lions--Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Ansah is moving up and there was at least one team picking in the top 10 that stated anonymously that they see him as a top 10 pick. Doesn't mean he'll definitely get picked here but what we know is that the Lions run a traditional 4-3 scheme. With Werner and Moore off the board, they could opt for a CB like Dee Milliner here or take Ansah at DE. Jones, Jordan, and Mingo do not really fit the need at DE, though Jordan and Mingo might be more logical if they chose to take one of them anyway.
6. Rams (from Browns)--Chance Womack, OG
I am projecting a trade here. First, if the Browns stay put, I think they will take one of the OLBs with Mingo and Jones being the most likely two to be considered. But the Rams are desperate for some help on their interior line. They also have the ammunition to move up to grab Womack, who I think will be off the board by pick #10. The Cardinals, Jets, and Titans are all potential landing spots for him.
7. Cardinals--Eric Fisher, OT
8. Bills--Mike Glennon, QB
The Cardinals are likely to consider three players: Womack, Fisher, and Glennon. Ok, maybe Barkley but I do not see it. The Bills could take a QB as their owner suggested they would. Last year, he said they would take a CB and they did. If not, I can see them in the market for a MLB like Alec Ogletree. They might also be a candidate to trade down and I would not rule out Womack with Levitre a free agent.
9. Jets--Jonathan Cooper, OG
10. Titans--Dee Milliner, CB
Ok, this is where it gets tricky. Most projections I see have the Jets taking Mingo or Ansah. But the Jets beat writer continues to say that the team feels that it must address the offensive side of the ball first and that they will be in the market for help on the offensive line. Cooper is a 1b to Womack's 1a. The Jets are also prone to surprises and I would not be at all shocked to see them bypass a LB here. Even if they take one, that still leaves the other two on the board.
As for the Titans, their primary needs/target are said to be OL and CB. With Womack gone, Milliner makes a ton of sense here. If you take one glance at their starting CBs last season, you will quickly see why.
11. Chargers--Star Lotululei, DT
12. Dolphins--Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
13. Bucs--Jonathan Banks, CB
14. Panthers--Lane Johnson, OT
Like the top four picks, these picks are just logical. You maybe can swap the Chargers and Panthers' picks but it is hard for the Chargers to pass on Star who is a top 5 talent. He will replace the soon-to-be-departed Aubraya Franklin. With the Panthers, I can see them taking a DT like Jonathan Hankins or Jesse Williams here. But they also have needs at OT, which has been talked about in significant detail on their message boards. The Dolphins could be in line for help at WR, OL, and LB. I would not rule out any but Patterson is expected to blow the top off at the combine and move himself up into being a bonafide top 15 pick.
This now brings us to pick #15. We would be in a situation where Jones, Mingo, and Jordan are all on the board. What do we do? I know most people might say to either take Jones or trade down seeing as though all three are there. In the case of the latter, you have to have a WILLING trade partner and you also have to evaluate how far you can drop down without sacrificing the opportunity to draft one of the three. In the case of the former, Jones has been a spectacular and productive player at the collegiate-level, but there are some questions about his health, his athleticism/speed, and his preparation/commitment to being a great player. If he's the pick, do not get me wrong--I am not upset. I applaud it. But it would also not surprise me to see the Saints have Mingo and/or Jordan higher than him on their draft board.
So what to do? First, let's evaluate how far they might be able to trade back without losing any of the guys.
We know at pick #16, the Brown will be in the market for one of the LBs. Let's take away Mingo. At #17, the Steelers could also be in the market for a LB or a safety like Kenny Vaccaro. The Steelers might be most tempted to take Jarvis Jones since they tend to go for shorter OLBs. But I can see them holding off until the second round for a guy like Brandon Jenkins who profiles similar to the guys they have now. So let's say they take Vaccaro. At #18, the Cowboys have moved to a 4-3 and will either look at taking a 3-tech like Richardson/Floyd or OL help. At 19, the Giants can go in a number of directions, which might include a TE like Eifert/Ertz, a CB like Rhodes, or a LB like Ogletree. I also would not rule out a DE like Montgomery and Okafor For that reason, I have to also include Dion Jordan who might project to DE. Let's say they take Ogletree.
