Analysis: Facing losses, Clinton recasts (1 Viewer)

DavidM

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By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 52 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has found a lot of ways to explain her string of losses to Sen. Barack Obama.

Caucus states, the former first lady says, are undemocratic and cater only to party activists. Southern states, like Louisiana, have "a very strong and very proud African-American electorate" naturally predisposed to favor a black candidate. And so-called "red" states like North Dakota, Idaho and Kansas — all of which Obama won on Super Tuesday — will never choose a Democrat in the general election anyway.

...

The list of excuses is long, but the justifications are wearing thin as Obama was expected to win primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia on Tuesday after a four-state sweep last weekend plus the Virgin Islands. All the contests Clinton has suggested don't count are proving in size and scope that they do.

"Every day the numbers show the true state of the race," Democratic strategist Jenny Backus said. "Obama is moving and gathering a bigger coalition, and Hillary's coalition is diminishing."


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080212/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_dems_analysis
 

SoonerJim

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Whatever's she's doing, she needs to keep doing it. Firing Mark Penn would send a message, but she is what she is.
 

JimEverett

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Whether some people admit it or not - Clinton has a decent argument.
While its true that Obama seems to do better with independent voters, in a race with McCain that ability is diminshed somewhat.
And Obama has so far proved to have little success with working class Democrats, the backbone of the Party come general election time. These Reagan Democrats are necessary in the battleground states - where they are often a rather substantial voting block.
Obama's message doesn't reach them. His message that he can keep all of Clinton's voters while she cannot do the same with his rings false. The Volvo-driving Yuppie set, the backbone, along with the African Americans, of Obama's campaign will universally go with Clinton. The Reagan Democrats have a real good chance of going to McCain in bulk.
 
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Whether some people admit it or not - Clinton has a decent argument.
While its true that Obama seems to do better with independent voters, in a race with McCain that ability is diminshed somewhat.
And Obama has so far proved to have little success with working class Democrats, the backbone of the Party come general election time. These Reagan Democrats are necessary in the battleground states - where they are often a rather substantial voting block.
Obama's message doesn't reach them. His message that he can keep all of Clinton's voters while she cannot do the same with his rings false. The Volvo-driving Yuppie set, the backbone, along with the African Americans, of Obama's campaign will universally go with Clinton. The Reagan Democrats have a real good chance of going to McCain in bulk.
You seem to make a habit of completely discounting the conventional wisdom without providing any evidence to back up your assertions.

Clinton's biggest problem, the moderate white male, is almost certain to go with McCain over Clinton. She has had no success at all with them, while Obama has cleaned up. If anything, they are more likely to decide the election than the traditional blue collar voter, who is no less likely to back Obama than an African-American would be to back Clinton. I really don't see how you can make the argument that Obama's voters are the reliable Democrats, while Hillary's voters are likely to go with McCain. Isn't Hillary's argument that she is going to rebound in Ohio and Texas precisely because the Democratic electorate in those states is more reflective of the traditional Democratic voting bloc?
 

RJ in Lafayette

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Jim, you and I slightly disagree. Obama will keep a higher percentage of those voting for Hillary than Hillary will keep of those voting for Obama. Obama will lose some of Hillary's older and other voters who will not vote for a black candidate. It's not a matter of policy specifics or issues.

There is still a substantial percentage of the electorate who will not vote for a black candidate. However, a high percentage of those in that grouping will vote for McCain in November regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.

But Hillary has a very real ceiling of people who will not vote for her because of her husband and the feeling that we have had enough of political dynasties in thuis country.
 

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Over the past few days, the Clinton campaign has made the following two arguments:

a) Caucuses don't really count as much as primaries because, "the caucus system is undemocratic and caters mostly to party activists."

b) The superdelegates -- which consist only primarily of party activists -- should not follow the primary results but instead, "should make an independent decision based on who they thought would be the strongest candidate and president."
http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/003706.html
 

daybreaker

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Who cares if the "working class Democrats" prefer Hillary over Obama? It's not like those people are ever going to vote for anyone without a "D" by their name. Obama will get ALL the same votes Hillary would have gotten, but the inverse is not true. Several of Obama's supporters, myself included, will vote for McCain if he faces Hillary.
 

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Jim they may disagree with you but one thing I will agree with you on is that I have no idea what Obama's message is. And as a front runner how is that possible? Can I go read his website (yes and I have) but nothing sticks. I doubt I am alone.
 

