Alvin Kamara skips last minicamp practice over contract dispute (No Guarantees in ‘25); Alvin Kamara is seeking an extension (1 Viewer)

[St. Geezy]

I understand the age 30 thing, but most RBs have more carries than AK at this point.

Carries yes, but what about touches? Those hits off receptions matter too.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

Too old? Taysom Hill is older, will have a similar workload and nobody has an issue with how much he makes or his age. TBH Kamara outside playing QB for a "Student body right" play is more usable on Offense. So being said...him being 29 shouldn't be a problem.

 

[SWJJ]

Who said he was too old?

Every person approaching this injury subject is doing it from an analytics/odds point of view, with the thought in mind that these are things the team must analyze before shelling out more cash, and is likely why there seems to be an impasse brewing. This is based on countless examples of other guys that have clunked out at or near 30.

Trotting out a list of guys that either a.) barely played most of their careers and are shining now or b.) are on the who’s who list of HOF running backs doesn’t change much.

Why are people acting like it is so egregious to suggest the team may have concerns about paying a 30 year old back that has missed time just about every year with various ailments, including many lower extremity/knee injuries? My mind is truly blown here.

As documented already, the claims of falloff in his production have been greatly exaggerated. His per game yards from scrimmage have been borderline top 5 RB number in a Pete Carmichael offense. Other people think his age means he can't produce or play at a high level any longer. There is just no evidence to that being the case.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

It begins and ends here. And it shows how completely inept we are from a roster management perspective in the FO.

The Saints have tried, multiple years, to make Kamara a bellcow. And every one of those years, he wore down and got hurt. His most effective years were part of a tandem. So instead of going out to seek a complimentary RB in FA or the draft......we are going to try to jam the square peg in the round hole. Again, for the 4th or 5th time.

But now its not an experiment with Kamara. At least the year Ingram was suspended those 4 games, Kamara at least had youth on his side. In the realm of RBs, Kamara is now a dinosaur. Writing is on the wall for AK. Get your money now because they have decided to run you into the ground instead of finding you some help.

I think you misunderstood, what I meant.

You are correct in that the Saints used him incorrectly the last two years by making him a bellcow back in the “traditional” sense, and asking him to run the ball against more goal line, stacked boxes, and short yardage.

What I meant is that our previous offense, saw the RB and the run game as complimentary to the pass.

This system sees the pass as complimentary to the run and thus the offense will go through Kamara. They will easily look to give him over 200 touches this year as a runner and receiver, no different than the 49ers did with McCaffrey last year.

No, I think they are correctly assessing he was used improperly and found a scheme that better fits him but if your going to make him the focal point, at least give him some security beyond this year, and commit to him.

I don’t think he’s asking for an expensive Diamond ring, but he is asking for a ring

 

[kcirdor]

Too old? Taysom Hill is older, will have a similar workload and nobody has an issue with how much he makes or his age. TBH Kamara outside playing QB for a "Student body right" play is more usable on Offense. So being said...him being 29 shouldn't be a problem.

taysom hill isn't preparing to hold out though

 

[St. Geezy]

Too old? Taysom Hill is older, will have a similar workload and nobody has an issue with how much he makes or his age. TBH Kamara outside playing QB for a "Student body right" play is more usable on Offense. So being said...him being 29 shouldn't be a problem.

Are we really comparing a guy with 400 career carries to someone with over 1300 carries and 500 career receptions?

This isn’t just some in the vacuum thing where someone reaches a certain age and loses ability. It is also about workload and proverbial tread left on tires.

Every carry and career touch takes plays off of the back end of your career, and that’s what this whole thing is going to boil down to…what is Alvin’s expiration date? What does the data show on 29 year old RBs that’ll be well over 2000 career touches by mid-season (and this number doesn't even factor in plays that didn't count due to penalties for one reason or another, which matter also)? I don't know that answer, but more and more backs are losing it earlier. I don't know if it is because the game is seeing bigger, faster, stronger defenders or what. But something is definitely making backs with a lot of touches fall off sharply, many before even getting to 29.

As documented already, the claims of falloff in his production have been greatly exaggerated. His per game yards from scrimmage have been borderline top 5 RB number in a Pete Carmichael offense. Other people think his age means he can't produce or play at a high level any longer. There is just no evidence to that being the case.

Documented where? Are you telling me you see the same Alvin Kamara today than you saw three or four years ago?

Look at his YPC and YPR averages. Go watch his highlights from early on his career. He may still flash here and there but I don’t see the same explosive Kamara that can’t be brought done by first contact consistently and I certainly don't see the same ability to run away from the defense in the open field. Are we really going to blame his career-low 17 yard rushing long and 25 yard receiving long this past season on PC, 100%?

Man I am sorry to say but I think you would have to be the most sunshine of sunshine pumpers to not see that Alvin isn’t the same explosive guy anymore. And I am not even saying he doesn’t have enough in him at this stage; this is about future projections in relation to future compensation. There is more than enough evidence to be concerned about a 29 year old RB POTENTIALLY starting a really sharp decline soon.

