Alvin Kamara skips last minicamp practice over contract dispute (No Guarantees in ‘25); Alvin Kamara is seeking an extension (3 Viewers)

[St. Geezy]

And just like i thought.

So that’s what we are doing now? Just saying random made up stuff no one has ever heard of in their lives then when disagreed with tell the other to prove this impossible to prove thing wrong?

So I guess we need to go back and look at all carries and receptions that resulted in little to no contact, where he went out of bounds, etc. too? Do we need to also breakdown which swing passes/screens resulted in hits from DL versus which ones resulted in takedowns from DBs? Or how about how many carries or receptions didn’t make it to the stat sheet due to penalty?

When discussed in this sort of context, hits are hits, take downs to the ground are take downs to the ground, and touches are touches.

I would say the onus is on you is to prove this never heard of before element you have brought to the conversation, not the other way around.

 

[saint_drago]

The problem with this argument is that Kamara hasn't been overused. He's never had more than 18.5 carries per game which is nothing like the 20 years of 40 carries that people like Emmit Smith had or the 12-13 Adrian Peterson had. Barry Sanders retired relatively early with way more touches so I'd say Kamara is on the light side of used up at this stage.

I guess the counter to this is that despite his relative limited usage he's still dinged up a good bit.

But St Geezy has a fair point. The number 30 has spelled doom for RBs for years and it hasn't been disputed. An outlier here and there do some things past 30 but for the most part late 20s/30 has proven to be the expiration date for the vast majority of RBs. But now that one of our all time favorite players is nearing that mark we're throwing all that out the window lol.

I remember similar debates about Mark Ingram. People were talking about how he wasn't ridden into the ground and he could have a lot of tread left on the tires. He left the Saints, turned 30, had one last good season, and then fell off the face of the earth. There's just no way to know how past usage will effect future production. Some guys like Curtis Martin were worked like rented mules and they were able to have a few good seasons after 30. Some guys are done well before they reach 30. Just no way to know.

 

[SweetT]

So that’s what we are doing now? Just saying random made up stuff no one has ever heard of in their lives then when disagreed with tell the other to prove this impossible to prove thing wrong?

So I guess we need to go back and look at all carries and receptions that resulted in little to no contact, where he went out of bounds, etc. too? Do we need to also breakdown which swing passes/screens resulted in hits from DL versus which ones resulted in takedowns from DBs? Or how about how many carries or receptions didn’t make it to the stat sheet due to penalty?

When discussed in this sort of context, hits are hits, take downs to the ground are take downs to the ground, and touches are touches.

I would say the onus is on you is to prove this never heard of before element you have brought to the conversation, not the other way around.

If you can’t tell the difference between getting hit by a 300lb lineman vs a dang light LB or skinny CB, then I can’t help you

 

[St. Geezy]

This article is FFL centric, but contains a lot of good analytics information in regards to RB play drop off.

I’m sure this article based on quantifiable factual data will be dismissed though since it’s a FFL site and doesn’t contain what you want to hear.

The Peak Age for an NFL Running Back

Mike Braude studies the peak age for an NFL running back. The study examines what ages running backs are most likely to produce at a high level.

apexfantasyleagues.com

Here is another analytics study which concludes age 29 is where the sharp drop off begins. Once again, this is factual analytics data, regardless of who published it.

The NFL Running Back Age Cliff – Northwestern Sports Analytics Group

sites.northwestern.edu

And again, I cannot emphasize this enough…I am not saying that this is what will DEFINITELY happen to Kamara. The only point I am making is that this impasse could turn ugly only because these are legitimate factors that the Saints have to weigh, and like many of you on this thread, I am sure it’s not what Kamara wants to hear.

The front office has to analyze risk, and from all accounts and historical data, it appears to be a high probability that they will get burned on a new deal for Alvin.

 

[St. Geezy]

If you can’t tell the difference between getting hit by a 300lb lineman vs a dang light LB or skinny CB, then I can’t help you

So every single pass reception, the majority being screens and swing passes, automatically means getting hit by a “dang light LB or skinny CB?” And furthermore those hits count for nothing?

And conversely, ever single carry automatically means getting hit by a 300 pound lineman at full force?

I know you want to defend our guy by all means necessary, but this is getting a tad bit ridiculous, I’m sorry.

 

[Nolan]

So every single pass reception, the majority being screens and swing passes, automatically means getting hit by a “dang light LB or skinny CB?” And furthermore those hits count for nothing?

And conversely, ever single carry automatically means getting hit by a 300 pound lineman at full force?

