Alvin Kamara skips last minicamp practice over contract dispute (No Guarantees in ‘25); Alvin Kamara is seeking an extension (2 Viewers)

[Snakehead]

If you can’t tell the difference between getting hit by a 300lb lineman vs a dang light LB or skinny CB, then I can’t help you

Dude gets hit by light LBs and skinny DBs and still gets dinged up every year. Good thing he's not getting hit by 300lb lineman regularly or he might not have made it to what will be his 3rd contract.

Yes he's talented and yet he gets dinged up, neither fact can be argued.

Maybe TQS should have been a better blocker so those little LBs and DBs weren't the ones tackling AK.

 

[St. Geezy]

FYI. List of free agent backs that are still out there in case he's planning a long holdout...

Murray please, even without the AK holdout. He’s been criminally underused most of his career and may still be able to fulfill a backup role.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

This article is FFL centric, but contains a lot of good analytics information in regards to RB play drop off.

I’m sure this article based on quantifiable factual data will be dismissed though since it’s a FFL site and doesn’t contain what you want to hear.

The Peak Age for an NFL Running Back

Mike Braude studies the peak age for an NFL running back. The study examines what ages running backs are most likely to produce at a high level.

apexfantasyleagues.com

Here is another analytics study which concludes age 29 is where the sharp drop off begins. Once again, this is factual analytics data, regardless of who published it.

The NFL Running Back Age Cliff – Northwestern Sports Analytics Group

sites.northwestern.edu

And again, I cannot emphasize this enough…I am not saying that this is what will DEFINITELY happen to Kamara. The only point I am making is that this impasse could turn ugly only because these are legitimate factors that the Saints have to weigh, and like many of you on this thread, I am sure it’s not what Kamara wants to hear.

The front office has to analyze risk, and from all accounts and historical data, it appears to be a high probability that they will get burned on a new deal for Alvin.

I think something of note in the article sort of counters your argument. It says “wide receivers have longer careers than running backs”.

That’s what separates Kamara and McCaffrey (because we have to acknowledge that the 49ers extended McCaffrey despite the same knowledge of RB decline). They both are better receivers than every single RB on that list outside of Marshall Faulk, and arguably they both are better than Faulk in their ability to win split outside or in the slot, and not just out of the back field.

I mean sure they payed McCaffrey for what he did last year, but that contract is what they expect of him in the future, suggesting they aren’t worried about a decline not justifying their commitment.

So in theory, could the Saints get production out of Kamara beyond 28 as a receiver? I think the answer is yes

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

taysom hill isn't preparing to hold out though

Now this has to be mentioned. McCaffrey balled out on his previous contract without making a peep, prior to getting his extension. Granted I don’t know the specifics of his contract prior to that, I know that he went out and earned it based on his performance since the trade.

So while I agree w/ Alvin’s stance I also have to admit McCaffrey went about it differently and ultimately Alvin may have to go about it the same way.

 

[Snakehead]

I think something of note in the article sort of counters your argument. It says “wide receivers have longer careers than running backs”.

That’s what separates Kamara and McCaffrey (because we have to acknowledge that the 49ers extended McCaffrey despite the same knowledge of RB decline). They both are better receivers than every single RB on that list outside of Marshall Faulk, and arguably they both are better than Faulk in their ability to win split outside or in the slot, and not just out of the back field.

I mean sure they payed McCaffrey for what he did last year, but that contract is what they expect of him in the future, suggesting they aren’t worried about a decline not justifying their commitment.

So in theory, could the Saints get production out of Kamara beyond 28 as a receiver? I think the answer is yes

I'd love to see AK transitioned to more of a WR role. Maybe go more Wideback this year and Slot WR for the future. If they do that, he should be able to play into his 30s.

I've always liked the Kevin Faulk role for him, but his receiving skills are superior so a more WR role could work.

With Taysom taking more of a RB role and KM in the building with JW, AK could transition to a different role to better utilize his skillset without banging him between the tackles.

 

[St. Geezy]

I think something of note in the article sort of counters your argument. It says “wide receivers have longer careers than running backs”.

That’s what separates Kamara and McCaffrey (because we have to acknowledge that the 49ers extended McCaffrey despite the same knowledge of RB decline). They both are better receivers than every single RB on that list outside of Marshall Faulk, and arguably they both are better than Faulk in their ability to win split outside or in the slot, and not just out of the back field.

I mean sure they payed McCaffrey for what he did last year, but that contract is what they expect of him in the future, suggesting they aren’t worried about a decline not justifying their commitment.

So in theory, could the Saints get production out of Kamara beyond 28 as a receiver? I think the answer is yes

WRs are on the perimeter, catching passes downfield, many times not even being tackled after receptions, and almost always getting tackled by the “skinny” corners referred to earlier. lol

Many of AK’s “receptions” are just glorified handoffs on traditional screens, bubble screens, swing passes, etc.