We have all been talking about backs hitting the wall as 30 approaches most of our lives, and especially in the past decade or so...it's fascinating to me now that all of a sudden, now that it is our guy up for a new deal and perhaps seeing some resistance from the team side to the point where he walks out on a practice, people think our guy is immune to father time and the RB grim reaper.

Even with the stats below aside, just from watching the tape, you can see he’s just not the same guy other than spurts, which is typical for a player of his caliber as the end draws near.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

taysom hill isn't preparing to hold out though

Are we really comparing a guy with 400 career carries to someone with over 1300 carries and 500 career receptions?

This isn’t just some in the vacuum thing where someone reaches a certain age and loses ability. It is also about workload and proverbial tread left on tires.

Every carry and career touch takes plays off of the back end of your career, and that’s what this whole thing is going to boil down to…what is Alvin’s expiration date? What does the data show on 29 year old RBs that’ll be well over 2000 career touches by mid-season? I don't know that answer, but more and more backs are losing it earlier. I don't know if it is because the game is seeing bigger, faster, stronger defenders or what. But something is definitely making backs with a lot of touches fall off sharply, many before even getting to 29.



Documented where? Are you telling me you see the same Alvin Kamara today than you saw three or four years ago?

Look at his YPC and YPR averages. Go watch his highlights from early on his career. He may still flash here and there but I don’t see the same explosive Kamara that can’t be brought done by first contact consistently and I certainly don't see the same ability to run away from the defense in the open field. Are we really going to blame his career-low 17 yard rushing long and 25 yard receiving long this past season on PC, 100%?

Man I am sorry to say but I think you would have to be the most sunshine of sunshine pumpers to not see that Alvin isn’t the same explosive guy anymore. And I am not even saying he doesn’t have enough in him at this stage; this is about future projections in relation to future compensation. There is more than enough evidence to be concerned about a 29 year old RB POTENTIALLY starting a really sharp decline soon.

We have all been talking about backs hitting the wall as 30 approaches most of our lives, and especially in the past decade or so...it's fascinating to me now that all of a sudden, now that it is our guy up for a new deal and perhaps seeing some resistance from the team side to the point where he walks out on a practice, people think our guy is immune to father time and the RB grim reaper.

Even with the stats below aside, just from watching the tape, you can see he’s just not the same guy other than spurts, which is typical for a player of his caliber as the end draws near.

Ok...fair enough, then extend him to a deal that puts him ~6th on our roster in terms of cap hit and reduce his workload to Hill's workload.

 

[SweetT]

Hmm, here's what I think I know...and why I'm siding with Alvin on this.

-McCaffrey when coming out, was a superior prospect to AK, it's why he went in the 1st round

-AK meanwhile has outperformed his draft status, partially because of his talent, partially because of lucking up and falling to a Sean Payton offense.

-For multiple years, while McCaffrey was good despite of the shortcomings in Carolina, AK proved to be better value and equally as good as McCaffey

-However, in the time since Drew's retirement, Payton's departure, and McCaffrey landing in San Fran, their careers have taken different paths

-Alvin's ability to produce at as Alvin level has been reduced, McCaffrey has been allowed to showcase his talents in a better environment.

-Alvin has had knee injuries dating back to college

-49ers paid McCaffrey, but are looking to lighten his workload

-Saints don't want to commit to Alvin but are going to make him the bellcow.



And that last sentence is why Alvin should be doing what he's doing. The 49ers appreciate McCaffrey, and have committed to him not only in money but in taking care of him. The Saints are absolutely planning on grinding Kamara out this season and walking away from him. Guarantee it, and if I'm Alvin I know it and I'm cool with it but I'd want them to treat me like the 49ers did a similar player, in a similar scheme. Take care of me is all he's saying and I'll give you everything I have left, just like the 49ers are going to do w/ McCaffrey. They are both no different in their potential to fall off a cliff, hell we could argue McCaffrey's workload dating back to college increases his chance to suddenly fall off a cliff, even more so than Alvin due to his knee injuries. At the very least it puts them on equal ground for the exact same thing.


Saints should work to secure Alvin, it's the right thing to do on multiple levels for multiple reasons despite fiscally irresponsibly argument.

EXCELLENT observation

 

[SweetT]

all those swing passes and dumps Brees always made are also "carries."

It’s not the same in terms of how hard you are getting hit physically. Swing passes allowed him to reach the 2nd and 3rd level of the defense, instead of possibly getting stonewalled by a 300+lb lineman or two.

 

[St. Geezy]

It’s not the same in terms of how hard you are getting hit physically. Swing passes allowed him to reach the 2nd and 3rd level of the defense, instead of possibly getting stonewalled by a 300+lb lineman or two.

Man y’all just be saying ANYTHING. Come on now. Lol

 

[dtc]

Are we really comparing a guy with 400 career carries to someone with over 1300 carries and 500 career receptions?

This isn’t just some in the vacuum thing where someone reaches a certain age and loses ability. It is also about workload and proverbial tread left on tires.

