After Watching All the Dolphins Games... (1 Viewer)

[DSchexnaydre]

I had a thread like this last week on the Giants and got some interesting discussion going so I thought I'd do it again.

I've spent the past few hours watching the Dolphins games in preparation for the SaintsReport Podcast tonight at 10pm. If you're interested, you can listen LIVE or at any time afterwards by going here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

Here are some things I've noticed. I'm not saying the stats always support, I'm just making note of some things I saw while skimming through these games...


1. The Dolphins are Most Effective Running Behind RT Vernon Carey

Jake Long gets all of the hype but they're much more effective when they run off right tackle. The majority of their runs (over 50%) come off guard but they get the most bang for the buck running behind Carey. They are also really effective when the run Ricky Williams in jet-motion to the left side of the formation. Luckily for the Saints, when they run at Carey they'll also be running at Charles Grant, who has been much better against the run than Will Smith this season.


2. If the Dolphins Fall Behind They've Got Essentially No Shot

As effective as they are running the ball, they're equally as bad when they try to pass. They've dropped back only 144 times this season (fewest in the NFL) and in that few attempts they've already given up 13 sacks. They've had trouble getting receivers open down the field and as a result have had trouble protecting the quarterback. They've been somewhat effective throwing the ball on 3rd and 4th downs, but they've been horrible when attempting to pass on 1st and 2nd downs. If they're forced into a situation where they fall behind and have to start throwing, it could get ugly.


3. The Saints Will Be Able to Run the Ball

The Dolphins boast a gaudy 3.4 yards per carry against the run, but if the Saints stay balanced they'll be able to run the ball. The Dolphins have done a good job of shutting down the run on 2nd downs, particularly when they know it's coming, but they've been just average on most other downs and distances.

They've been much better when opponents run to the left side of the defense, but they've been average when opponents run at Randy Starks on the right side. Left/Right success can be somewhat skewed since the outside linebackers change depending on which side of the formation is the strong side, but as a rule opponents have had more success to the right.


4. On Defense, 2nd Downs Will Be Key for the Saints

The Dolphins haven't been very good offensively on second downs, but they've been very good on 1st down and they're probably the best in the league on 3rd and short. If the Saints can hold strong on 2nd downs and force the Dolphins in 3rd and mid or 3rd and long situations, the Saints definitely have the advantage.

Once again, this is just my opinion, take it for what it's worth. If you'd like to hear more, please give us a listen on the Official SaintsReport Podcast, tonight at 10pm

You can listen LIVE here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

 

[chrisandersen]

Our MO this year has been to get ahead early and pour it on. Phins will have no chance if this trend keeps up.

 

[Fin Fan In Cali]

I had a thread like this last week on the Giants and got some interesting discussion going so I thought I'd do it again.

I've spent the past few hours watching the Dolphins games in preparation for the SaintsReport Podcast tonight at 10pm. If you're interested, you can listen LIVE or at any time afterwards by going here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

Here are some things I've noticed. I'm not saying the stats always support, I'm just making note of some things I saw while skimming through these games...


1. The Dolphins are Most Effective Running Behind RT Vernon Carey

Jake Long gets all of the hype but they're much more effective when they run off right tackle. The majority of their runs (over 50%) come off guard but they get the most bang for the buck running behind Carey. They are also really effective when the run Ricky Williams in jet-motion to the left side of the formation. Luckily for the Saints, when they run at Carey they'll also be running at Charles Grant, who has been much better against the run than Will Smith this season.


2. If the Dolphins Fall Behind They've Got Essentially No Shot

As effective as they are running the ball, they're equally as bad when they try to pass. They've dropped back only 144 times this season (fewest in the NFL) and in that few attempts they've already given up 13 sacks. They've had trouble getting receivers open down the field and as a result have had trouble protecting the quarterback. They've been somewhat effective throwing the ball on 3rd and 4th downs, but they've been horrible when attempting to pass on 1st and 2nd downs. If they're forced into a situation where they fall behind and have to start throwing, it could get ugly.