It’s not like AK is lining up out wide and running 10 to 15 yard outs and immediately stepping out of bounds often.

 

[SweetT]

Dude gets his by light LBs and skinny DBs and still gets dinged up every year. Good thing he's not getting hit by 300lb lineman regularly or he might not have made it to what will be his 3rd contract.

Yes he's talented and yet he gets dinged up, neither fact can be argued.

Maybe TQS should have been a better blocker so those little LBs and DBs weren't the ones tackling AK.

Well, I always said the legend of “Blockzilla” was over exaggerated.

 

[St. Geezy]

I'd love to see AK transitioned to more of a WR role. Maybe go more Wideback this year and Slot WR for the future. If they do that, he should be able to play into his 30s.

I've always liked the Kevin Faulk role for him, but his receiving skills are superior so a more WR role could work.

With Taysom taking more of a RB role and KM in the building with JW, AK could transition to a different role to better utilize his skillset without banging him between the tackles.

This I would agree with. It would certainly help extend his career to start seeing more action from the slot, but it sounds like they may have envisioned more of a traditional bell cow, Christian McCaffrey type role for him.

 

[woohoosaint]

 

[SweetT]

WRs are on the perimeter, catching passes downfield, many times not even being tackled after receptions, and almost always getting tackled by the “skinny” corners referred to earlier. lol

Many of AK’s “receptions” are just glorified handoffs on traditional screens, bubble screens, swing passes, etc.

It’s not like AK is lining up out wide and running 10 to 15 yard outs and immediately stepping out of bounds often.

The average height and weight of an NFL CB is:
5’11 and 193lbs

AK41 is:
5’10 215lbs.

Total of a 22lb weight advantage.

So, yes CBs are “skinny” by way of a NFL defense as a whole.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

WRs are on the perimeter, catching passes downfield, many times not even being tackled after receptions, and almost always getting tackled by the “skinny” corners referred to earlier. lol

Many of AK’s “receptions” are just glorified handoffs on traditional screens, bubble screens, swing passes, etc.

It’s not like AK is lining up out wide and running 10 to 15 yard outs and immediately stepping out of bounds often.

Agreed, but he could. It’s not his fault the Saints reduced his WR snaps the last two years under Carmichael.

Referencing my post from a month ago, there’s untapped potential for Kamara

Alvin Kamara - The second receiving option on this list to average over 5.0 ypc (6.6). AK is at his best running choice routes over the MOF where he's still got the juice to beat LB's. Where there's room to unlock him as a receiver is that over the last two years his usage in the slot and out wide decreased to single digits. In 2023 it was (5.2%) and (5.2%) respectively, and in 2022 (4.2%) and (6.5%). From 2017 to 2021 he averaged (15.4%) snaps from the slot and (15%) out wide. Perhaps this is what he was alluding to when he said "we don't play matchup ball anymore", as he was no longer used as chess piece, just a battering ram. Kubiak should be able to move him all around the formation in 21 personnel since he can still hand it off to Kendre Miller or Jamaal Williams.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

This I would agree with. It would certainly help extend his career to start seeing more action from the slot, but it sounds like they may have envisioned more of a traditional bell cow, Christian McCaffrey type role for him.

But the 49ers aren’t even doing that this year w/ McCaffrey. Shanahan has gone out of his way to point out they’ll be decreasing his snaps this year, why wouldn’t they, they need to protect their investment.

 

[RebSaint]

I've not been as optimistic about this season as many others, and it all revolves around the "could bes" of veteran and young Saints players having to step up and play better on both sides of the ball.

I'm torn on this issue. In addition to the other metrics, without Kamara, where's the production going to come from?

On the one hand, without Kamara, the Saints will have to replace at least 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs. Assuming that Kamara will have a renaissance of sorts and be more productive, let's add another 200 total yards and 5 TDs.

The "could be" here is 1,500 yards and 11 TDs, assuming Kamara stays healthy and thrives in the new system.

Not paying him and him sitting for a year means that lots of other unproven players will have to ramp up their individual production to match or exceed Kamara's numbers.

Let's say he slips some and misses time. I think he at least gets a 1,000 scrimmage yds and 3-4 TDs.

The Question becomes can the Saints get Kamara's potential and baseline from the likes of Olave/Shaheed/Perry/Means/Wilson/Miller/Williams/Johnson/Moreau/Haller, etc?

I don't doubt for a minute that Kamara has a bit left in the tank to be just as productive, if not more in this new system, but that decline for RBs is mighty steep.

If the franchise were in a much better cap situation, or closer to winning a SB, I'd say pay him what he wants. But the FO has shown signs of approaching the cap with a bit more austerity and creating more cap room to not have re-do contracts to kick the proverbial can down the road on paying players.

It's a tough call, but I think if Kamara is serious about a holdout, the only person he's going to hurt is himself based on similar experiences.

 

[Saint Jack]

 

[Saint Jack]

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