Adam Thielen Contract (Should Michael Thomas be next?) (1 Viewer)

[J.T.]

Adam Thielen was entering the third year of a four year contract.
His new deal is worth $64 million with a max of $74 million, with $35 million guaranteed.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/12/adam-thielen-agrees-to-four-year-extension/

"Adam Thielen signed a 4 year, $64,000,000 contract with the Minnesota Vikings, including $35,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $16,000,000. In 2019, Thielen will earn a base salary of $5,850,000, a roster bonus of $100,000, a workout bonus of $50,000 and an incentive bonus of $1,100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $8,100,000. "

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/adam-thielen-13071/

How much is Michael Thomas worth and should the Saints try and extend him now?

Michael Thomas is entering the fourth year of his Rookie deal and is set to be an UFA after this season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/michael-thomas-18996/

 

[49erKiller]

Adam Thielen was entering the third year of a four year contract.
His new deal is worth $64 million with a max of $74 million, with $35 million guaranteed.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/12/adam-thielen-agrees-to-four-year-extension/

"Adam Thielen signed a 4 year, $64,000,000 contract with the Minnesota Vikings, including $35,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $16,000,000. In 2019, Thielen will earn a base salary of $5,850,000, a roster bonus of $100,000, a workout bonus of $50,000 and an incentive bonus of $1,100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $8,100,000. "

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/adam-thielen-13071/

How much is Michael Thomas worth and should the Saints try and extend him now?

Michael Thomas is entering the fourth year of his Rookie deal and is set to be an UFA after this season.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/michael-thomas-18996/

Honestly, I don't see Michael Thomas getting anything less than $20 million per year, and if I am being really honest with myself, whoever signs him will be looking at $25+ million per year.

 

[Saints fan in VA]

He's not going to be a Colston, it will be about being paid.

 

[Bartyboy]

Yea it could only be an extension. Not enough to pay that man in 2019.
The big money can't start until 2020.
But if they can do that sure.

 

[dutar76]

You don't let a talent like MT leave your team. If he's willing to extend now, you do it and don't blink an eye. If not, then we'd better get ready to have some BIG competition for his services once he hits the open market. There won't be a home-team discount with CantGuardMike

 

[J.T.]

Honestly, I don't see Michael Thomas getting anything less than $20 million per year, and if I am being really honest with myself, whoever signs him will be looking at $25+ million per year.

The "average" contract value currently for the ten highest-paid wide receivers:

OBJ $18 million
Antonio Brown $16.7 million
Mike Evans $16.5 million
DeAndre Hopkins $16.2 million
Brandin Cooks $16.2 million
Sammy Watkins $16 million
Adam Thielen $16 million
Jarvis Landry $15.1 million
A.J. Green $15 million
Davante Adams $14.5 million

The franchise tag for 2019 for a WR was $16,787,000. (The franchise tag for WR in 2018 was $15,982,000.) Just adding the increase from 2018 to 2019 you can "project" that the 2020 franchise tag for a WR will be, at the most, around $17.6 million. It may be less than this amount if no other big name WR'ers sign big contracts in the next 11 months.

The second year of a franchise tag is 120% of the previous year's salary.

Even if you assume $17.6 million and then the 120% of the second tag, that puts the guaranteed money floor at about $38.7 million. (Mike Florio has a great take on how teams should look at the "starting" position when determining guaranteed money to franchise tag types of players when they start negotiating a long term deal. He says, take the Projected or actual Franchise Tag value, add in the 120% increase for the next year and use that as the starting position.)

Here are some of the Guaranteed at Signing numbers of the most recent contract extensions:
Thielen $35 million (Base compensation and workout bonuses in out years of about $16.0 million per year.)
Antonio Brown $30 million (Base compensation and workout bonuses in out years of about $17.3 million per year.)
OBJ $41 million (Base compensation and workout bonuses in out years of about $15 million per year.)

