Air Yards Suddenly Not That Important, huh? (1 Viewer)

[Bob1234]

Used incorrectly to help brady and the patriots, to stary the nfls golden boy. We can agree to disagree on that but for the past 20 years the nfl has done everything they can to powder bradys arse. I won't lie, I don't like the guy and this year you can see why. He is not this great leader, now that he is playing real competition, he is always pouting.

 

[SystemShock]

The one game KC lost, they were down two scores in the fourth quarter and guess who couldn't lead them back to victory? Yeah, the great Patrick Mahomes. What a loser.

Who's calling anyone a loser?

Drew Brees has led us back in 3 consecutive games this season in which we were down by at least 10 points. Do you know how many times in history that's happened?

And he couldn't lead them back in 2 games this season.

 

[Saint Kamara]

Who's calling anyone a loser?


And he couldn't lead them back in 2 games this season.

Brees was down 17 to the Chargers with less than 2 minutes to go in the half and the entire length of the field to traverse.

Don't readily dismiss Brees as having no comeback ability if he gets down big. He's already proved that narrative wrong.

 

[boutte]

Wrong. Brees started throwing the ball beyond the LOS more in his last 3 games and that opened up sooo much more of the field for the offense. Had he continued with his early season play, I guarantee you the offense would have suffered from that as defenses would have clamped down even tighter. Yes, I like it when Brees stays in his lane but, every now and then, he has to get it up the field or else defenses will not respect anything past 10 yards.

You should tell him that. I'm sure he and the coaching staff would smack their foreheads and scream "WHY DIDN'T WE THINK OF THAT!"

 

[boutte]

Who's calling anyone a loser?


And he couldn't lead them back in 2 games this season.

Yeah forget the ones he won, the important thing is that twice he was unable to singlehandedly compensate for the deficiencies of the whole team. Everybody knows that if your team loses it's always because your QB sucks. No excuses.

 

[Pkessling]

Who's calling anyone a loser?


And he couldn't lead them back in 2 games this season.

 

[SystemShock]

Yeah forget the ones he won, the important thing is that twice he was unable to singlehandedly compensate for the deficiencies of the whole team. Everybody knows that if your team loses it's always because your QB sucks. No excuses.

I am not forgetting anything.

I am making a simple observation, that is is harder to play in a reduced field without the ability to stretch the field, but apparently I am disrespecting Drew Brees and people are getting bent out of shape.

It really isn't different from saying it is harder to run the ball with 9 players in the box that it is to run the ball with only 6 players in the box.

But whatever..

 

[boutte]

I am not forgetting anything.

I am making a simple observation, that is is harder to play in a reduced field without the ability to stretch the field, but apparently I am disrespecting Drew Brees and people are getting bent out of shape.

It really isn't different from saying it is harder to run the ball with 9 players in the box that it is to run the ball with only 6 players in the box.

But whatever..

I think we all know that.
My response was more targeted at your pointing out that Brees was unable to lead us back to two win 2 games in the 4th quarter as it that negated the ones he was able to win.

Sorry if I came off snarky.

 

[SystemShock]

I think we all know that.
My response was more targeted at your pointing out that Brees was unable to lead us back to two win 2 games in the 4th quarter as it that negated the ones he was able to win.

Sorry if I came off snarky.

No need to be sorry.

And just to clarify, I am not trying to negate anything. I made a simple observation, that is harder to move the ball when you don't stretch the field.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

In Chicago, we definitely didn't open up the field, in fact the Kamara 40 yard YAC play is the only reason Drew had a paltry 6.8 ypa, otherwise it would have been a dismal 6.0.

Brees definitely struggled to open up the field vs the 49ers. That entire first half was like pulling teeth. Luckily they gave us short fields in order to score.

That leaves the Bucs game. We had a little better downfield passing in that game but certainly still restrained.

I stand by my conclusion.

I just wanna point out YPA does not equal air yards. DOT/IAY are the analytics you're looking for. (Depth of Target and Intended Air Yards). DOT covers the WRs and IAY covers the quaterback side. The ability to stress the field vertically does, in fact, "open" up more parts of the offense. This is undeniable. Just like play-action does. Just like motion and screens can. YPA is a poor stat to draw from because things like efficiency (shorter passes = more completions, thus more yards per attempt, or at least balancing out YPA while inflating completion %) and the success of others (YAC from receivers).