Every carry and career touch takes plays off of the back end of your career, and that’s what this whole thing is going to boil down to…what is Alvin’s expiration date? What does the data show on 29 year old RBs that’ll be well over 2000 career touches by mid-season (and this number doesn't even factor in plays that didn't count due to penalties for one reason or another, which matter also)? I don't know that answer, but more and more backs are losing it earlier. I don't know if it is because the game is seeing bigger, faster, stronger defenders or what. But something is definitely making backs with a lot of touches fall off sharply, many before even getting to 29.



Documented where? Are you telling me you see the same Alvin Kamara today than you saw three or four years ago?

Look at his YPC and YPR averages. Go watch his highlights from early on his career. He may still flash here and there but I don’t see the same explosive Kamara that can’t be brought done by first contact consistently and I certainly don't see the same ability to run away from the defense in the open field. Are we really going to blame his career-low 17 yard rushing long and 25 yard receiving long this past season on PC, 100%?

Man I am sorry to say but I think you would have to be the most sunshine of sunshine pumpers to not see that Alvin isn’t the same explosive guy anymore. And I am not even saying he doesn’t have enough in him at this stage; this is about future projections in relation to future compensation. There is more than enough evidence to be concerned about a 29 year old RB POTENTIALLY starting a really sharp decline soon.

We have all been talking about backs hitting the wall as 30 approaches most of our lives, and especially in the past decade or so...it's fascinating to me now that all of a sudden, now that it is our guy up for a new deal and perhaps seeing some resistance from the team side to the point where he walks out on a practice, people think our guy is immune to father time and the RB grim reaper.

Even with the stats below aside, just from watching the tape, you can see he’s just not the same guy other than spurts, which is typical for a player of his caliber as the end draws near.

Are we really comparing a guy with 400 career carries to someone with over 1300 carries and 500 career receptions?

This isn’t just some in the vacuum thing where someone reaches a certain age and loses ability. It is also about workload and proverbial tread left on tires.

Every carry and career touch takes plays off of the back end of your career, and that’s what this whole thing is going to boil down to…what is Alvin’s expiration date? What does the data show on 29 year old RBs that’ll be well over 2000 career touches by mid-season (and this number doesn't even factor in plays that didn't count due to penalties for one reason or another, which matter also)? I don't know that answer, but more and more backs are losing it earlier. I don't know if it is because the game is seeing bigger, faster, stronger defenders or what. But something is definitely making backs with a lot of touches fall off sharply, many before even getting to 29.



Documented where? Are you telling me you see the same Alvin Kamara today than you saw three or four years ago?

Look at his YPC and YPR averages. Go watch his highlights from early on his career. He may still flash here and there but I don’t see the same explosive Kamara that can’t be brought done by first contact consistently and I certainly don't see the same ability to run away from the defense in the open field. Are we really going to blame his career-low 17 yard rushing long and 25 yard receiving long this past season on PC, 100%?

Man I am sorry to say but I think you would have to be the most sunshine of sunshine pumpers to not see that Alvin isn’t the same explosive guy anymore. And I am not even saying he doesn’t have enough in him at this stage; this is about future projections in relation to future compensation. There is more than enough evidence to be concerned about a 29 year old RB POTENTIALLY starting a really sharp decline soon.

We have all been talking about backs hitting the wall as 30 approaches most of our lives, and especially in the past decade or so...it's fascinating to me now that all of a sudden, now that it is our guy up for a new deal and perhaps seeing some resistance from the team side to the point where he walks out on a practice, people think our guy is immune to father time and the RB grim reaper.

Even with the stats below aside, just from watching the tape, you can see he’s just not the same guy other than spurts, which is typical for a player of his caliber as the end draws near.

The problem with this argument is that Kamara hasn't been overused. He's never had more than 18.5 carries per game which is nothing like the 20 years of 40 carries that people like Emmit Smith had or the 12-13 Adrian Peterson had. Barry Sanders retired relatively early with way more touches so I'd say Kamara is on the light side of used up at this stage.

 

[SweetT]

Man y’all just be saying ANYTHING. Come on now. Lol

Prove me wrong then

 

[St. Geezy]

Prove me wrong then

How?!

That’s impossible to even quantify or attribute to career decline/non decline and you know that.

Hits are hits.

 

[St. Geezy]

The problem with this argument is that Kamara hasn't been overused. He's never had more than 18.5 carries per game which is nothing like the 20 years of 40 carries that people like Emmit Smith had or the 12-13 Adrian Peterson had. Barry Sanders retired relatively early with way more touches so I'd say Kamara is on the light side of used up at this stage.

Alvin has had a unique career where you can’t just look at carries. All touches must be assessed.

As said earlier in the thread, Alvin is virtually the only RB in NFL history with a “superstar” reputation without a single 1000 yard season. He does other things, including an abnormal number of screens and swing passes, and those other things need to factor just as heavily into the evaluation and future projections.

 

[SweetT]

How?!

That’s impossible to even quantify or attribute to career decline/non decline and you know that.

Hits are hits.

And just like i thought.