At #20, the Bears are likely to go with OL or LB. TE and CB might also become a factor depending on what's left. Let's say they take DJ Fluker. At #21, I think the Bengals take Okafor or Montgomery. At #22, the Rams would like to take Vaccaro if there. But if he's gone, then they might look at a WR, TE, or another S like Reid. No worries here. Minnesota is in the market for a WR or interior DL. Now, once we get to the Colts, we know that they run a 3-4 and could be looking for a stud OLB. Seattle runs a hybrid system and would not be afraid of taking a guy like Jordan, especially if someone like Richardson is gone. Green Bay has a 3-4 system as well. Though they have players in place, it is hard to pass on a top 10 talent.
So, potentially, if we were were to trade back, it would have to be a team selecting between pick #17-23 and that is cutting it VERY CLOSE. The Rams would probably like to jump ahead to assure themselves of Vaccaro, but that has two problems. First, if they move up for Womack, they are not likely to move up again. Second, even if they did, that would mean that the Browns would take say Mingo and the Steelers would take Jones leaving ONLY Jordan left for us and 5 teams picking before us at #23. Minnesota might come up but there is really no need. They can stay put and get a guy like Keenan Allen. Now, let's say they covet Richardson and do not want him to get taken by the Cowboys. They could trade with us or the Steelers. If it is with us, that might leave one or two of the guys on the board but might still be risky.So, in theory, we might only be able to move as far back as, say, the Bears but there would have to be some player on the board that would cause them to want to move up. Unless Jonathan Cooper or Lane Johnson is there, and they want to move ahead of Dallas to get him, then they are unlikely to do it. The best hope may be for Carolina to have taken Hankins and for Johnson to still be there. If so, we can get down to #20 and I am sure would still have a logical chance at landing whoever falls out of the three.
But if that's not the case, then we are probably more likely to stay put and take whoever it is out of the three we rank the highest. But it would be an interesting scenario that might bring a number of opportunities. The other thing I should mention is that you cannot control for teams behind these teams trading up to land one of these "falling" guys. So trading down is not always as ideal as it may appear.
I just thought I would share this scenario since I've been playing around with different things that "could" happen come draft day. I guess I should ask, what would you want the Saints to do at #15 if this happened. Would you take Jones, Jordan, Mingo or trade down hoping to land one?
2. Jaguars--Bjoern Werner, DE
3. Raiders--Damontre Moore, DE
4. Eagles--Geno Smith, QB
The first four picks are logical, maybe with Chiefs and Eagles swapping players.
5. Lions--Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Ansah is moving up and there was at least one team picking in the top 10 that stated anonymously that they see him as a top 10 pick. Doesn't mean he'll definitely get picked here but what we know is that the Lions run a traditional 4-3 scheme. With Werner and Moore off the board, they could opt for a CB like Dee Milliner here or take Ansah at DE. Jones, Jordan, and Mingo do not really fit the need at DE, though Jordan and Mingo might be more logical if they chose to take one of them anyway.
6. Rams (from Browns)--Chance Womack, OG
I am projecting a trade here. First, if the Browns stay put, I think they will take one of the OLBs with Mingo and Jones being the most likely two to be considered. But the Rams are desperate for some help on their interior line. They also have the ammunition to move up to grab Womack, who I think will be off the board by pick #10. The Cardinals, Jets, and Titans are all potential landing spots for him.
7. Cardinals--Eric Fisher, OT
8. Bills--Mike Glennon, QB
The Cardinals are likely to consider three players: Womack, Fisher, and Glennon. Ok, maybe Barkley but I do not see it. The Bills could take a QB as their owner suggested they would. Last year, he said they would take a CB and they did. If not, I can see them in the market for a MLB like Alec Ogletree. They might also be a candidate to trade down and I would not rule out Womack with Levitre a free agent.
9. Jets--Jonathan Cooper, OG
10. Titans--Dee Milliner, CB
Ok, this is where it gets tricky. Most projections I see have the Jets taking Mingo or Ansah. But the Jets beat writer continues to say that the team feels that it must address the offensive side of the ball first and that they will be in the market for help on the offensive line. Cooper is a 1b to Womack's 1a. The Jets are also prone to surprises and I would not be at all shocked to see them bypass a LB here. Even if they take one, that still leaves the other two on the board.
As for the Titans, their primary needs/target are said to be OL and CB. With Womack gone, Milliner makes a ton of sense here. If you take one glance at their starting CBs last season, you will quickly see why.