3. The Saints Will Be Able to Run the Ball

The Dolphins boast a gaudy 3.4 yards per carry against the run, but if the Saints stay balanced they'll be able to run the ball. The Dolphins have done a good job of shutting down the run on 2nd downs, particularly when they know it's coming, but they've been just average on most other downs and distances.

They've been much better when opponents run to the left side of the defense, but they've been average when opponents run at Randy Starks on the right side. Left/Right success can be somewhat skewed since the outside linebackers change depending on which side of the formation is the strong side, but as a rule opponents have had more success to the right.


4. On Defense, 2nd Downs Will Be Key for the Saints

The Dolphins haven't been very good offensively on second downs, but they've been very good on 1st down and they're probably the best in the league on 3rd and short. If the Saints can hold strong on 2nd downs and force the Dolphins in 3rd and mid or 3rd and long situations, the Saints definitely have the advantage.

Once again, this is just my opinion, take it for what it's worth. If you'd like to hear more, please give us a listen on the Official SaintsReport Podcast, tonight at 10pm

You can listen LIVE here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

I think #2 you need to take with a grain of salt. Henne is becoming more and more comfortable as the starter, and getting in sync with the offense. Now does that mean he can come back against a team like the Saints? Who knows. We will see this weekend.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

David, thanks for sharing your game tape observations. If I can stay up, I'll be listening.

 

[Super Dad]

We score 25 and we win the game!

 

[iambruce]

live now!!!

 

[LSPSaint]

I think #2 you need to take with a grain of salt. Henne is becoming more and more comfortable as the starter, and getting in sync with the offense. Now does that mean he can come back against a team like the Saints? Who knows. We will see this weekend.

I agree very much with this. We can't just assume their pass game will suck because it has all year until the Jets game. Henne torched the Jets and looked GREAT. He will provide a dimension the Dolphins haven't had and will put plenty of pressure on our pass D with his arm strength and accuracy.

 

[FFSaint]

The Jets did pretty well against them through the air. I believe Drew will eat their lunch and we may see the same game plan as we did last week. Stopping the run is stopping the run. The Saints rush defense may be a bit skewed due to the leads this team has had in the 2nd half of most games this season. The Jets defense got gashed by the wildcat. We'll see how good one component of our defense is this week.

 

[eyehatethefalcons]

Does anyone really think that Chad Henne has what it takes at this stage of his career, to match Drew Brees touchdown for touchdown if it comes to it? I sure don't. Henne has a nice arm, but if he does not have the running game to make it easier for him and he has pressure put on him to do what Brees is doing, he simply won't be able to do so. It's not a knock on Henne, it's just a nod toward Brees and the rest of the Saints and what they're capable of doing.
Bottom line, if the Dolphins get down by 14-17 points, they can mark it down as a loss. However, IF they can keep the game close and execute the wildcat the way they did against the Jets, their chances of winning will go up dramatically.

 

[birdog]

I had a thread like this last week on the Giants and got some interesting discussion going so I thought I'd do it again.

I've spent the past few hours watching the Dolphins games in preparation for the SaintsReport Podcast tonight at 10pm. If you're interested, you can listen LIVE or at any time afterwards by going here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

Here are some things I've noticed. I'm not saying the stats always support, I'm just making note of some things I saw while skimming through these games...


1. The Dolphins are Most Effective Running Behind RT Vernon Carey

Jake Long gets all of the hype but they're much more effective when they run off right tackle. The majority of their runs (over 50%) come off guard but they get the most bang for the buck running behind Carey. They are also really effective when the run Ricky Williams in jet-motion to the left side of the formation. Luckily for the Saints, when they run at Carey they'll also be running at Charles Grant, who has been much better against the run than Will Smith this season.



www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

Injterestingly....that is the plays easiest to defend....flood the LOS and send R Harper in motion to follow RW...and as soon he turns the corner to go up.....Harper can nail him even for a loss.