I know you want to defend our guy by all means necessary, but this is getting a tad bit ridiculous, I’m sorry.

I mean it's not just about one 300lb lineman at full force. In between the tackle runs usually end up with multiple lineman, both offensive and defensive, in the mix, in addition to linebackers and safeties running down hill. That's physically taxing running, objectively.

On the flip side, while not all catches are going to result in a DB bumping you out of bounds, majority of those touches are less taxing on an athlete.

And it's only mostly screens and swing passes for the past two years when we're less creative offensively. When you get him out of the backfield on an option route or a wheel route, particularly vs man coverage, you're not going to have guys running full speed downhill at you like they would if you're catching a swing pass 5 yards behind the LOS. These plays usually end up with one or two players around you, if not just ending up out of bounds.

I've been chomping at the bit about less carries and more catches, but not just more catches for the sake of checking a reception box, but the RIGHT TYPE of catches. Look at his most productive years. Less than 200 carries, and over 80 catches. Look at when his production started to dip - over 200 carries, and never once over 80 catches. It's not hard, the blueprint on him performing at a HOF level was set. We just got away from it.

And it's how you keep his injuries down. I get the stigma of running backs approaching 30, but he's 29 and even with the increased traditional carries the past few years, he still has less carries than all of his peers in the respected timeline of him entering the league. And he hasn't had any major career altering injuries that can really kill a career. It's just been little things here and there, and he's still never played in less than 13 games in a season.

The choice is easy for me - extend him for 2 more years and be smarter about how you use him. A few less physically taxing carries a game, and add in more catches that don't start behind the LOS - it's a proven recipe.

 

[Deuuuuce]

The more I think about it, the more I see Kamara having all the leverage here. The new offensive system is all based off of the running game and being able to sell it. AK knows he is going to be used way more this year than in previous years, and I don’t blame him for trying to secure more money so that he doesn’t hit the market banged up after a full season of carrying the load for this offense.

The longer he holds out, the more everyone else’s value goes down, especially Olave’s. After Kamara, Olave’s really the only guy who has proven he can produce over 1,000 yards, and we’ve seen what it looks like when teams focus in on him. It’s not ideal.

 

[SweetT]

I mean it's not just about one 300lb lineman at full force. In between the tackle runs usually end up with multiple lineman, both offensive and defensive, in the mix, in addition to linebackers and safeties running down hill. That's physically taxing running, objectively.

On the flip side, while not all catches are going to result in a DB bumping you out of bounds, majority of those touches are less taxing on an athlete.

And it's only mostly screens and swing passes for the past two years when we're less creative offensively. When you get him out of the backfield on an option route or a wheel route, particularly vs man coverage, you're not going to have guys running full speed downhill at you like they would if you're catching a swing pass 5 yards behind the LOS. These plays usually end up with one or two players around you, if not just ending up out of bounds.

I've been chomping at the bit about less carries and more catches, but not just more catches for the sake of checking a reception box, but the RIGHT TYPE of catches. Look at his most productive years. Less than 200 carries, and over 80 catches. Look at when his production started to dip - over 200 carries, and never once over 80 catches. It's not hard, the blueprint on him performing at a HOF level was set. We just got away from it.

And it's how you keep his injuries down. I get the stigma of running backs approaching 30, but he's 29 and even with the increased traditional carries the past few years, he still has less carries than all of his peers in the respected timeline of him entering the league. And he hasn't had any major career altering injuries that can really kill a career. It's just been little things here and there, and he's still never played in less than 13 games in a season.

The choice is easy for me - extend him for 2 more years and be smarter about how you use him. A few less physically taxing carries a game, and add in more catches that don't start behind the LOS - it's a proven recipe.

 

[Saintcd]

The more I think about it, the more I see Kamara having all the leverage here. The new offensive system is all based off of the running game and being able to sell it. AK knows he is going to be used way more this year than in previous years, and I don’t blame him for trying to secure more money so that he doesn’t hit the market banged up after a full season of carrying the load for this offense.

The longer he holds out, the more everyone else’s value goes down, especially Olave’s. After Kamara, Olave’s really the only guy who has proven he can produce over 1,000 yards, and we’ve seen what it looks like when teams focus in on him. It’s not ideal.

He’s only one player and if the oc is basing his scheme only on Kamara, the team has bigger problems than kamara. Next man up if he wants to sit. We’re not SB contenders at this point anyway, so why burn money on an aging RB that won’t be here when we are able to be contenders. We’re at least 2-3 seasons away. this with no disrespect for kamara, in the end it’s a business for both sides.