All of these have various influences and changes on defenses. Right now, Brees has an IAY of 5.8 which is 2nd lowest in the NFL. The QBs in his area? Alex Smith, Jimmy G., Teddy B., Andy Dalton, Nick Mullens, cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff (all have 6.9 or less).

What we essentially run into is that Brees is the exception to the common rule. Air yards (can be) are important, but its not some end all be all stat. It's kind of like saying "well if you run 40 times you probably won the game". Well, yea, and if you score 40 points you probably won the game to. Picking any one stat out of context is dangerous.

This is the problem with most national media. Everything is out of context because truly providing in depth coverage on 32 teams and all of their players is close to impossible. I struggle doing it with one.

 

[Saint Kamara]

I just wanna point out YPA does not equal air yards. DOT/IAY are the analytics you're looking for. (Depth of Target and Intended Air Yards). DOT covers the WRs and IAY covers the quaterback side. The ability to stress the field vertically does, in fact, "open" up more parts of the offense. This is undeniable. Just like play-action does. Just like motion and screens can. YPA is a poor stat to draw from because things like efficiency (shorter passes = more completions, thus more yards per attempt, or at least balancing out YPA while inflating completion %) and the success of others (YAC from receivers).

All of these have various influences and changes on defenses. Right now, Brees has an IAY of 5.8 which is 2nd lowest in the NFL. The QBs in his area? Alex Smith, Jimmy G., Teddy B., Andy Dalton, Nick Mullens, cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff (all have 6.9 or less).

What we essentially run into is that Brees is the exception to the common rule. Air yards (can be) are important, but its not some end all be all stat. It's kind of like saying "well if you run 40 times you probably won the game". Well, yea, and if you score 40 points you probably won the game to. Picking any one stat out of context is dangerous.

This is the problem with most national media. Everything is out of context because truly providing in depth coverage on 32 teams and all of their players is close to impossible. I struggle doing it with one.

Agreed YPA and air yards are different obviously.

But YPA is much more important than any other analytic because it points directly to an end result. A tangible number that describing the efficiency of your passing game.

I can show you plenty of QBs in the past 4 seasons where Brees lagged far behind in air yards but was substantially better in yards per attempt. There's no debating which quarterback you would take in that instance.

Yards per attempt, TD:Int ratio and sack% are the 3 most important stats for a quarterback's success. And Brees has led or is very near the top in the NFL in all 3 categories since the beginning of 2017 (cumulative stats).

 

[Bob1234]

Honest question, why are there so many post on air yards, yards per attempt, etc... you can be tops in said categories but if you throw interceptions, turn the ball over. What do those stats really matter? I wouldn't care if brees threw all his passes short to Kamara or Thomas and they got 99 yards after catch. As long as we get touchdowns and win

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

Agreed YPA and air yards are different obviously.

But YPA is much more important than any other analytic because it points directly to an end result. A tangible number that describing the efficiency of your passing game.

I can show you plenty of QBs in the past 4 seasons where Brees lagged far behind in air yards but was substantially better in yards per attempt. There's no debating which quarterback you would take in that instance.

Yards per attempt, TD:Int ratio and sack% are the 3 most important stats for a quarterback's success. And Brees has led or is very near the top in the NFL in all 3 categories since the beginning of 2017 (cumulative stats).

I don't argee with that (your selections) but understand why you're choosing them. I'd argue YPA is one of the least important metrics out there with QB RTG. His YPA is only high because of the players around him, not because of his own ability. Brees' ability has severely declined in recent seasons, so much so that the things have been removed completely from the playbook. It's a testament to Payton and how good he is as an OC/Playcaller to overcome a declining super star and multiple backup QBs.

 

[RevDeuceWindham]

Honest question, why are there so many post on air yards, yards per attempt, etc... you can be tops in said categories but if you throw interceptions, turn the ball over. What do those stats really matter? I wouldn't care if brees threw all his passes short to Kamara or Thomas and they got 99 yards after catch. As long as we get touchdowns and win

It really all comes down to people (national media) finding ways to discount Brees as a player. But, he overcomes his physical limitations in other ways. That's all .