Out of that play comes another one...the power play.....when R Brown keeps the ball to himself and as soon RW runs away, he (RB) heads straight up....if the Saints flood the LOS, they can stop the power play.

 

[vancitysaint]

Good insight.

 

[shaihulud]

I think #2 you need to take with a grain of salt. Henne is becoming more and more comfortable as the starter, and getting in sync with the offense. Now does that mean he can come back against a team like the Saints? Who knows. We will see this weekend.

I was thinking the same thing. He was finding his receivers when he needed to do so. All depends on how he reads and handles the various blitzes he can expect to see. I truly hate the Wildcat...hehe

 

[StJacques]

I had a thread like this last week on the Giants and got some interesting discussion going so I thought I'd do it again.

I've spent the past few hours watching the Dolphins games in preparation for the SaintsReport Podcast tonight at 10pm. If you're interested, you can listen LIVE or at any time afterwards by going here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

Here are some things I've noticed. I'm not saying the stats always support, I'm just making note of some things I saw while skimming through these games...


1. The Dolphins are Most Effective Running Behind RT Vernon Carey

Jake Long gets all of the hype but they're much more effective when they run off right tackle. The majority of their runs (over 50%) come off guard but they get the most bang for the buck running behind Carey. They are also really effective when the run Ricky Williams in jet-motion to the left side of the formation. Luckily for the Saints, when they run at Carey they'll also be running at Charles Grant, who has been much better against the run than Will Smith this season.


2. If the Dolphins Fall Behind They've Got Essentially No Shot

As effective as they are running the ball, they're equally as bad when they try to pass. They've dropped back only 144 times this season (fewest in the NFL) and in that few attempts they've already given up 13 sacks. They've had trouble getting receivers open down the field and as a result have had trouble protecting the quarterback. They've been somewhat effective throwing the ball on 3rd and 4th downs, but they've been horrible when attempting to pass on 1st and 2nd downs. If they're forced into a situation where they fall behind and have to start throwing, it could get ugly.


3. The Saints Will Be Able to Run the Ball

The Dolphins boast a gaudy 3.4 yards per carry against the run, but if the Saints stay balanced they'll be able to run the ball. The Dolphins have done a good job of shutting down the run on 2nd downs, particularly when they know it's coming, but they've been just average on most other downs and distances.

They've been much better when opponents run to the left side of the defense, but they've been average when opponents run at Randy Starks on the right side. Left/Right success can be somewhat skewed since the outside linebackers change depending on which side of the formation is the strong side, but as a rule opponents have had more success to the right.


4. On Defense, 2nd Downs Will Be Key for the Saints

The Dolphins haven't been very good offensively on second downs, but they've been very good on 1st down and they're probably the best in the league on 3rd and short. If the Saints can hold strong on 2nd downs and force the Dolphins in 3rd and mid or 3rd and long situations, the Saints definitely have the advantage.

Once again, this is just my opinion, take it for what it's worth. If you'd like to hear more, please give us a listen on the Official SaintsReport Podcast, tonight at 10pm

You can listen LIVE here...

www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SaintsReport

Nice job DSchexnaydre; I like all of this, but I want to zero in on the two points I have underlined.

With respect to getting the Dolphins to fall behind so we can force them into the passing game, I am convinced this is the true key to what we must do in Miami on Sunday. Your entire paragraph makes the point perfectly. Miami MUST either get a lead or stay close so that they can be patient and keep the Saints offense on the bench. If they fail and fall behind to any degree, it will be lights out.

And just to give you the hard stats on 3rd Down Conversions, go here:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...=true&Submit=Go&tabSeq=2&role=TM&d-447263-p=1

You were right. The Dolphins are first in the league in both 3rd Down conversion percentage (56%) and 4th Down conversion percentage (4 for 4 - 100%).

An excellent analysis, five stars, and a thumbs up!

 

[AdamWest]

I'll be interested to see who is going to match up with Ted Ginn most of the game.

 

[Vega$$aint]

I really think this week it is vital to win the coin toss and get the ball first. You want to get up on this team as quick as possible.

eric