 

[Deuuuuce]

He’s only one player and if the oc is basing his scheme only on Kamara, the team has bigger problems than kamara. Next man up if he wants to sit. We’re not SB contenders at this point anyway, so why burn money on an aging RB that won’t be here when we are able to be contenders. We’re at least 2-3 seasons away. this with no disrespect for kamara, in the end it’s a business for both sides.

Next man up, always. I’m just not sure Kendre is ready. Kamara probably sensed that and that could be part of why he decided to hold out.

 

[St. Geezy]

I mean it's not just about one 300lb lineman at full force. In between the tackle runs usually end up with multiple lineman, both offensive and defensive, in the mix, in addition to linebackers and safeties running down hill. That's physically taxing running, objectively.

On the flip side, while not all catches are going to result in a DB bumping you out of bounds, majority of those touches are less taxing on an athlete.

And it's only mostly screens and swing passes for the past two years when we're less creative offensively. When you get him out of the backfield on an option route or a wheel route, particularly vs man coverage, you're not going to have guys running full speed downhill at you like they would if you're catching a swing pass 5 yards behind the LOS. These plays usually end up with one or two players around you, if not just ending up out of bounds.

I've been chomping at the bit about less carries and more catches, but not just more catches for the sake of checking a reception box, but the RIGHT TYPE of catches. Look at his most productive years. Less than 200 carries, and over 80 catches. Look at when his production started to dip - over 200 carries, and never once over 80 catches. It's not hard, the blueprint on him performing at a HOF level was set. We just got away from it.

And it's how you keep his injuries down. I get the stigma of running backs approaching 30, but he's 29 and even with the increased traditional carries the past few years, he still has less carries than all of his peers in the respected timeline of him entering the league. And he hasn't had any major career altering injuries that can really kill a career. It's just been little things here and there, and he's still never played in less than 13 games in a season.

The choice is easy for me - extend him for 2 more years and be smarter about how you use him. A few less physically taxing carries a game, and add in more catches that don't start behind the LOS - it's a proven recipe.

Despite everything I have said in favor of the team side at the negotiation table, I do agree somewhat with your final paragraph. I don’t think you add new years beyond where he currently is, but perhaps you concede some guaranteed cash in 2025, then reassess after that.

 

[rlemieux]

The more I think about it, the more I see Kamara having all the leverage here. The new offensive system is all based off of the running game and being able to sell it. AK knows he is going to be used way more this year than in previous years, and I don’t blame him for trying to secure more money so that he doesn’t hit the market banged up after a full season of carrying the load for this offense.

The longer he holds out, the more everyone else’s value goes down, especially Olave’s. After Kamara, Olave’s really the only guy who has proven he can produce over 1,000 yards, and we’ve seen what it looks like when teams focus in on him. It’s not ideal.

Kamara has little to no leverage. He’s essentially a free agent after this year. Add to that age, fall off of stats and the general perception of RB’s in the NFL you have a bleak future if you’re Kamara. Not to mention the money he loses if he actually holds out.

 

[Deuuuuce]

Kamara has little to no leverage. He’s essentially a free agent after this year. Add to that age, fall off of stats and the general perception of RB’s in the NFL you have a bleak future if you’re Kamara. Not to mention the money he loses if he actually holds out.

He doesn’t have all the leverage. I shouldnt have put it that way, but if the Saints are serious about next season, they will try to get a deal done and get him in to camp ASAP. We have a really rough first 4-5 weeks of the schedule and we can’t afford another slow start.

 

[Merl]

Kamara has little to no leverage. He’s essentially a free agent after this year. Add to that age, fall off of stats and the general perception of RB’s in the NFL you have a bleak future if you’re Kamara. Not to mention the money he loses if he actually holds out.

If the hold out continues into the season he will lose $50K per day for training camp and $629.4K per regular season game he misses. (1/17th of his salary and per game roster bonus)

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

He doesn’t have all the leverage. I shouldnt have put it that way, but if the Saints are serious about next season, they will try to get a deal done and get him in to camp ASAP. We have a really rough first 4-5 weeks of the schedule and we can’t afford another slow start.

FYI. List of free agent backs that are still out there in case he's planning a long holdout...

Dalvin Cook
Cam Akers
Joshua Kelley
Latavius Murray
Kareem Hunt
Matt Breida
Jerick McKinnon
Jakob Johnson
Kevin Smith
Melvin Gordon
Alex Armah
Brandon Bolden
Eno Benjamin
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Deon Jackson