I cannot see the Saints going much past the projected Franchise Tag of 2020 and 2021 for a WR, in guaranteed money at signing which, will be about $38.7 million. Round this up to $40 million, then figure a five-year contract with out-year yearly compensation of between $18-19 million per year. That would be a five-year $95 million contract. That would be the absolute top end of a 2020 WR five-year contract. Average compensation of $19.1 million. I really don't think the Saints or anyone else would pay over $20 million per year for a WR in 2020 on a five-year deal. The absolute ceiling would be $20 million and I just don't think it will get there. If the Saints did the deal this year, they could probably get him for a five-year extension for $40 million guaranteed and average compensation in years 3-5 of the contract of about $16-17 million. Let's say $16.5 million per year $89,500,000 for a five-year deal done this year would be top end.

 

[cant]

Love CantGuardMike. Saints front office is tough though they set a price for a player and don’t go over (love this tactic). I hope we can extend him but he’s not taking less than $20 mil per season I believe the way the cap is going. Once Drew hangs it up we’re going to need him, we’ll never have a QB that let’s us get away with average receivers the way Drew did.

 

[bobad]

Wow, those are not only cap busting numbers, but team busting numbers. Paying a WR that much will trickle down until someone doesn't get paid right. When that happens, good players walk and/or the locker room may be affected. Good for Thielen, eventually bad for the Vikings.

 

[J.T.]

Love CantGuardMike. Saints front office is tough though they set a price for a player and don’t go over (love this tactic). I hope we can extend him but he’s not taking less than $20 mil per season I believe the way the cap is going. Once Drew hangs it up we’re going to need him, we’ll never have a QB that let’s us get away with average receivers they way Drew did.

If he won't "accept" less than $20 million per year, then you Franchise Tag him next year and pay the tag. It will probably be in the neighborhood of $17.6 million (I think it will be less) and the second tag would then be about $21.1 million, that would average $19.35 million over two years and the long term risk of injury lies with the player. I honestly don't think it will take $20 million per year to get a long term deal done next year for Michael Thomas. I don't believe the math will justify it. The franchise tag numbers are what matters in a long term deal, in my opinion, the numbers won't be very far off of what I have here.

The cap does not directly drive his franchise tag next year. The top five players drive it.

Who on this list, besides Michael Thomas, will drag the top five average higher, prior to March/April of 2020?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2020/all/wide-receiver/

 

[Swimmer]

Wow, those are not only cap busting numbers, but team busting numbers. Paying a WR that much will trickle down until someone doesn't get paid right. When that happens, good players walk and/or the locker room may be affected. Good for Thielen, eventually bad for the Vikings.

And when do they have to pay Diggs. Unless they trade or let Diggs walk, the Vikes will be paying over $35 million for 2 WRs. wow

 

[cant]

If he won't "accept" less than $20 million per year, then you Franchise Tag him next year and pay the tag. It will probably be in the neighborhood of $17.6 million (I think it will be less) and the second tag would then be about $21.1 million, that would average $19.35 million over two years and the long term risk of injury lies with the player. I honestly don't think it will take $20 million per year to get a long term deal done next year for Michael Thomas. I don't believe the math will justify it. The franchise tag numbers are what matters in a long term deal, in my opinion, the numbers won't be very far off of what I have here.

The cap does not directly drive his franchise tag next year. The top five players drive it.

Who on this list, besides Michael Thomas, will drag the top five average higher, prior to March/April of 2020?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2020/all/wide-receiver/

I agree and think the Saints will do that instead of paying him that much. But from MT’s perspective why would you take less? He is young and knows once Drew is gone that will make him that much more important for our offense, plus all the records he is setting. Unless the Saints tag him I don’t see a reason he would take less than around the 19-20 mil per year range?

 

[Treybad]

Nothing against MT but Personally I think its NUTS to pay a WR that kind of money.... MT does get paid by the Saints then you can count one of these players not resigning with us Cam-Kamara-Lattimore unless they raise the cap a lot.

 

[Slaw]

I don't see Thomas getting $20M a year. Julio's extension will tell us all we need to know. Team's aren't going to pay Thomas more (AAV) than Julio, no matter who we as fans think is the better player.

 

[Saint Kamara]

If the front office doesn't extend Thomas now, they have failed at their job, period.

He can get signed for $17 million right now and get financial security vs risking injury this next season. That's why he'd be much cheaper now than next off season.

 

[Slaw]

If the front office doesn't extend Thomas now, they have failed at their job, period.

He can get signed for $17 million right now and get financial security vs risking injury this next season. That's why he'd be much cheaper now than next off season.

Unless Thomas wants to wait. They can't make him sign.