DMaestro

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Jim they may disagree with you but one thing I will agree with you on is that I have no idea what Obama's message is. And as a front runner how is that possible? Can I go read his website (yes and I have) but nothing sticks. I doubt I am alone.
And what is Hillary's message (choose one)?

a.) "I have 35 years of experience [going back to her graduation from law school, and including such gems as failed health care reform, a vote against a bill protecting people from creditors, and support for the Iraq War], so I'm more ready to lead the country on day one"?

b.) "It may take another Clinton to clean up after another Bush"

c.) "My husband is Bill, and the economy was pretty good when he was president, so how's about giving ME a shot?"
 

Sabine

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Jim they may disagree with you but one thing I will agree with you on is that I have no idea what Obama's message is. And as a front runner how is that possible? Can I go read his website (yes and I have) but nothing sticks. I doubt I am alone.
You're not alone.
 

jpcdolphan

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Whether some people admit it or not - Clinton has a decent argument.
While its true that Obama seems to do better with independent voters, in a race with McCain that ability is diminshed somewhat.
I don't want to admit it and she has done nothing to substantiate these arguments.

Clinton is closer to McCain in tenor than Obama is, so if people are choosing Obama over Hillary, why would they suddenly switch to McCain? They would have just voted for Hillary from the get go.

As you noted, Obama does better than Hillary with independents so, regardless if that advantage is diminished by McCain (likely, but still questionable), how would voting for Hillary for the Democrat nomination be an advantage from that standpoint?
 

NCSaint

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And what is Hillary's message (choose one)?

a.) "I have 35 years of experience [going back to her graduation from law school, and including such gems as failed health care reform, a vote against a bill protecting people from creditors, and support for the Iraq War], so I'm more ready to lead the country on day one"?

b.) "It may take another Clinton to clean up after another Bush"

c.) "My husband is Bill, and the economy was pretty good when he was president, so how's about giving ME a shot?"
LOL classic...blame Obamas lack of a message and plan on Hillary. Classic.
 

DMaestro

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LOL classic...blame Obamas lack of a message and plan on Hillary. Classic.
No....you're just holding Obama to a standard few of the other candidates have met (Huckabee, incidentally, probably has the message that stands out most). But Obama's message is plenty clear to me, and apparently many others. Being measured in tone does not indicate a lack of substance.
 

Sabine

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And what is Hillary's message (choose one)?

a.) "I have 35 years of experience [going back to her graduation from law school, and including such gems as failed health care reform, a vote against a bill protecting people from creditors, and support for the Iraq War], so I'm more ready to lead the country on day one"?

b.) "It may take another Clinton to clean up after another Bush"

c.) "My husband is Bill, and the economy was pretty good when he was president, so how's about giving ME a shot?"
Let's do this issue by issue, shall we? You pick one (economy, education, abortion, immigration, etc.) and start a thread. Lay out the issue in an unbiased manner, including current laws/hurdles affecting that issue, what has worked and what has not...... Then, pick a candidate and tell his/her history on that issue (bills, voting history, etc), current position, and any other pertinent info (e.g. how it will be paid for).
 

dapperdan

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It's pretty clear that Hillary has a huge problem. She's going to lose all of the primaries/caucases betweeen now and Texas/Ohio in March. She's projected to win Texas and Ohio now, but then Rudy was projected to win Florida in early January. Big Mo is a tough thing to fight, and Obama's got the Mo, and he's going to have the Mo going into early March. This downtime until March only helps Obama's Mo.

Hillary has to turn back the Obama momentum without the benefit of a win in a primary as a building block.

With Hillary backed into a corner, do we begin to see the negative campaigning begin? She brought on Maggie Williams, who's a brawler. These next three weeks could get very interesting.
 
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NCSaint

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No....you're just holding Obama to a standard few of the other candidates have met (Huckabee, incidentally, probably has the message that stands out most). But Obama's message is plenty clear to me, and apparently many others.
Nope. I'm really not. Why isn't that his supporters say that? Ah life is so unfair for this poor black candidate. He is being held to a higher standard. Please.

So what is his message again that plenty of people get? Raise taxes maybe? I can't get much beyond that.

FWIW - Hillary doesn't get my vote. and Huckabee majored in miracles right.

Looks like it is going to McCain sadly.
 

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