11. Chargers--Star Lotululei, DT
12. Dolphins--Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
13. Bucs--Jonathan Banks, CB
14. Panthers--Lane Johnson, OT
Like the top four picks, these picks are just logical. You maybe can swap the Chargers and Panthers' picks but it is hard for the Chargers to pass on Star who is a top 5 talent. He will replace the soon-to-be-departed Aubraya Franklin. With the Panthers, I can see them taking a DT like Jonathan Hankins or Jesse Williams here. But they also have needs at OT, which has been talked about in significant detail on their message boards. The Dolphins could be in line for help at WR, OL, and LB. I would not rule out any but Patterson is expected to blow the top off at the combine and move himself up into being a bonafide top 15 pick.
This now brings us to pick #15. We would be in a situation where Jones, Mingo, and Jordan are all on the board. What do we do? I know most people might say to either take Jones or trade down seeing as though all three are there. In the case of the latter, you have to have a WILLING trade partner and you also have to evaluate how far you can drop down without sacrificing the opportunity to draft one of the three. In the case of the former, Jones has been a spectacular and productive player at the collegiate-level, but there are some questions about his health, his athleticism/speed, and his preparation/commitment to being a great player. If he's the pick, do not get me wrong--I am not upset. I applaud it. But it would also not surprise me to see the Saints have Mingo and/or Jordan higher than him on their draft board.
So what to do? First, let's evaluate how far they might be able to trade back without losing any of the guys.
We know at pick #16, the Brown will be in the market for one of the LBs. Let's take away Mingo. At #17, the Steelers could also be in the market for a LB or a safety like Kenny Vaccaro. The Steelers might be most tempted to take Jarvis Jones since they tend to go for shorter OLBs. But I can see them holding off until the second round for a guy like Brandon Jenkins who profiles similar to the guys they have now. So let's say they take Vaccaro. At #18, the Cowboys have moved to a 4-3 and will either look at taking a 3-tech like Richardson/Floyd or OL help. At 19, the Giants can go in a number of directions, which might include a TE like Eifert/Ertz, a CB like Rhodes, or a LB like Ogletree. I also would not rule out a DE like Montgomery and Okafor For that reason, I have to also include Dion Jordan who might project to DE. Let's say they take Ogletree.
At #20, the Bears are likely to go with OL or LB. TE and CB might also become a factor depending on what's left. Let's say they take DJ Fluker. At #21, I think the Bengals take Okafor or Montgomery. At #22, the Rams would like to take Vaccaro if there. But if he's gone, then they might look at a WR, TE, or another S like Reid. No worries here. Minnesota is in the market for a WR or interior DL. Now, once we get to the Colts, we know that they run a 3-4 and could be looking for a stud OLB. Seattle runs a hybrid system and would not be afraid of taking a guy like Jordan, especially if someone like Richardson is gone. Green Bay has a 3-4 system as well. Though they have players in place, it is hard to pass on a top 10 talent.
So, potentially, if we were were to trade back, it would have to be a team selecting between pick #17-23 and that is cutting it VERY CLOSE. The Rams would probably like to jump ahead to assure themselves of Vaccaro, but that has two problems. First, if they move up for Womack, they are not likely to move up again. Second, even if they did, that would mean that the Browns would take say Mingo and the Steelers would take Jones leaving ONLY Jordan left for us and 5 teams picking before us at #23. Minnesota might come up but there is really no need. They can stay put and get a guy like Keenan Allen. Now, let's say they covet Richardson and do not want him to get taken by the Cowboys. They could trade with us or the Steelers. If it is with us, that might leave one or two of the guys on the board but might still be risky.So, in theory, we might only be able to move as far back as, say, the Bears but there would have to be some player on the board that would cause them to want to move up. Unless Jonathan Cooper or Lane Johnson is there, and they want to move ahead of Dallas to get him, then they are unlikely to do it. The best hope may be for Carolina to have taken Hankins and for Johnson to still be there. If so, we can get down to #20 and I am sure would still have a logical chance at landing whoever falls out of the three.
But if that's not the case, then we are probably more likely to stay put and take whoever it is out of the three we rank the highest. But it would be an interesting scenario that might bring a number of opportunities. The other thing I should mention is that you cannot control for teams behind these teams trading up to land one of these "falling" guys. So trading down is not always as ideal as it may appear.
I just thought I would share this scenario since I've been playing around with different things that "could" happen come draft day. I guess I should ask, what would you want the Saints to do at #15 if this happened. Would you take Jones, Jordan, Mingo or trade down hoping to land one?